NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT PAKISTAN AND NUCLEAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001410

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: NARAYANAN WORRIED ABOUT PAKISTAN AND NUCLEAR
INITIATIVE

Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: National Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan told
the Ambassador May 23 that the May 13 Jaipur blasts had HUJI
"fingerprints," but he expressed greater concern about
increased infiltration from Pakistan, which he believed could
lead to greater tragedy. He related that Pakistan had not
fulfilled the terms of the anti-terrorist mechanism, and had
even refused to divulge details of suspicious phone numbers
intercepted by Indian intelligence. Regarding the civil
nuclear cooperation initiative, Narayanan hoped that the May
28 UPA-Left committee meeting would allow India to submit its
safeguards agreement to the IAEA Board of Governors.
Discussion on end-use monitoring and the VVIP aircraft
reported septel. End Summary.

HUJI Fingerprints on Jaipur Blasts
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2. (C) In a May 23 meeting with the Ambassador, National
Security Advisor M.K. Narayanan related that the May 13
blasts in Jaipur had the fingerprints of
Harkat-ul-Jihad-e-Islami (HUJI),especially because of the
similarities with the 2007 explosions in Lumbini Park in
Hyderabad, for which the Indian government has also held HUJI
responsible. Narayanan worried that the government had
focused on threats to Bombay and Gujarat, but did not have a
"fix" on Rajasthan or Maharashtra. Narayanan remarked that
the Indian government has "a lot of information about further
plans, but we don't know what to make of it."

Taliban Agreements Fuel More Instability
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3. (C) Narayanan turned to the agreements signed by the
Pakistani Army with the Taliban. "Deals are being made so
that they don't do anything (in Pakistan),but they can do
what they like in Afghanistan and on Pakistan's eastern
border," he complained. India has "vested interests" in
Afghanistan, he described, and pointed to the high number of
Indians working there, as well as the need to establish
stability in Afghanistan for the sake of South Asian
stability. As for India, Narayanan observed that
infiltration from Pakistan to India has increased as
Musharraf's power declined, which prompted him to convene a
"brainstorming session" just before the May 20-21 talks. "We
catch a fair number, but lots get through and the numbers are
rising," he reported.

Anti-Terrorism Mechanism Not Useful
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4. (C) The Ambassador asked whether the anti-terrorism
mechanism has helped or came up during the recent talks.
Narayanan revealed that the two foreign ministers discussed
it "in passing," but in reality, "it hasn't really got off
the starting blocks." He explained that counter-terrorism
cooperation depends on "a great deal of personal rapport,"
and he contrasted the "no holds barred" discussions between
the Indian and British intelligence with the dialogue between
India and Pakistan, which "has not reached a level of
comfort." As an example, he noted that India has asked
Pakistan to look into several of the "few thousand" phone
numbers intercepted from the Taliban, but the Pakistanis
continually respond that the number does not exist or no one
is on the other end.

Is Terrorism Local?
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5. (C) The Ambassador inquired whether Narayanan has seen a
rise in local Indians participating in terrorist acts.
Narayanan conceded that the Indian government could no longer
brag that there are no Indians in Al Qaeda. "We need to be
more cautious about that," he remarked, adding that of the
nine suspected bombers in Jaipur, four or five might be
local. He lamented that the Indian government faced a
"chicken-or-egg" dilemma, in which any arrests of Muslims
could provoke further radicalization. Despite this problem,
"we have managed to prevent a communal backlash and no
pogroms have taken place," he related.

Step-By-Step on the Nuclear Deal

NEW DELHI 00001410 002 OF 002


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6. (C) Regarding the May 28 UPA-Left committee meeting, the
Ambassador commented that while he "patiently watched" the
internal deliberations of the government, the initiative has
entered its final days. Narayanan quipped that he was also
"patiently watching." He explained that External Affairs
Minister Pranab Mukherjee hoped to convince the Left to
support the submission of the safeguards agreement to the
IAEA Board of Governors, then to the Nuclear Suppliers Group,
and then take a "breather." "But I'm not sure whether he
will be able to manage it," he confessed. The Ambassador
pressed that global developments -- such as growing nuclear
ties between CHINA and Pakistan, China's huge commitment to
nuclear energy, and India's own lack of uranium -- have made
the Indian case even stronger. Narayanan added that
135-dollar barrels of oil also help build the case to enact
the nuclear initiative.
MULFORD