MAYAWATI THREATENS TO WITHDRAW FROM UPA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 000130 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI IN SUBJECT: MAYAWATI THREATENS TO WITHDRAW FROM UPA REF: A. 07 NEW DELHI 4537 ¶B. 07 NEW DELHI 4396 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: At a January 7 press conference, notoriously mercurial Uttar Pradesh (UP) Chief Minister (CM) Mayawati threatened to withdraw support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and claimed that certain Congress members were trying to kill her. Congress waved off the claims and summarily downplayed Mayawati's support for the UPA. While the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) does not have enough Lok Sabha seats to put the UPA in jeopardy, the statements portend an increasingly hostile relationship between the BSP and Congress ahead of 2009 elections, in part because they compete for the same vote banks. This emerging split also gives the Left, BJP and UPA a chance to make coalition mischief. End Summary. Withdrawal Threat and Assassination Claim -------------- ¶2. (U) At a January 7 press conference, BSP chief Mayawati, who rode a Dalit-backed wave to the UP CM position in May of 2007, threatened to withdraw BSP support from the UPA and alleged that certain members of the Congress party were trying to kill her. The press conference came after the central government denied Mayawati's request for Special Protection Group (SPG) cover. (Currently, only the Prime Minister and former PM's receive SPG cover. Granting her SPG cover would require an act of parliament and would no doubt be met with requests for SPG cover from India's thirty other CMs.) She refused to name specific Congress party leaders but added, "Details will be divulged at an appropriate time." Mayawati stated that the UPA withdrawal decision will be made sometime after a January 15 BSP party meeting, but declined to give a deadline. January 15 is Mayawati's birthday, and observers have speculated that she may declare her independence from Congress at a birthday celebration. BSP Cannot Bring Down the UPA -------------- ¶3. (U) In the short term, a BSP withdrawal of support from the UPA would not have debilitating consequences. The BSP occupies 19 seats in the Lok Sabha and even without these, the UPA would remain in power. Additionally, the BSP, like the Left parties, supports the UPA from the outside and holds no ministerial positions within the government. Congress party leader Digvijay Singh quickly downplayed Mayawati's threat, telling the media, "The Congress is least bothered about BSP's support." BSP and Congress: Increasing Confrontation -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Mayawati's threat comes amid increasingly heated rhetoric between the BSP and Congress. After the terrorist attack on a CRPF base in Rampur, both Mayawati and Congress pointed fingers at each other for lax security. Additionally, the UPA has delayed submission of a financial corruption report against the UP CM, allowing the case to remain open. And finally, the UPA has failed to fast track Mayawati's demand for a $20 billion development package for UP. From "sources" and "insiders" the Times of India reports that Mayawati has decided on an "anti-Congress" platform and that the BSP will not be "soft" on Congress. The story further claims that the SPG cover and enormous aid package demand were engineered to create separation with Congress. The 2009 Campaign Has Begun -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Thus far Mayawati has not committed to withdrawal, but rhetorically put Congress on notice. The threat appears to be more symbolic, an opening move in what will be a long campaign for the 2009 Parliamentary elections. NEW DELHI 00000130 002 OF 002 The BSP's Dalit-based appeal comes mainly at the expense of Congress, and Mayawati's recent actions suggest a year of aggressive confrontation. ¶6. (SBU) Mayawati wants nothing more than to become Prime Minister. To do this she must expand her base beyond UP. But recent forays in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have not proved successful. The BSP did play something of a spoiler against Congress, but did not generate that much support at the polls. Several states head to the polls in 2008, but Mayawati's "social engineering" strategy hasn't thus far traveled well outside UP. ¶7. (SBU) Even with just its UP base, the BSP will clearly be a player after the next parliamentary election with as many as of 50 seats. Just as her mentor, BSP founder Kanshi Ram, charted out, Mayawati would like to play kingmaker in 2009 as opposed to just spoiler. For now, arithmetically, her withdrawal of support will not affect the UPA. However, it does afford new opportunities for the Left, BJP and UPA to seek to engage in further coalition mischief. Even they know, however, just how unpredictable Mayawati is. End Comment. MULFORD