EX-PRESIDENT OFFERS GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR INDIA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 001311

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2018
TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN
SUBJECT: EX-PRESIDENT OFFERS GLIMMER OF HOPE FOR INDIA'S
NUCLEAR DEAL

Classified By: Political Counselor Ted Osius for Reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: Former President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam's
explicit endorsement of the civil nuclear initiative has
added further pressure to the opposition BJP party to reverse
its stance against the nuclear deal. However, BJP leader
Jaswant Singh countered the building momentum by claiming
that former Prime Minister Vajpayee expressed opposition to
the nuclear deal. Meanwhile, in a move that could give the
Congress Party political space, the Uttar Pradesh-based
Samajwadi Party hinted that it might support the nuclear
initiative if the government directly approached the party.
But the Nationalist Congress Party, an ally in the
government, reiterated that the nuclear initiative can only
go forward once the Left gives its approval. Likewise,
Congress Party MP Raashid Alvi had little hope that the
initiative would go forward. Still, Kalam's announcement,
coupled with continued articles about India's uranium
shortage, has prompted commentators to restate their support
for the initiative. End Summary.

Kalam Emerges in Support of Nuclear Deal
- - -


2. (SBU) Former President A.P.J. Abdul Kalam made public his
support for the civil nuclear initiative during a string of
public events to commemorate the tenth anniversary of the
Pokhran-II nuclear blasts, in which he played a critical role
as then-chief of the Defense Research and Development
Organization (DRDO). In a May 9 interview, Kalam dismissed
concerns that the initiative would compromise India's
independence, but he made clear that if India feared a
compromise on its sovereignty, it could withdraw "at any
time." "We need uranium, and there is nothing wrong with the
deal," he stated. Later, at a May 11 event in Mumbai with
Department of Atomic Energy Secretary Anil Kakodkar, Kalam
elaborated on his endorsement. "We need the uranium supply
and the pact is important if we want to meet the target of
nuclear energy's contribution in the total energy
production," he explained.


3. (SBU) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seized on Kalam's
words and urged the Left May 11 to "listen to voices of
wisdom." The Left, however, remained unenamored of Kalam,
whom the BJP appointed. "But just as he has words of wisdom,
others in the country have given us words of wisdom too.
Having weighed his words carefully, we came to the conclusion
that there is no change in our stand," countered Communist
Party of India (CPI) general secretary A.B. Bardhan May 11.
Bardhan further confirmed that the Left remained against the
deal.

Kalam's Support Confounds BJP
- - -


4. (SBU) While the combination of Kalam's endorsement and the
support previously expressed by former National Security
Advisor Brajesh Mishra put pressure on the opposition BJP,
former External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh dismissed any
chance of revising its stance against the nuclear initiative.
Singh told CNN-IBN that by supporting the nuclear
initiative, Kalam had "abandoned strategic autonomy and
walked out of the agreement." Moreover, Singh diminished
Kalam's significance: "there is an assumption behind the
articulation that their comments equal national interest."
Singh also declared that "there is no word like honor in the
United States of America."


5. (C) Regarding Mishra, who had strongly advocated for the
initiative in an early May interview with Karan Thapar, Singh
contended that Mishra's views did not represent the views of
the BJP or even former Prime Minister Vajpayee, with whom
Singh reportedly had met May 9. However, Embassy has
received confirmation from several well-placed sources that a
stroke has disabled Vajpayee to such an extent that he could
not express his views on any issue to Singh. Rather, they
surmised, Singh aimed to drive a wedge in the BJP for his own
gain.

Alvi Says Deal's Chances are Hopeless
- - -


6. (C) Congress Party Member of Parliament (MP) Raashid Alvi

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told poloff May 13 that he has "little hope" that the Left
will allow the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government
to move the initiative forward. He doubted that any change
in the BJP stance would help the Congress Party, which, he
explained, needed to count on Left support in a follow-on
government. Alvi also warned that the UPA allies would lose
many seats in the next general election, and would want to
cling to power for as long as possible even if that as a
result prevents the nuclear initiative from coming to
fruition. Alvi related that he had taken seriously the
message from visiting U.S. officials that India would lose
credibility in the international arena, and alerted the Prime
Minister, who subsequently told Alvi to relay the message to
Congress Party President Sonia Gandhi. When Poloff asked
about Gandhi's response, Alvi implied that she only cares
about election results. Alvi divulged that he had lost
confidence in the Congress Party, and might form his own
party in Uttar Pradesh after the next general election.

Regional Parties Continue To Confuse
- - -


7. (SBU) The Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party (SP),which
joined the anti-deal "Third Front" collective of out-of-power
regional parties, distanced itself from the Communists'
strong opposition to the deal. "We are not the "pichlaggu"
(blind adherents) of the Left view on the nuclear issue and
if the government is willing to place new facts before us, we
are willing to talk," general secretary Amar Singh told
reporters May 10. Former Foreign Secretary Maharajakrishna
Rasgotra confirmed to DCM and PolCouns May 13 that Congress
is maneuvering to secure SP's support for the initiative so
that it can overcome the Left's opposition. While Singh's
apparent flexibility may have given political space to the
Congress Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP),a
member of UPA, stressed the need to obtain Left support on
the nuclear deal in a draft resolution May 11. "So far as
the UPA cannot arrive at a consensus with the Left, it is
obligatory on the part of the UPA not to sign the agreement,"
the statement read. However, NCP President Sharad Pawar
assured a group of visiting Indian-American physicians May 12
that he stood strongly behind the deal, according to Hemant
Patel, President of the American Association of Physicians of
Indian Origin.

India's Nuclear Program Suffers
- - -


8. (SBU) While the politicians continue to dither over the
deal, India's civil nuclear program has slowed because of a
lack of uranium. Nuclear Power Corporation of India, Ltd
(NPCIL) officials confided to the Indian Express that the
fuel shortage compelled them to slow construction of
Rajasthan Atomic Power Stations (RAPS) 5 and 6, which were
originally scheduled to be commissioned in August 2007 and
February 2008 respectively. Moreover, the officials
confirmed that they have cut production levels in half over
to 40-50 percent plant load factor at its nuclear power
units. Minister of State in the Prime Minister's Office
Prithviraj Chavan explained the problems in Parliament as a
"mismatch in demand and supply." Speaking at the same May 11
function as Kalam, Kakodkar acknowledged the fuel limitation,
but related that DAE "is making a massive investment in
uranium exploration and if we hit a huge find, then the
problem is over."

Comment: Kalam's Support Could Change the Calculation
- - -


9. (C) No living figure is associated with India's nuclear
weapons program more than President Kalam, who shot to fame
with the Pokhran-II blasts in 1998. His endorsement puts the
BJP in a bind, since his assurance that India will retain its
sovereignty contrasts sharply with the BJP's whining about
loss of independence. Moreover, as the president under the
Vajpayee government, Kalam's association with the BJP adds to
the pressure. Although Jaswant Singh repudiated the remarks,
Kalam has effectively stirred the BJP pot, which could
agitate those party members who have told us privately of
their support. The poor state of India's nuclear program
also adds to the pressure on the BJP, which, as eminent
strategist K. Subramaniam has pointed out, has effectively
debilitated the indigenous program by preventing India from

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accessing the global uranium market through its opposition,
along with the Left, to the nuclear initiative.
MULFORD