NEW DELHI WEEKLY ECON OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK OF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001845 SIPDIS SENSITIVE USDOC FOR ITA/MAC/OSA/LDROKER/ASTERN/KRUDD DEPT OF ENERGY FOR A/S KHARBERT, TCUTLER, CZAMUDA, RLUHAR DEPT PASS TO USTR CLILIENFELD/AADLER DEPT PASS TO TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF SOUTH ASIA MNUGENT TREASURY PASS TO FRB SAN FRANCISCO/TERESA CURRAN STATE FOR SCA/INS AND EB/TRA JEFFREY HORWITZ AND TOM ENGLE USDA PASS FAS/OCRA/RADLER/BEAN/CARVER/RIKER EEB/CIP DAS GROSS, FSAEED, MSELINGER USTR FOR CATHERINE HINCKLEY E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EAGR EFIN EINV EPET ETRD SENV IN ECPS BEXP SUBJECT: NEW DELHI WEEKLY ECON OFFICE HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE WEEK OF JUNE 30 TO JULY 3, 2008 ¶1. (U) Below is a compilation of economic highlights from Embassy New Delhi for the week of June 30 to July 3, 2008, including the following: -- INDIA AND JAPAN INK CURRENCY SWAP DEAL -- DRAFT CCI REGULATIONS EXCLUDE SMALL MERGERS -- INDIAN DOMESTIC CARRIERS FORCED TO INCREASE AIR FARES -- NEW DIRECTOR GENERAL OF CIVIL AVIATION (DGCA) -- NEW FERTILIZER POLICY - SMALL POSITIVE STEPS, MORE AWAITING --UPDATE ON INDIA'S EXTERNAL SECTOR -- CHENNAI'S DRIVERS PANIC OVER FUEL SHORTAGE -- CATERPILLAR TO INVEST USD 200 MILLION IN TAMIL NADU INDIA AND JAPAN INK CURRENCY SWAP DEAL -------------- ¶2. (U) India and Japan signed a bilateral swap arrangement (BSA) at Basel in Switzerland on June 29 to help safeguard their economies from any future balance of payments crisis. The BSA, signed by Reserve Bank of India's Governor Reddy and Bank of Japan's Governor Shirakawa, enables both countries to swap yen and rupees against the US dollar for up to $3 billion. In practice, as needed, Japan will accept rupees and give US dollars to India while India will accept yen against dollars. According to a joint press release, "the arrangement aims at addressing short-term liquidity difficulties and supplementing the existing international financial arrangements as one of the efforts in strengthening mutual co-operation between Japan and India." A currency swap agreement to address the short-term liquidity crunch was first announced in August 2007 during former Japanese Prime Minister Abe's visit to India. ¶3. (U) During early negotiations on the BSA, Japan insisted that a swap agreement would only be possible if both countries had IMF-support programs. For several years now, the IMF has not had a program in India. In the end, the GOI successfully negotiated a swap agreement to allow up to 20 percent of the maximum amount ($3 billion) of drawing to be disbursed without an IMF-support program. This is India's first-ever currency swap agreement. Japan has similar arrangements with countries like China, South Korea, and Thailand. Some Asian countries, including China, South Korea, and ASEAN members, are negotiating arrangements to convert bilateral BSA pacts into a multilateral scheme. India may consider joining the proposed ASEAN-plus-three currency swap scheme in the future. DRAFT CCI REGULATIONS EXCLUDE SMALL MERGERS -------------- ¶4. (U) The Competition Commission of India (CCI),likely to be operational by the end of 2008, has released amended draft regulations regarding mergers and acquisitions of companies. The CCI has proposed that the commission will only be responsible for approving large mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Small and insignificant M&As will no longer require the CCI's approval, as had been earlier proposed under the Competition Act amendments passed in September 2007. Under the proposed rules, a large company will be allowed to acquire a smaller firm with a turnover of up to $140 million (or assets of up to $47 million) without having to get a clearance from CCI, even if the combined turnover of the two companies exceeds $700 million - a previously defined limit under the amended Competition Act for notifying and securing approval from CCI. To ensure CCI rules are aligned with those of the stock market regulator, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI),firms would be allowed to acquire up to 15 percent equity in other companies (without a controlling stake) or up to 5 percent a year without having to inform the CCI. These and other draft regulations have been designed to ensure the CCI does not act as a bottleneck to merger activity, and the pace of small M&A activity continues smoothly. Draft regulations are available on the CCI's website: http://www.competition-commission-india.nic.i n/ INDIAN DOMESTIC CARRIERS FORCED TO INCREASE AIR FARES -------------- -------------- NEW DELHI 00001845 002 OF 004 ¶5. (U) Rising aviation turbine fuel (ATF) prices have led to higher operating costs for air carriers in India, which in turn has resulted in higher air fares of 10 percent and reduced passenger growth of 11 percent over the last few months, according to media sources. This has adversely impacted the low cost carrier model in India and has retarded future growth prospects in the aviation industry. Budget airlines serve roughly half of India's 38 million domestic passenger market. Last year, India witnessed a growth of 30 percent in air passengers, largely due to cheap fares offered by these budget carriers. ¶6. (U) Public sector oil marketing companies have again raised the prices of ATF by 4 to 7 percent for domestic airlines and by 5 percent for international carriers as of July 1. ATF