EX-PRESIDENT OFFERS GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR INDIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001311 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018 TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN SUBJECT: EX-PRESIDENT OFFERS GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR INDIA'S NUCLEAR DEAL Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Former President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam's explicit endorsement of the civil nuclear initiative has added further pressure to the opposition BJP party to reverse its stance against the nuclear deal. However, BJP leader Jaswant Singh countered the building momentum by claiming that former Prime Minister Vajpayee expressed opposition to the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, in a move that could give the Congress Party political space, the Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party hinted that it might support the nuclear initiative if the government directly approached the party. But the Nationalist Congress Party, an ally in the government, reiterated that the nuclear initiative can only go forward once the Left gives its approval. Likewise, Congress Party MP Raashid Alvi had little hope that the initiative would go forward. Still, Kalam's announcement, coupled with continued articles about India's uranium shortage, has prompted commentators to restate their support for the initiative. End Summary. Kalam Emerges in Support of Nuclear Deal - - - ¶2. (SBU) Former President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam made public his support for the civil nuclear initiative during a string of public events to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the Pokhran-II nuclear blasts, in which he played a critical role as then-chief of the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO). In a May 9 interview, Kalam dismissed concerns that the initiative would compromise India's independence, but he made clear that if India feared a compromise on its sovereignty, it could withdraw "at any time." "We need uranium, and there is nothing wrong with the deal," he stated. Later, at a May 11 event in Mumbai with Department of Atomic Energy Secretary Anil Kakodkar, Kalam elaborated on his endorsement. "We need the uranium supply and the pact is important if we want to meet the target of nuclear energy's contribution in the total energy production," he explained. ¶3. (SBU) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seized on Kalam's words and urged the Left May 11 to "listen to voices of wisdom." The Left, however, remained unenamored of Kalam, whom the BJP appointed. "But just as he has words of wisdom, others in the country have given us words of wisdom too. Having weighed his words carefully, we came to the conclusion that there is no change in our stand," countered Communist Party of India (CPI) general secretary A.B. Bardhan May 11. Bardhan further confirmed that the Left remained against the deal. Kalam's Support Confounds BJP - - - ¶4. (SBU) While the combination of Kalam's endorsement and the support previously expressed by former National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra put pressure on the opposition BJP, former External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh dismissed any chance of revising its stance against the nuclear initiative. Singh told CNN-IBN that by supporting the nuclear initiative, Kalam had "abandoned strategic autonomy and walked out of the agreement." Moreover, Singh diminished Kalam's significance: "there is an assumption behind the articulation that their comments equal national interest." Singh also declared that "there is no word like honor in the United States of America." ¶5. (C) Regarding Mishra, who had strongly advocated for the initiative in an early May interview with Karan Thapar, Singh contended that Mishra's views did not represent the views of the BJP or even former Prime Minister Vajpayee, with whom Singh reportedly had met May 9. However, Embassy has received confirmation from several well-placed sources that a stroke has disabled Vajpayee to such an extent that he could not express his views on any issue to Singh. Rather, they surmised, Singh aimed to drive a wedge in the BJP for his own gain. Alvi Says Deal's Chances are Hopeless - - - ¶6. (C) Congress Party Member of Parliament (MP) Raashid Alvi NEW DELHI 00001311 002 OF 003 told poloff May 13 that he has "little hope" that the Left will allow the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government to move the initiative forward. He doubted that any change in the BJP stance would help the Congress Party, which, he explained, needed to count on Left support in a follow-on government. Alvi also warned that the UPA allies would lose many seats in the next general election, and would want to cling to power for as long as possible even if that as a result prevents the nuclear initiative from coming to fruition. Alvi related that he had taken seriously the message from visiting U.S. officials that India would lose credibility in the international arena, and alerted the Prime Minister, who subsequently told Alvi to relay the message to Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi. When Poloff asked about Gandhi's response, Alvi implied that she only cares about election results. Alvi divulged that he had lost confidence in the Congress Party, and might form his own party in Uttar Pradesh after the next general election. Regional Parties Continue To Confuse - - - ¶7. (SBU) The Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party (SP),which joined the anti-deal "Third Front" collective of out-of-power regional parties, distanced itself from the Communists' strong opposition to the deal. "We are not the "pichlaggu" (blind adherents) of the Left view on the nuclear issue and if the government is willing to place new facts before us, we are willing to talk," general secretary Amar Singh told reporters May 10. Former Foreign Secretary Maharajakrishna Rasgotra confirmed to DCM and PolCouns May 13 that Congress is maneuvering to secure SP's support for the initiative so that it can overcome the Left's opposition. While Singh's apparent flexibility may have given political space to the Congress Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP),a member of UPA, stressed the need to obtain Left support on the nuclear deal in a draft resolution May 11. "So far as the UPA cannot arrive at a consensus with the Left, it is obligatory on the part of the UPA not to sign the agreement," the statement read. However, NCP President Sharad Pawar assured a group of visiting Indian-American physicians May 12 that he stood strongly behind the deal, according to Hemant Patel, President of the American Association of Physicians of Indian Origin. India's Nuclear Program Suffers - - - ¶8. (SBU) While the politicians continue to dither over the deal, India's civil nuclear program has slowed because of a lack of uranium. Nuclear Power Corporation of India, Ltd (NPCIL) officials confided to the Indian Express that the fuel shortage compelled them to slow construction of Rajasthan Atomic Power Stations (RAPS) 5 and 6, which were originally scheduled to be commissioned in August 2007 and February 2008 respectively. Moreover, the officials confirmed that they have cut production levels in half over to 40-50 percent plant load factor at its nuclear power units. Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office Prithviraj Chavan explained the problems in Parliament as a "mismatch in demand and supply." Speaking at the same May 11 function as Kalam, Kakodkar acknowledged the fuel limitation, but related that DAE "is making a massive investment in uranium exploration and if we hit a huge find, then the problem is over." Comment: Kalam's Support Could Change the Calculation - - - ¶9. (C) No living figure is associated with India's nuclear weapons program more than President Kalam, who shot to fame with the Pokhran-II blasts in 1998. His endorsement puts the BJP in a bind, since his assurance that India will retain its sovereignty contrasts sharply with the BJP's whining about loss of independence. Moreover, as the president under the Vajpayee government, Kalam's association with the BJP adds to the pressure. Although Jaswant Singh repudiated the remarks, Kalam has effectively stirred the BJP pot, which could agitate those party members who have told us privately of their support. The poor state of India's nuclear program also adds to the pressure on the BJP, which, as eminent strategist K. Subramaniam has pointed out, has effectively debilitated the indigenous program by preventing India from NEW DELHI 00001311 003 OF 003 accessing the global uranium market through its opposition, along with the Left, to the nuclear initiative. MULFORD