KABUL EMBASSY BLAST UNLIKELY TO SPARK HARSH INDIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 001934 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2018 TAGS: PREL PARM PTER PGOV PN ID SUBJECT: KABUL EMBASSY BLAST UNLIKELY TO SPARK HARSH INDIAN RESPONSE REF: NEW DELHI 1921 Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 ( B and D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Indian reaction thus far has been muted to the July 7 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul, which killed four Indian personnel and at least 37 others, and the implication by President Karzai and others that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency was behind the blast. There has been a strong show of sympathy for those killed in the attack, but as Pakistani High Commissioner Shadid Malik told the Ambassador in a July 10 meeting (reftel),it does not appear to have derailed the ongoing warming in the India-Pakistan bilateral relationship. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Pakistani High Commissioner Shadid Malik shared with the Ambassador on July 10 that he believes the July 7 attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul and subsequent fingerpointing by President Karzai and others towards Pakistan's ISI will not have a negative effect on the overall India-Pakistan relationship. The HC observed that Foreign Secretary Bashir will visit India for the fifth round of Composite Dialogue talks on July 21-22. In short, said the HC, "We are going through the best phase of our bilateral relationship." The July 17th meeting on the Kashmir Line of Control Confidence Building Measures will also go ahead as scheduled. Referring to Prime Minister Gilani's statement that Pakistan was not responsible for the attack, Malik stressed that both Pakistan and India realize it is not in anyone's interest to destabilize Afghanistan. ¶3. (SBU) The High Commissioner's views track with those of our contacts in the political and media spheres. No senior officials have leaped to make public statements referring to murky "regional actors," as they might readily have done in the case of past terrorist incidents. Our contacts in Parliament, academia, and the media have postulated in private conversations that Pakistan would not have a reason to wreak such havoc, but some have speculated that India's rise economically and politically and its arrival in the "big league" might be enough to spur some individuals to try to poison the regional environment. One senior editor's response to us was, "I think this is high time that both countries should stop this blame game." Nevertheless, a number of contacts believe there should be an investigation by the international community. ¶4. (SBU) Press: There has been considerable sympathic media coverage of the officials killed in the blast, Defense Attache R.D. Mehta and Indian Foreign Service Officer Venkateswara Rao, as well as Indian security personnel H.A.S. Pathania and Roop Singh. Most official statements have concentrated on assurances that India will continue to maintain a strong presence in Afghanistan. The press coverage also highlighted the United States' offer to help in the investigations. In general, however, press coverage of the Left parties' withdrawal from the ruling coalition in the wake of the government's proceeding with the Civil Nuclear Agreement with the United States has pushed speculation about who orchestrated the embassy attack off India's front pages. Most editorials touching on the tragedy held the Afghan government at fault for failing to protect the Embassy, and speculated that the attackers and their supporters were trying to stop Afghanistan's development and India's role in it. MULFORD