TERROR TOP ON INDIAN MINDS AS THE FIFTH ROUND OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001364 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PBTS PK IN SUBJECT: TERROR TOP ON INDIAN MINDS AS THE FIFTH ROUND OF INDO-PAK COMPOSITE DIALOGUE BEGINS Classified By: PolCouns Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The fifth round of the Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue, scheduled to take place in Islamabad May 20-21, will cover the gamut of bilateral issues, according to the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA). Foreign Secretary Menon will meet his counterpart Salman Bashir May 20, while External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee will meet Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi May 21 in the first high-level contact between the two governments since Pakistan's newly elected government came to power in March. Siachen, Sir Creek, Jammu and Kashmir, terrorism, the cease fire, cross-border trade, visas and people-to-people contacts all promise to figure in the agenda. Following recent terrorist attacks in Jaipur, the Pakistanis expect the Government of India (GOI) to raise terrorism, according to Pakistani First Secretary Janbaz Khan. Indo-Pak watchers do not expect much to come out of this round of the Composite Dialogue. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) The fifth round of the Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue will "exclude nothing," covering the complete gamut of bilateral issues, according to the MEA Deputy Secretary for Pakistan, G. Balasubramaniam. Foreign Secretary Menon, scheduled to meet his counterpart Pakistani Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir May 20, will review progress since the March 2007 fourth round of the Composite Dialogue, including Siachen, Sir Creek, Jammu and Kashmir and terrorism, as well as follow up on issues related to the Commerce and Home Secretary level Composite Dialogue meetings held in July 2007, Balasubramanian told PolOff May 19. In the first high-level political contact since the Pakistan People's Party (PPP)-led coalition government came to power in March, External Affairs Minister (EAM) Pranab Mukherjee is slated to meet his counterpart Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi May 21. Embassy sources expect Mukherjee to raise ideas such as cross-border trade, more meeting points in Kashmir and confidence-building measures such as bus services between the two countries. (Note: Former Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran, who was recently appointed the Prime Minister's special envoy for border areas, was in Jammu and Kashmir last week to explore ideas for enhanced cross border trade. End note.) The cease fire, visas and people to people contacts would also figure highly on the agenda, according to our contacts. The movement of diplomats was highly restrictive in both countries, complained a diplomat at the Pakistani High Commission, observing that he himself needed permission from the Indian government to go to Gurgaon, a large shopping and industrial city just a few kilometers south of New Delhi. The Indians, he added, still had not signed some agreements made in previous sessions of the dialogue, surmising that "India is waiting for a bigger visit" to sign the agreements, joining the chorus of voices suggesting that Prime Minister Singh was planning to visit Pakistan in the near future. Comment: Interlocutors in Jammu and Kashmir told Poloffs last week that infiltration attempts were at "massive levels" this year. We expect Mukherjee and Menon to raise this with their Government of Pakistan counterparts. End comment. ¶3. (C) Pakistani First Secretary Janbaz Khan speculated that "the Indians will try to raise terrorism" in response to the recent bombings in the Indian city of Jaipur, noting that the press and the MEA had pointed the finger at Pakistan as the source of those attacks. Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence was not responsible for the attacks, Khan maintained, pointing out that Pakistani terrorists used suicide bombers, unlike the type of bombs used in Jaipur. The attacks were indigenous, he asserted, adding that he thought the terrorists had come from Bangladesh. "Even if Pakistan does not keep militants from crossing the border," he averred, "the problem lies with the human traffickers" rather than the government or ISI, Khan suggested. ¶4. (C) Former Ambassador Girish Dhume and journalist Ashok Malik told Political officers May 19 that they did not expect much to come out of this round of composite dialogue, noting that the talks were supposed to take place with a "democratic NEW DELHI 00001364 002 OF 002 and credible" Pakistani government, and that this had not turned out to be the case. Dhume and Malik separately stated that the current United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-led coalition could not do much more vis-a-vis Pakistan, opining that, as the GOI was entering its "deep domestic season," its ability to conduct foreign policy was very limited. The Joint Anti-terror Mechanism was not working, Malik indicated, noting that Pakistani elements in terrorist activities in India were "not as clear as they were 10-15 years ago." It was convenient to blame Pakistan for terrorist acts on Indian soil, he continued, but terrorism had become a homegrown problem that the GOI was ignoring, underlined Malik. ¶5. (C) Comment: While the GOI may well have been expecting to have its next round of Composite Dialogue with a more durable government than the one in place currently, it is a positive sign that the two sides are sticking to their schedule of talks. Pakistan's recent reported lobbying of bullets over the Line of Control did not have nearly the dramatic impact it would have had a few years ago, further signaling that the two sides are willing to stay the dialogue and diplomacy route. If PM Singh visits Pakistan in the near future, his visit may not be substantive, but the gesture would still be a significant indication that the two sides intend to continue the peace process, and would be a valuable place marker for India's next administration to pick up on. End Comment. MULFORD