prices for domestic operators include customs duty of 10 percent, excise duty of 8.16 percent and local sales tax of 23 percent. Recently, four Indian State governments - Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, Maharashtra and Rajasthan, reduced the sales tax on ATF to 4 percent. ATF prices for domestic operators in India are approximately 60 to 70 percent higher than international benchmarks. ¶7. (U) Most domestic carriers have announced fare hikes even as data on air passenger growth showed a deceleration to 6.8 percent in May as opposed to a high of 35.7 percent growth rate in the same month in 2007. With mounting losses and dwindling investor confidence, some of the airlines have no choice but to cut down on scheduled flights. The Indian civil aviation industry is expected to lose of over $ 2.2 billion this financial year. Jet Airways CEO Wolfgang Prock-Schauer said publicly that it is unlikely that prices will come down soon. NEW DIRECTOR GENERAL OF CIVIL AVIATION (DGCA) -------------- ¶8. (U) The Union Public Service Commission has selected Dr. Zaidi, an Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officer of the 1976 batch from the Uttar Pradesh cadre, to succeed Kanu Gohain as DGCA. Dr. Zaidi is currently India's representative to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in Montreal and earlier served as a Joint Secretary in the Ministry of Civil Aviation. A.K. Chopra, the current Joint Director-General at the DGCA, has filed a petition with the Central Administrative Tribunal (CAT),challenging the entire selection process and guidelines followed for appointment of the new DGCA. Chopra who is an experienced officer in the aviation sector strongly feels the regulation that made him ineligible to compete for the DGCA post could have been waived as it was done to accommodate Zaidi. Post expects Zaidi to be the final appointee. NEW FERTILIZER POLICY - SMALL POSITIVE STEPS, MORE AWAITING -------------- ¶9. (U) Last week, the Indian Cabinet approved the Department of Fertilizer's new subsidy policy for phosphate and potassium fertilizers. The old policy, which expired this past March, resulted in a difficult situation where manufacturers lacked government approved cost for raw materials and finished fertilizers to refer to. Some Indian states witnessed shortages of complex fertilizers in recent weeks as fertilizer companies stopped imports of raw materials such as sulphur and phosphoric acid due to high global prices. ¶10. (U) Di-ammonium phosphate (DAP),urea, and muriate of potash (MoP),are the three most widely used fertilizers in the country. Under the new scheme, retrospectively effective April 1, 2008, subsidies paid to domestic producers of DAP has been brought in line with imported DAP. The domestic cost of producing the phosphate component of a fertilizer will be linked to the international cost of production of phosphorus as calculated from imported DAP. A similar pricing mechanism is likely to be utilized for MoP as well. In FY 2007-08, India produced 32.3 million tons of fertilizer and imported 14 million tons (with DAP imports alone totaling 8 million tons). The previous policy allowed only a small price margin making NEW DELHI 00001845 003 OF 004 domestic production unviable and increased dependence on imported fertilizers. ¶11. (U) The new policy also brings two new products, triple super phosphate fertilizer (a cheaper substitute for DAP) and ammonium sulphate under the subsidy scheme. A buffer stock of 350,000 tons of DAP and 100,000 tons of muriate of potash will be required to be kept by the Department of Fertilizer for meeting any exigency. The policy also introduces an "outlier" concept under which importers contracting phosphate and potassium fertilizers at prices lower than the industry's collectively bargained average import prices will be entitled to retain 65 percent of the price difference, with the remaining balance of 35 percent going to the government. ¶12. (U) According to the press note of the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, the concession scheme will allow the government to save $274 million (Rs 12 billion) on subsidy payments. Analysts indicate that given the rise in input costs, coupled with the fact that retail prices have remained unchanged since 2002, India's subsidy bill will continue to rise. The fertilizer subsidy bill is estimated to reach $22 billion (Rs 950 billion),versus the budgeted amount of $7.3 billion (Rs 310 billion) for FY 2008-09. The additional amount of subsidy will be kept off-balance sheet and paid in bonds to fertilizer companies. ¶13. (U) Comment: The new policy seeks to support the balanced use of nutrients and to encourage the domestic fertilizer industry to seek long-term supply arrangements for fertilizer raw materials, intermediates, and finished products. Ultimately, however, since the end use - the farmer - still pays only a fraction of the actual cost of this product, inefficient resource allocation continues on a large scale. In addition, despite cosmetic attempts to keep the expenditure off the GOI's fiscal account, the damage to the GOI fiscal situation will increase if international fertilizer prices remain high. Whether this policy will continue after Indian domestic elections take place remains to be seen. End Comment. UPDATE ON INDIA'S EXTERNAL SECTOR -------------- ¶14. (U) The Reserve Bank of India's data released this week shows that India's current account deficit (CAD) widened in FY 2007-08 