SPIKE IN TERRORISM HAS INDIAN OFFICIALS WORRIED ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NEW DELHI 001336 SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA, SCT, CA, DS, P, S, D E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/12/2018 TAGS: PTER PREL PBTS MOPS KISL PGOV ASEC CASC IN SUBJECT: SPIKE IN TERRORISM HAS INDIAN OFFICIALS WORRIED ABOUT PAKISTAN REF: 2007 NEW DELHI 5158 Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford, Reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: A sharp and heavily publicized resurgence of infiltration and terrorism has Indian officials deeply worried about the situation in Pakistan and wondering whether domestic problems there could result in more violence, Foreign Secretary Menon told the Ambassador May 14. The Border Security Force accused Pakistani forces of violating the ceasefire May 8 in an area near Jammu to provide covering fire for infiltrators who subsequently engaged in a day-long firefight with security forces televised live on Indian news channels that resulted in five deaths, including that of a photojournalist. On May 13, eight simultaneous bomb blasts killed at least 60-70 and wounded 170-200 in the walled city of Jaipur, prompting the Minister of State for Home Affairs to accuse an unnamed neighboring state of involvement. On May 14, the Indian Army accused the Pakistani Army of violating the 2003 Line of Control ceasefire by providing covering fire to infiltrators in the Tangdhar area of Kashmir. A senior Kashmiri police officer told visiting Embassy officers that there has been a "massive surge" in infiltration since March, with as many as 130 new "sleeper agents" now inside India. As a result of this surge in terrorism, and the attendant saturation press coverage, the Indian Foreign Ministry announced that terrorism, ceasefire violations, and infiltrations would be atop the agenda for the Foreign Minister's trip planned for May 21 and for the Composite Dialogue session he will lead. Terrorism is a big domestic political issue here, and the BJP will assuredly use this spike in violence to accuse the UPA coalition and Congress yet again of being too weak on national security, although that strategy could backfire in Rajasthan, where the governing BJP may be viewed as having itself failed the people. End Summary. Terror in Jammu - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) On May 8 in the Samba region of Jammu, the Border Security Force accused the Pakistani Rangers of providing hours of covering fire so that terrorists could infiltrate into India. The BSF told the media that its units had received over 1000 rounds of small arms fire and 16 grenade attacks as Pakistani units covered the infiltration of 15 terrorists late in the night. The Indian press characterized the incident as the most serious breach yet of the five year old ceasefire along the Line of Control. Although the BSF initially claimed it had neutralized the infiltration attempt, the Intelligence Bureau publicly denied that was the case, and accused the BSF of having let down its guard. The IB's contention was proven on May 11, when two terrorists - presumably having evaded the BSF - attacked the border town of Samba, holed up in a house, and provoked a thirteen hour gun battle in which seven died, including a photojournalist for the Jammu Daily Excelsior. Pink City's Streets Run Red - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (C) During a twenty minute period on the evening of May 13, the walled old city in the Rajasthani capital of Jaipur was rocked by a series of seven or eight bomb blasts during the peak traffic hours. Embassy contacts reported around 60-70 dead and 170-200 wounded, with expectations that the death toll will rise since injuries of many appear critical. The old city is frequented by tourists and is the location of many Hindu temples that see large numbers of devotees on Tuesday evenings. Two of the bombs went off near crowded Hindu temples, although two Muslim businessmen from Jaipur told the Ambassador at a lunch on May 14 that more than twenty of the dead were Muslim. According to media reports, one bomb was found and defused. The bombs were medium to low intensity, placed in bags filled with ball bearings that were in turn placed in a car, a rickshaw, and on newly purchased bicycles around the old city. The ball bearings became flying shrapnel which increased the impact of the blast, causing maximum carnage. Police reported that the bombs were detonated with mobile phones, although there are other reports of the use of alarm clocks. The methods are similar to those used during the November 23 attacks in Varanasi, Lucknow, and Faizabad (reftel). Additional Chief Secretary (ACS) of Rajasthan Ashok Kumar Pande explained that an accurate account of the number of bombs, the number dead, and the number of people injured is difficult to assess. For this reason, a curfew has been imposed on the area affected by the bombs so that forensics teams can