Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
08NEWDELHI1894
2008-07-08 12:26:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy New Delhi
Cable title:
JAMMU AND KASHMIR'S CONGRESS-LED GOVERNMENT FALLS
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001894
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER KDEM IN
SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR'S CONGRESS-LED GOVERNMENT FALLS
REF: NEW DELHI 1799
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001894
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER KDEM IN
SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR'S CONGRESS-LED GOVERNMENT FALLS
REF: NEW DELHI 1799
1. (SBU) Summary: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Congress Party
Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad resigned on July 7, thereby
ending the rule of his Congress-led coalition government in
the state. Azad's coalition government lost its majority
when its key ally, the People's Democratic Party (PDP),
pulled its support on June 28 in response to the government's
decision to grant land to Hindu pilgrims in predominately
Muslim Kashmir (reftel). After several days of politicking,
and violent street demonstrations from Muslims and Hindus
alike over the land transfer, Azad realized he could not find
the votes to win a confidence motion and submitted his
resignation to Governor N.N. Vohra. Azad's downfall
represents another blow to the Congress Party, which has
recently lost state elections in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat,
Karnataka, and now faces a failed government in J&K. This
bodes poorly for Congress, both in J&K, which heads to the
polls in October, and nationally with polls due in May 2009
at the latest. End Summary.
Timeline of Events: Land Transfer Stirs up Emotions
-------------- --------------
2. (U) The J&K government transferred 100 acres of state land
to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) for the use of Hindu
pilgrims in predominately Muslim Kashmir on May 26. Muslims
in many Kashmir localities demonstrated against the land
transfer throughout June. Opposition reached a fever pitch
by June 25 when police fired on the demonstrators, killing
two and injuring 70. Mass strikes and sit-ins ensued which
brought the state to a standstill. On June 28, a Congress
Party coalition ally, the People's Democratic Party (PDP),
withdrew support from the government to formally protest the
land transfer. In keeping with constitutional law, Governor
Vohra then called on Chief Minister Azad to demonstrate his
majority in the Assembly by July 7. In the face of ongoing
protests, the Congress-led government reversed itself on July
1, taking the land back from the SASB. This in turn led to
violent demonstrations in Hindu-majority Jammu. Protests
continued, though with decreasing fervor, until July 7 when
Azad resigned, unable to muster the votes to win a confidence
motion.
Governor's Rule Likely
--------------
3. (SBU) Comment: Governor Vohra accepted Azad's resignation
but asked him to remain in a caretaker role until other
arrangements can be made. This in all likelihood means
Governor's Rule, to be announced in the coming days. In any
other Indian state, the Congress may have tried to play
politics and somehow let Azad remain in a caretaker role
until elections in October. But given the sensitivities and
demonstrated political volatilities in J&K, any decision
other than Governor's Rule would likely backfire on Congress
and enrage the opposition. Most political analysts believe
the Congress party will lose seats in the October elections.
However, due to the political math in J&K, the Congress may
still find itself in a ruling coalition with either the PDP
or the National Conference after October polls, albeit as a
junior partner.
National Implications: Congress Loses Another State
-------------- --------------
4. (SBU) Comment Continued: The loss of another state
portends ill for the struggling Congress Party. With
elections due in October in J&K, it's possible Congress could
"lose" the state twice. This comes on the heels of the
Congress Party's state electoral defeats in Himachal Pradesh,
Gujarat and Karnataka. The only silver lining in the J&K
affair has been the much larger story of the Congress Party's
success in having potentially saved itself and nuclear deal
at the center. Positive nuclear deal developments have
NEW DELHI 00001894 002 OF 002
garnered all the headlines and made J&K a (still big)
secondary story. This is of course little comfort to
Congress Party leaders who face a fragmented polity in the
2009 general elections with a surging BJP and deeply embedded
regional parties. End Comment.
MULFORD
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PTER KDEM IN
SUBJECT: JAMMU AND KASHMIR'S CONGRESS-LED GOVERNMENT FALLS
REF: NEW DELHI 1799
1. (SBU) Summary: Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) Congress Party
Chief Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad resigned on July 7, thereby
ending the rule of his Congress-led coalition government in
the state. Azad's coalition government lost its majority
when its key ally, the People's Democratic Party (PDP),
pulled its support on June 28 in response to the government's
decision to grant land to Hindu pilgrims in predominately
Muslim Kashmir (reftel). After several days of politicking,
and violent street demonstrations from Muslims and Hindus
alike over the land transfer, Azad realized he could not find
the votes to win a confidence motion and submitted his
resignation to Governor N.N. Vohra. Azad's downfall
represents another blow to the Congress Party, which has
recently lost state elections in Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat,
Karnataka, and now faces a failed government in J&K. This
bodes poorly for Congress, both in J&K, which heads to the
polls in October, and nationally with polls due in May 2009
at the latest. End Summary.
Timeline of Events: Land Transfer Stirs up Emotions
-------------- --------------
2. (U) The J&K government transferred 100 acres of state land
to the Shri Amarnath Shrine Board (SASB) for the use of Hindu
pilgrims in predominately Muslim Kashmir on May 26. Muslims
in many Kashmir localities demonstrated against the land
transfer throughout June. Opposition reached a fever pitch
by June 25 when police fired on the demonstrators, killing
two and injuring 70. Mass strikes and sit-ins ensued which
brought the state to a standstill. On June 28, a Congress
Party coalition ally, the People's Democratic Party (PDP),
withdrew support from the government to formally protest the
land transfer. In keeping with constitutional law, Governor
Vohra then called on Chief Minister Azad to demonstrate his
majority in the Assembly by July 7. In the face of ongoing
protests, the Congress-led government reversed itself on July
1, taking the land back from the SASB. This in turn led to
violent demonstrations in Hindu-majority Jammu. Protests
continued, though with decreasing fervor, until July 7 when
Azad resigned, unable to muster the votes to win a confidence
motion.
Governor's Rule Likely
--------------
3. (SBU) Comment: Governor Vohra accepted Azad's resignation
but asked him to remain in a caretaker role until other
arrangements can be made. This in all likelihood means
Governor's Rule, to be announced in the coming days. In any
other Indian state, the Congress may have tried to play
politics and somehow let Azad remain in a caretaker role
until elections in October. But given the sensitivities and
demonstrated political volatilities in J&K, any decision
other than Governor's Rule would likely backfire on Congress
and enrage the opposition. Most political analysts believe
the Congress party will lose seats in the October elections.
However, due to the political math in J&K, the Congress may
still find itself in a ruling coalition with either the PDP
or the National Conference after October polls, albeit as a
junior partner.
National Implications: Congress Loses Another State
-------------- --------------
4. (SBU) Comment Continued: The loss of another state
portends ill for the struggling Congress Party. With
elections due in October in J&K, it's possible Congress could
"lose" the state twice. This comes on the heels of the
Congress Party's state electoral defeats in Himachal Pradesh,
Gujarat and Karnataka. The only silver lining in the J&K
affair has been the much larger story of the Congress Party's
success in having potentially saved itself and nuclear deal
at the center. Positive nuclear deal developments have
NEW DELHI 00001894 002 OF 002
garnered all the headlines and made J&K a (still big)
secondary story. This is of course little comfort to
Congress Party leaders who face a fragmented polity in the
2009 general elections with a surging BJP and deeply embedded
regional parties. End Comment.
MULFORD