RAJASTHAN RESOLVES STATE GUJJAR DILEMMA, PUNTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001765

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/INS, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2018
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL PINR KDEM IN
SUBJECT: RAJASTHAN RESOLVES STATE GUJJAR DILEMMA, PUNTING
IT TO THE FEDS

REF: A. NEW DELHI 02636


B. NEW DELHI 02564

C. NEW DELHI 01442

D. NEW DELHI 01136

Classified By: Acting PolCouns Joel Ehrendreich for reasons 1.4 (B,D)


1. (SBU) Summary: On June 17, with the announcement of a
new state reservation/quota policy, Rajasthan Chief Minister
Vasundhara Raje brought an end to the 27-day agitation
launched by the Gujjar community who were demanding
classification as a Scheduled Tribe (ST) in order to access
greater employment and education benefits. The Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP)-led Rajasthan government and the Gujjars
agreed to a five percent reservation for the Gujjar
community, and Raje agreed to write a letter recommending the
federal government adopt Gujjars into the ST category. To
not alienate and upset other caste groups, Raje announced a
14 percent quota for "economically backward upper caste
members," including Brahmins, Rajputs, Vaishyas and
Kshatriyas. Politically, the agreement seems to have settled
the interests of all caste groups in the state, putting Raje
and the BJP in a favorable position for the November 2008
state assembly elections. However, Rajasthan's affirmative
action regime and Gujjar request for ST status will likely
face further legislative and legal scrutiny on the
national-level, which may agitate the Gujjar community beyond
Rajasthan, prolonging their contentious fight for additional
social and economic benefits. End summary.

Ending the Stalemate
--------------


2. (U) On June 17, Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje and Gujjar
leader Colonel Kirori Bhaisala agreed to create a new five
percent quota for the Gujjar community and ended the
month-long Gujjar protest, which devastated the state tourism
industry and disrupted train travel/shipping throughout
northern India. Since May 23, thousands of Gujjars responded
to Bhaisala,s call for protests until the government gave
into the community's demands for inclusion in the Schedule
Tribe (ST) category. Gujjars came out in force, burning
buses, blocking roads, and dismantling railways. These
protmsts resulted in over 40 people killed in violent
confrontations with police. The Gujjar standoff resulted in
an estimated loss of over USD 700 to private and public
property and business. During a joint press conference on
June 18, Col. Bhaisala said the Gujjar community was
satisfied with the outcome and called off further protests
and apologized for inconvenience caused.

An Empty Promise
--------------


3. (SBU) Under this agreement, Raje assured Gujjar leaders
that she would also write a letter to the federal government
recommending the community be included in the ST category.
This would open up still more benefits for the Gujjar
community. In reality, Raje had agreed to send such a letter
based on an earlier 1999 letter, but that had not been enough
in itself to placate the Gujjars. In 1999, the Congress
government in Rajasthan sent a letter to the then BJP-led
National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government in Delhi,
recommending Gujjars inclusion in the ST category. The NDA
had at that time rejected the Rajasthan state recommendation,
explaining that they did not fit the constitutionally defined
ST category. Raje has successfully placed the Congress-led
UPA government in a difficult position by shifting
responsibility for the Gujjar problem, and putting UPA in the
position of ruling against a previous recommendation made by
its own party.

A Crafty Politician
--------------


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4. (C) India Today Principal Correspondent Rohit Parihar
underscored Raje's political aptitude in crafting this
solution to the Gujjar problem, when "all eyes are on her,"
and the Congress is hoping that she will stumble so they can
pick up Rajasthan in the upcoming state election in November.
In developing new reservation categories for the state, all
caste groups feel that she has effectively represented their
interests, despite the fact that there might be legal hurdles
ahead. Furthermore, Raje is putting the Congress-led UPA
government in a bind by pitching the decision to grant
Gujjars ST status to Delhi, Parihar explained. According to
Parihar, if the Congress-led UPA government denies Gujjars ST
status, the Congress will be "vilified and Raje looks good."
If the Congress-led UPA government upholds the inclusion of
Gujjars as STs, Raje looks good because she is the one who
crafted the solution and has "advocated" for the Gujjar
community. Unfortunately, Parihar cautioned, the Gujjar
scenario has created a nightmare for future governments
regardless of who is in power. He warned that other small
groups might see "wrecking havoc and disrupting civil life"
as a means to obtain benefits for their communities.