investigate and collect evidence and tamp down any possible religious violence that might NEW DELHI 00001336 002 OF 004 erupt. Embassy Reaction - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Shortly after the blasts, the Ambassador released a statement of condemnation and condolences to those impacted. The United States was the first foreign country reported on Indian airwaves to offer such a statement, which was very widely covered in the media. Foreign Secretary Menon expressed to the Ambassador his appreciation for the statement. All law enforcement agencies at post have reached out to their counterparts to offer assistance. ¶5. (SBU) There have been no reports of foreign tourists, including America citizens, injured or affected by the blasts. On May 14, Embassy New Delhi sent a CONS/RSO team to Jaipur to confirm these reports. Carefully Chosen Targets and Time -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The attack in Jaipur was carefully planned and likely relied upon local support. Police assume the blasts were designed to provoke communal tensions and destabilize the state, which goes to the polls in November. The timing of the bombing was optimized for killing the most people. Currently, Jaipur is hosting professional league cricket matches, which gives it high visibility and increases the number of tourist in town. Since Jaipur has never been the target of a terrorist attack, unlike the other cities hosting the matches (Bangalore, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Delhi),it was possibly seen as an easier target because security would be more relaxed. At the time of the blasts, the markets were packed with thousands of people walking around in narrow alleys and streets. Indian Government Response - - - - - - - - - - ¶7. (C) The central government responded immediately, sending in the National Security Guard, who are experts on counter-terrorism, and hundreds of officers from the Rapid Action Force, who were sent to stop any rioting. ACS Pande reported that while tension is high in Jaipur, calm is resuming and people are returning to their daily routines. He did, however, express concern that Hindu groups might "get adventurous" and lash out at Muslims, who represent thirty percent of the population of the walled city, but was confident that the heavy police presence around the city would quell any such situation. The Blame Game Starts -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled Rajasthan government immediately took the offensive, blaming the center government for not sharing intelligence with the state, leading to the loss of innocent lives. Senior party leader Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said the attacks reflected a "complete failure of the UPA government" resulting from "the weak policies" of a Government headed by a "weak Prime Minister" and "a coward Home Minister." Thus far, the senior leadership of the Congress Party has not yet hit back in public. Both Prime Minister Singh and Home Minister Shivraj Patil simply condemned the attack, urged calm, and said all assistance will be provided to that state. The Minister of State for Home Affairs, Prakash Jaiswal, however, accused the Rajasthan government of "not doing enough to ensure that such blasts are curbed. There were warnings of such possible blasts, but the state did not do much about it." Prime Suspect: HuJI and Co. -------------- ¶9. (C) Within hours, the media reported the prime suspects behind the attacks as the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) or the Bangladesh-based Harakat ul-Jihad-i-Islami(HuJI-B),a group with links to Pakistan-based lashkar-e-Tayyiba. According to Additional Chief Secretary Pande, however, it seems that the focus has begun to narrow on HuJI-B, which has become more active in India recently with similar attacks linked to it in Ajmer, Hyderabad, and other locations. HuJI was designated by the U.S. as a Foreign Terrorist Organization in March 2008. Editorialists, however, speculate that SIMI also had a strong reason to carry out the attacks, as it tries to prove it is still viable after much of its senior leadership was NEW DELHI 00001336 003 OF 004 arrested in March and April 2008. (COMMENT: The Jaipur bombings share some similarities with earlier terrorist attacks in India conducted by Lashkar-e Tayyiba (LT),a designated Foreign Terrorist Organization. LT often works in conjunction with HUJI-B and SIMI to conduct its operations inside India, suggesting that LT cannot be ruled out as a suspect at this earlier stage of the investigation.) Ambassador Discusses Blasts and Suspects with FS Menon -------------- ¶10. (C) The Ambassador expressed his condolences to Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, and offered to assist in any way possible. Menon noted that the government was still sifting through the evidence, and acknowledged that "our people are in touch with you." He related that SIMI and HUJI elements appeared to play a role, but the government