to $17.4 billion, about 1.5% of the GDP, versus $9.8 billion, or 1.1% of GDP in the previous year. The CAD continued to be financed by a comfortable margin with capital inflows of $26 billion and $110 billion in Q4 and full-year FY 2007-08, respectively. The immediate cause of the higher-than-expected CAD was a sharply higher merchandise trade deficit for Q4 FY 2007-08 at USD 23.8 billion. The full-year merchandise trade deficit rose to $90 billion from $63 billion. In the first two months of the current fiscal year, the trade deficit further widened to $20.6 billion, largely due to 50.8 percent rise in oil imports and a sharp slowdown in exports growth in May. ¶15. (U) Latest Ministry of Commerce's data shows that after registering a robust growth of 31.8 percent in April 2008, India's exports slowed in May, registering a growth of 12.9 percent in dollar terms at $13.8 billion. Exports slowed due to lower global demand, a ban on food grain and steel exports. The rupee depreciated nominally five percent in May, but with inflation currently at 11.4% rupee appreciation continues in real terms, further eroding export competitiveness. Imports remained strong in May at $24.5 billion growing by 27.1% in dollar terms over the same period last year. Cumulatively exports between April-May grew by 21.7 percent to reach $28 billion while imports rose by 31.7 percent at $48.8 billion. The large increase in imports was mainly caused by oil imports valuing $16.5 billion. ¶16. (U) The 30 percent growth in invisible earnings at $72.7 billion helped reduce the margin of the CAD. Private transfers, mainly including remittances from overseas Indians ($42.8 billion) and software service exports ($37 billion) were primarily responsible for the strong rise in invisibles. ¶17. (U) Buoyant capital flows in FY 2007-08 were led by foreign investment and external commercial borrowing. $29.3 billion was NEW DELHI 00001845 004 OF 004 portfolio investments, while foreign direct investment (FDI) totaled $15.5 billion. Indian companies acquired nearly $22 billion through external commercial borrowings during the fiscal year. However, during the final quarter portfolio flows were negative by -$3.7 billion and external commercial borrowing, hampered by restrictions imposed in August 2007, dropped 24 percent over the previous quarter to $4.8 billion. This left FDI as the largest component of capital inflows for the quarter at $6.4 billion. The surge in capital inflows led to an additional $110.5 billion in foreign exchange reserves during FY 2007-08, including valuation changes. On June 27, total foreign exchange reserves totaled $312.5 billion. ¶18. (U) India's outstanding external debt rose to $222.1 billion at end March 2008, compared with $169.7 billion at end March 2007. The external debt to GDP ratio rose to 18.8 percent at end March 2008 from 17.8 percent at end March 2007. The rise in debt was mainly due to external borrowings by companies to finance technological upgrading and capacity expansion. Long-term debt on a residual basis accounted for $137 billion or 62.4 of the total debt during the year, while the remainder, short-term debt stood at $82 billion or 37.6 percent. Rupee debt continued to remain constant at $2 billion. The ratio of foreign exchange reserves to short-term external debt rose to 140 percent from 117 percent in the previous year. CHENNAI'S DRIVERS PANIC OVER FUEL SHORTAGE -------------- ¶19. (U) Chennai's drivers faced long queues at the pump on June 30 and July 1 as fears of a "fuel shortage" gripped the public. Some customers waited hours for a fill-up of gasoline; diesel was even harder or impossible to obtain. Recent price hikes, the unavailability of regular-grade petrol, supply disruptions, and fears of the impact of a national truckers' strike (which began on July 2) all apparently combined to cause the panic-buying in Chennai and some other cities in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. The long queues generally disappeared on July 2 following government assurances that fuel supplies were not in danger. ¶20. (U) An executive from the Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL, which runs the largest network of retail gas stations in South India) told Consulate Chennai that delays in awarding contracts to coastal shippers disrupted the movement of supplies, particularly of diesel. He said that BPCL began rushing supplies to Chennai from Kochi in response to the panic buying and long queues. ¶21. (U) The efforts to ensure that Chennai remained well-supplied with diesel, however, caused some shortages elsewhere in Tamil Nadu, an official from the Tamil Nadu Petroleum Dealers Association told the Consulate. He said that it would take a week to restore the usual distribution system. CATERPILLAR TO INVEST USD 200 MILLION IN TAMIL NADU -------------- -------------- ¶22. (U) Chairman and CEO of Caterpillar James Owen announced while visiting Chennai on June 25 his company's plans to invest an additional USD 200 million in India. A Caterpillar executive told Consulate Chennai that investments will focus on the company's Tamil Nadu facilities. This investment, he said, will allow Caterpillar's Chennai facility to expand its product range, efficiency, and research and design capabilities. The company hopes to make its Chennai factory a major production hub for the south and south-east Asian markets. ¶23. (U) Visit New Delhi's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov/p/sa/newdelhi MULFORD