Gujjars: Taking Their Grievance National
--------------


5. (U) Gujjars have long expressed frustration with their
economic, social and political situation, which underlies
their demand for inclusion in the ST category. Converting to
ST status is a long and drawn-out process that requires an
amendment to the Indian Constitution. As a result, the
Gujjar fight for ST status has dragged on at the federal
level for more than 20 years (Ref B). The federal government
has continually denied Gujjar requests to be added to the ST
list. The federal government in 1981 and 1999 rejected
Gujjar demands, noting that the Gujjars did not fit the
constitutional ST definition (Ref A). In 2007, Raje created
a high-level state commission that also found Gujjars
ineligible for ST status, referencing the 1981 and 1999 cases
of ST determination. Gujjars, however, have threatened to
take their protests national, if their demands are not
granted by the federal government.

Further Legal Challenges: The 9th Schedule Loophole
-------------- --------------


6. (U) Rajasthan's new reservation regime will most likely
face court challenges. Since the 1970's the Supreme Court
capped state affirmative action reservations at 50 percent.
Prior to Raje's new policy, Rajasthan had 49 percent
reservations. The additional 19 percent per the June 17
agreement would increase the state's reserved category to 68
percent, well beyond Supreme Court reservation limits.


7. (U) The state and central government, up until 2007,
utilized a section of the constitution known as the 9th
Schedule to overcome legal challenges to reservation limits.
Once Parliament had determined a caste group should be
included in the 9th scheduled, it was beyond the purview of
the judiciary, since according to the Founders of the Indian
constitution, only amendments that change the fundamental
character of the Constitution are open to judicial review.
In 2007, when a private citizen from Tamil Nadu filed a case
against the Tamil Nadu state government, whose reservation
policy hit 69 percent, the Supreme Court ruled against the
state for violating the limit of 50 percent reservations per
state. The Supreme Court made a preliminary judgment that
Tamil Nadu quotas beyond the 50 percent threshold adversely
affected the "fundamental rights" of non-reservation
communities, thereby opening up 9th Schedule laws to judicial
review. The case is pending final judgment in the Supreme
Court, and observers expect a final Court decision after
summer recess.

Comment: BJP Finds a State Solution
--------------

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8. (C) The Gujjar agitation posed a serious political problem
for the Raje government, especially with state elections just
around the corner in November. Raje appeared to be losing
control of law and order in the state and any solution would
likely upset other caste group -- and potential vote banks --
who did not want to share their benefits with the Gujjars.
National Congress Party leaders and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)
Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati also criticized Raje
for her inability to resolve the crisis in the state. The
BJP, however, stuck to its pledge of not cutting any existing
quotas to bring the Gujjars into the quota regime. By
granting additional reservations to both Gujjars and upper
castes, Raje appeased Gujjar demands and side-stepped
potentially politically-charged protests from other social
groups, including the politically important Meena and Brahmin
communities. Raje's maneuver will help her in the coming
elections.

Comment Continued: Problem Punted to the Feds
--------------


9. (C) We have not seen the last of this problem, which Raje
has punted to the federal government. According to political
analysts, Raje has addressed the "reservations challenge" for
the short-term and has shifted the responsibility of
determining Gujjar ST status to the national parliament. She
is also dumping the issue to the federal court system to
determine whether they will enforce the cap on state
affirmative action programs. The courts will not decide any
time soon, which allows her to go into the November election
without the issue hanging around her neck. The federal
government is now stuck with trying to figure out how to
handle the situation, since the Gujjars have threatened to
take their protests national if their demands are not met.
Moreover, the Gujjar situation has potentially opened a
Pandora's Box. Based on the Gujjar,s model of violence and
intimidation, other caste groups may mount similar
demonstrations for additional benefits. End comment.

DAVISON