had yet to determine the "actual chain." Indian Government Worried About Pakistan - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶11. (C) Menon said that he found the spate of infiltration attempts along the border in Kashmir more worrying. The "fairly large numbers" that entered India near the town of Samba during the May 11-12 attacks seemed to demonstrate that "someone has turned a blind eye" in Pakistan while the terrorists have received new provisions of weapons#and materiel, Menon outlined. He related that the Indians detected "continuous messages" from Pakistan directing the infiltrators after they crossed the border. He surmised that the political crisis in Pakistan has created "multiple centers of power," which in turn has given political space for the jihadis to operate. The Ambassador asked whether Musharraf's declining power played a role in the increased terrorist activity. Menon replied that Musharraf's "relative loss of power," combined with the rise of new decision-makers, has allowed the ISI to exert itself again. Terrorism at the top of the Agenda - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶12. (C) The Ambassador asked if the attacks would affect the Composite Dialogue meetings scheduled at the Foreign Secretary level on May 19 and the Minister level on May 20. Menon said that India would go through with the meetings, but he worried that the increased infiltrations could eventually impact the ongoing dialogue between the two countries. He noted that India would raise with Pakistan the "different pattern of behavior" of terrorist infiltration observed over the past two months. Yet Another LOC Infiltration Attempt and Ceasefire Breach - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶13. (C) Just as the Ambassador left his meeting with Menon and conveyed his condemnation and condolences for the Jaipur attacks to reporters gathered outside South Block, Indian TV news channels began reporting that the Army was accusing the Pakistani Army of a major breach of the LOC ceasefire - the second in a week - in the Tangdhar area of Kashmir. Poloffs who happened to be on the ground in Srinagar were able to confirm with the Director General of Jammu and Kashmir Police, who received a call on this matter from the Home Secretary while they were in his office, that night time firing by the Rangers across the LOC was part of yet another infiltration bid. The Director General of Police said there had been a "massive surge" in infiltration since March, and as many as 130 additional Pakistani "sleeper cell" terrorists were now embedded in Kashmir and other parts of India as a result. Other High Level GOI Officials Echo Pakistan Concerns -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Union Minister of State for Home Affairs Prakash Jaiswal told the media May 14 that "The groups behind the Jaipur blasts have definite links to our neighbor. The blast in Jaipur was well planned and whichever international group is responsible for this blast cannot tolerate the rapid growth and development of the country." Former Director General of the Border Security Force Prakash Singh told the media that "the Jaipur bomb blast seems externally inspired with local support and locally available explosives." Referencing the May 11 infiltration attempt, Singh added," Pakistan seems to be stepping up its subversive activities within India. You cannot overlook the [foiled infiltration attempt] at the border [where] six militants (sic) were killed...and now the Jaipur bomb blasts." A NEW DELHI 00001336 004 OF 004 former Director of the Intelligence Bureau echoed Singh's perspective of Pakistan's involvement in the blasts. ¶15. (C) Defense Minister A.K. Anthony added his concern about infiltration, noting that "serious attempts have started with the melting of the snow," which makes the terrain more traversable. Anthony added that he expects infiltration to increase, particularly with upcoming elections in Jammu and Kashmir and the desire of terrorists to disrupt those polls. Comment: Terrorism and Pakistan Back in Focus - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶16. (C) After months of relative calm, India's problem with terrorism has come sharply back into focus, and all eyes here are now looking with worry at the political developments in Pakistan. The Indian security bureaucracy worries that developments there mean a loosening of control on terrorists based in Pakistan, while the politicians now are faced with smearing each other to evade blame for security lapses that have resulted in a steady stream of terrorist attacks. With Rajasthan facing state elections in November, the BJP Chief Minister, Vasundhara Raje, faces not only the usual anti-incumbency trouble but also the possible blame for the Jaipur bombings. However on a national level, the BJP can use the attacks in Rajasthan as a platform to hammer even harder against what it calls the UPA's soft stance on terrorism and the threat emanating from Pakistan. MULFORD