NUCLEAR DEAL END-GAME: CONGRESS PARTY TO DECIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001691 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018 TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN SUBJECT: NUCLEAR DEAL END-GAME: CONGRESS PARTY TO DECIDE WHETHER TO MOVE WITHOUT THE LEFT REF: NEW DELHI 1677 Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) Summary - - - ¶1. (C) The Congress Party, at the request of Prime Minister Singh, abruptly postponed the June 18 United Progressive Alliance-Left committee meeting to prepare to move forward with the next crucial step toward completion of the U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Cooperation Initiative without the support of its allied Left parties, which remain defiant. Commentators have treated the decision as a sign that the Congress Party is trying to muster the political will to go ahead without the Left. By all accounts, Congress Party chief Sonia Gandhi must now make the call, probably before the UPA-Left meeting now expected on June 25. More accurate media reporting has also restored a degree of realism to the timeline for completing the deal, providing an appropriate sense of urgency. End Summary. UPA-Left Committee Meeting Called Off to Preserve Deal - - - ¶2. (C) The latest postponement of the United Progressive Alliance-Left committee meeting scheduled for June 18 (reftel) sets the stage for a decision by the Congress Party on whether the government will take the next step toward completing the U.S.-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Initiative. Extensive media coverage has treated the abrupt postponement as a sign that the Congress Party is trying to muster the political will to go ahead with the deal regardless of opposition from the Left. The meeteng is now reportedly scheduled for June 25, the day after Minister of External Affairs and UPA-Left committee chair Pranab Mukherjee returns from a visit to Australia. (Note: The government itself has not confirmed this date.) Postponement or Cancellation? PM Wants to Move Without Left - - - ¶3. (C) Prime Minister media advisor Sanjay Baru confirmed to PAO on June 19 the accounts of a meeting between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress Party Chief Sonia Gandhi that led to calling off the meeting on the morning of June 18 as reported in Asian Age and The Times of India. These reports indicate that the UPA-Left committee meeting was not postponed, but rather canceled as the first step toward the Congress going ahead with the nuclear deal. According to these accounts, confirmed by another Embassy contact in the Prime Minister's Office, PM Singh told Sonia Gandhi that she should move the deal forward even in the face of Left opposition, and that holding the UPA-Left committee meeting would be useless unless the Congress was prepared to act. These same reports indicate PM Singh received Sonia Gandhi's backing. Left Remains Defiant, BJP Critical - - - ¶4. (SBU) Communist Party (CPI-M) General Secretary Prakash Karat went ahead with a meeting of Left party representatives on the evening of June 18 that had been planned prior to the canceled UPA-Left committee meeting. Following the meeting, CPI-M spokesmen reiterated the party's opposition to moving forward with an IAEA safeguards agreement as long as it leads to the operationalization of a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S., but reportedly stopped short of threatening to pull out of the government. ¶5. (SBU) The Left has also in recent days complained that the government has not shared the draft IAEA safeguards agreement, claiming that it cannot support moving forward with the IAEA without seeing the text. Union Science Minister Kapil Sibal told media on June 18 that the government ruled out giving the Left the draft IAEA safeguards agreement as it would have been a breach of trust with the IAEA, but said that the government had answered all their queries. ¶6. (SBU) The opposition Bharatia Janata Party (BJP) used the postponement as another opportunity to attack the UPA for not NEW DELHI 00001691 002 OF 002 moving forward with the nuclear deal. This approach, which the BJP has adopted recently, allows it to go on the offensive without having to discuss its own somewhat muddled and still evolving position on the deal. BJP vice president Venkaiah Naidu criticized the UPA government on June 18 for its inability to make a decision, saying because of it India is "becoming a laughing stock." ¶7. (C) Informal Embassy inquiries with junior UPA coalition parties indicate that they continue to support the Congress Party-led coalition on the nuclear deal. Sonia Gandhi Finally Ready to Decide? - - - ¶8. (C) Minister of Water Resources Saifuddin Soz -- one of the only GOI officials willing to offer his views to us on June 18 -- confirmed to Poloff that the UPA-Left committee meeting was called off because it became clear it would not have accomplished anything in the face of the recalcitrant Left. Soz, who sits on the UPA-Left committee, is close to the Sonia inner circle and was recently appointed by Sonia Gandhi to lead the Congress Party's election effort in the upcoming Jammu and Kashmir elections, said he felt that the deal is not dead, but it is "difficult," implying that the Left is unbending and it is now up to up to Sonia Gandhi to make the difficult decision on whether to move forward without their support. ¶9. (C) Embassy contacts confirm that Prime Minister Singh and Sonia Gandhi will likely meet again soon after her return from Maharashtra the evening of June 19. Embassy contacts confirmed that Congress members of the UPA-Left committee -- FM Mukherjee, Finance Minister Chidambaram, Science and Technology Minister Kapil Sibal, and Parliamentary Affairs Minister Chauhan, but not PM Singh -- met informally on June 18 to decide what to recommend to Sonia Gandhi upon her return. ¶10. (C) Well-connected media commentators have told the Embassy that they believe the Congress Party is ready to move the deal forward. Jyoti Malhotra, foreign correspondent for The Mint, said that Sonia Gandhi "finally believes the ball has to drop," and that the deal will move forward in the next ten days. Some of the more reputable newspapers have corrected the notion of a January 20 drop-dead deadline for completion the nuclear deal that some media outlets drew from Spokesman Casey's June 17 remarks (reftel). The Indian Express ran a front page "Deal timetable: Why Yes/No needs to be decided this month" beside a photo of Communist leader Karat looking at his watch. ¶11. (C) During the Ambassador's June 18-19 visit to Mumbai, business leaders expressed deep cynicism that Sonia Gandhi would follow through with the deal at the expense of remaining in power as long as possible. The Ambassador had been privately and confidentially advised by the government, following his meeting with Prime Minister Singh on June11, that the UPA leadership intends to move forward, although it remains subject to a final decision by Sonia Gandhi. MULFORD