CONGRESS SEEKS SP SUPPORT ON NUCLEAR DEAL TO BUCK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001798

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/30/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS SEEKS SP SUPPORT ON NUCLEAR DEAL TO BUCK
LEFT, PRESERVE GOVERNMENT, PROCEED TO IAEA IN JULY

Classified By: Charge John Davison for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)

Summary
- - -


1. (C) The Congress Party appears on the verge of securing
sufficient support from the Samajwadi Party (SP) to permit
the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government to
advance the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative
and to prove a parliamentary majority even if the Left
withdraws. The SP plans to announce its decision after a
meeting of like-minded partners on July 3. The Left's
de-facto veto in the government thus threatened, it announced
that it may withdraw support if Prime Minister Singh attends
the July 7-8 G8 summit in Japan rather than wait for
submission of the draft safeguards agreement to the IAEA
Board of Governors. A West Bengal senior Congress Party
source told us that Prime Minister Singh plans to share with
President Bush at the G8 Summit the government's intention to
move the deal forward. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP) remains focused on courting election support, attacking
the government over inflation and the economy, and
maintaining its insistence on renegotiating the nuclear deal
to explicitly authorize testing. The Congress-led UPA
government appears to gain little by waiting much past the
SP's anticipated declaration of support on July 3 to announce
publicly its decision to move forward with the nuclear deal.
Once the decision is made, the government hopes to pursue
simultaneously the IAEA safeguards agreement and the Nuclear
Suppliers Group (NSG) exception, with the ambitious aim of
seeking approval from the U.S. Congress in September. End
Summary.

Signs Point to Vienna: Congress Courts Samajwadi Party
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2. (C) The Prime Minister's media advisor Sanjaya Baru
confirmed for the Charge on June 30 media speculation that
the Congress Party has decided to take the next step in
advancing the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative
by submitting its draft safeguards agreement to the IAEA
Board of Governors, provided it receives the support of the
Samajwadi Party (SP) on July 3. The SP, together with the
other UPA partners, would provide Congress with sufficient
votes to constitue a parliamentary majority to fend off a
possible 'no confidence' vote that Communist Party (CPI-M)
chief Prakash Karat has threatened to trigger if the
government moves forward with the nuclear deal.


3. (SBU) SP leader Mulayam Singh Yadav has yet to pledge
publicly its support for the government, but his recent
statements suggest a decisive shift toward the government.
Yadav told media he would be briefed by aides on July 2 in
advance of a meeting the next day of the United National
Progressive Alliance (UNPA) -- including the SP and five
other small parties -- after which a decision is likely to be
announced. Yadav's public statements appear to be designed
to prepare for a rapprochement with the government, saying
"the chapter is closed" on his party's past ideological
rivalry with the Congress. Yadav also told media that the
five other members of the UNPA have no differences on the
nuclear deal.


4. (C) Congress Party public statements have likewise
evidenced a new resolve in recent days, bolstering claims
that the party has made the political decision to proceed
with the nuclear deal while preserving the government.
Embassy contacts confirmed media reports that Congress Party
leader Sonia Gandhi directed party general secretaries in a
meeting on June 28 to ready the party's election operations
by August 31. Following the meeting, the emboldened Congress
leadership called the Left's continued opposition to the
nuclear deal "irrational" and highlighted the need to end
India's "nuclear seclusion," especially in the face of rising
oil prices.


5. (C) After spending the morning with Foreign Minister
Pranab Mukherjee who was in Kolkata for a SAARC reporters
conference, West Bengal Congress General Secretary Dr. Manas
Bhunia reported to Consul General that Mukherjee confirmed
that the Congress definitely plans to advance the nuclear
deal and that Prime Minister Singh would tell President Bush
this at the G-8 Summit. Bhunia said the Congress was

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determined to go ahead with early elections if it failed to
gain SP support. Bhunia also reported that Mukherjee spoke
with Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee about the
Congress,s plans. According to Bhunia, West Bengal
Communist Party leaders generally do not oppose the nuclear
deal, but that Prakash Karat was intransigent. The West
Bengal CPM leaders were concerned about how they will fare in
parliamentary elections after losing about half of the gram
panchayat (village council) elections in May. Bhunia added
that in response to Congress,s efforts to reach out to the
SP, the Left is trying to garner support from Karunanidhi and
the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) party, which currently
supports the UPA and the nuclear deal.

Left Opposes Attendance at G8 Summit
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6. (SBU) Faced with the prospect of SP support for the UPA
government, senior officials of the Left announced on June 30
that they could withdraw from the government if Prime
Minister Singh attends the July 7-8 G8 summit in Japan rather
than wait for submission of the draft safeguards agreement to
the IAEA Board of Governors. This follows media speculation
that the UPA coalition government, after gaining SP support,
would prefer to wait until Prime Minister Singh's return from
the G8 Summit to announce publicly the submission of the IAEA
safeguards agreement in order to defer the Left's withdrawal
-- and the ensuing political turmoil. The Left would also
thereby prevent Prime Minister Singh from announcing the deal
in the presence of the G8 leaders. Karat also broadened the
Left's threat beyond the current government by suggesting
that Left parties would be reluctant to form a coalition with
the Congress Party following the next general election,
saying "The Congress should realize it cannot come to power
on its own."

BJP Supports Testing, No Confidence Vote; Seeks New Allies
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7. (SBU) In a July 27 speech in Uttar Pradesh that some media
outlets characterized as the formal launch of the opposition
Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP) election campaign, party
leader L.K. Advani reiterated his support for renegotiating
the nuclear deal to explicitly permit nuclear testing.
Advani also called for a 'no confidence' vote if the Left
withdraws support from the government over the nuclear deal,
a largely symbolic action if Congress shores up SP support.
In a signal that the BJP is reaching out to potential
coalition partners, Advani wished Uttar Pradesh Chief
Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) success in
governing the state. (A BJP-BSP alliance in Uttar Pradesh in
the 1990s resulted in the BSP usurping the BJP's traditional
upper caste constituency in the state.)

Comment: An Ambitious Indian Timeline
- - -


8. (C) If the Left's threat to pull out of the government in
the event that Prime Minister Singh attends the G8 Summit is
credible, the government appears to gain little by waiting
much past the SP's anticipated declaration of support on July
3 to announce publicly its decision to advance the nuclear
deal. In fact, should the SP join the coalition, threats by
the Left or the BJP to bring a 'no confidence' motion become
moot. As public statements on this deal are often
misconstrued by opponents in India even in the best of times,
Post strongly urges USG officials to refrain from commenting
on Indian developments during this crucial time when a
decision appears imminent.

DAVISON