CONGRESS SETBACK PROMPTS POSTPONEMENT OF INDIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 001429

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS SETBACK PROMPTS POSTPONEMENT OF INDIA'S
NEXT NUCLEAR MEETING


Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (SBU) Bruised by election losses in Karnataka (septel) and
blocked by the intransigent Left, the United Progressive
Alliance (UPA) government postponed the UPA-Left nuclear
committee meeting originally scheduled May 28. According to
May 27 press reports, External Affairs Minister Pranab
Mukherjee's office notified committee members May 26 to delay
the meeting date. While unnamed UPA officials explained that
"technical reasons" had prompted the rescheduling, the
Communists speculated that the Karnataka loss forced the
Congress Party's hand. "They may have realized that this is
not the right time to pursue the nuclear deal," surmised
Communist Party of India (CPI) national secretary D. Raja.
While some reports specified the next meeting would occur
June 11, most articles indicated that the date was not yet
determined.


2. (SBU) The Communists had increased the pressure even
before the May 25 announcement of the Karnataja results.
After a two-day central committee meeting, Communist Party of
India (Marxist) (CPM) general secretary Prakash Karat
reiterated May 24, "We are not for operationalization of the
deal." He dismissed recent Indian Express reports that
domestic uranium shortage should compel the government to
move ahead with the nuclear initiative. "A temporary
mismatch between the national uranium supply and demand
cannot be the basis to plunge the country into an India-U.S.
deal with far reaching adverse implications," he said.


3. (C) Comment: The sudden deferment of the UPA-Left
committee meeting exposes the Congress Party's feebleness as
it faces grim prospects in the coming state and national
elections. The snapshot prognosis on the nuclear initiative
is dire. Sonia Gandhi seems to have no intention of taking
the necessary, bold step that might save the deal but risk
the government's survival. Mukherjee's links with the Left
appear to have diluted his own enthusiasm for the initiative.
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister went under the knife May 25
for a cataract operation, sidelining the strongest supporter
for the deal in the UPA government.


4. (C) Comment (continued): While one might expect losing
political parties to change their ways, the opposite has
proven true. The Congress Party now seeks to stay in office
as long as possible, regardless of how non-action on the
nuclear deal might damage its global reputation. The Left,
faced with its own electoral shock in the recent West Bengal
panchayat (local) elections, has blamed its pseudo-capitalist
policy and hardened its anti-U.S. dogma. The BJP, despite
discomfort with its opposition against the initiative, has
found a winning formula, and will not budge an inch if it
means the Congress Party might emerge with a policy victory
before the upcoming general election.


5. (C) Comment (continued): However, the nuclear initiative
has seen a fair share of ups-and-downs over the past three
years, and this latest reversal comes after a string of
recent developments that had shifted the ground in the
nuclear initiative's favor. President Kalam's support, the
Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party's effort to get closer to
the Congress, and the renewal of support for the initiative
by the Bihar-based RJD Party had all generated positive
momentum over the past week by building consensus behind the
initiative. If strong and sustained, such political support
could withstand a Communist withdrawal from government. But
at the moment, the prospect for quick movement on the
initiative this summer looks bleak.
MULFORD