MAYAWATI'S BSP SWEEPS FIVE U.P. BY-ELECTIONS

UNCLAS NEW DELHI 001109 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR SCA/INS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IN SUBJECT: MAYAWATI'S BSP SWEEPS FIVE U.P. BY-ELECTIONS REF: NEW DELHI 1018 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: In Uttar Pradesh (UP) last week, Chief Minister Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) swept five by-elections: two Lok Sabha races and three State Assembly races. Except for one Lok Sabha contest, the elections primarily pitted the BSP against Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP). In fact, the Congress Party and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidates fared so poorly that they did not receive back their registration deposits (designed to keep marginal players out of politics) in four of the five races apiece. The meager showing registered by the two national parties in the state that sends the most MPs to parliament reaffirms a growing thesis: in all likelihood both the Congress Party and the BJP will have to seek a UP partner in the coming national elections, which will drive up bidding for BSP and SP support. Thus far the political signals indicate a Congress-SP tie-up, but plenty of water has yet to pass under the bridge. Mayawati's inexorable rise continues, causing jitters in the Congress Party and BJP ahead of national elections sometime in the next 12 months. End Summary. BSP Wins, SP Loses, Congress and BJP Bomb -------------- ¶2. (U) On April 12, UP voters cast by-election ballots in two Lok Sabha districts and three State Assembly districts. The BSP of UP Chief Minister Mayawati took all five seats. Though anti-incumbency remains a force in Indian politics, the BSP retained its three seats while nabbing one from the Congress and the other from an independent. Both the Congress Party and the BJP contested all five seats, but they did so without passion. Mulayam Singh Yadav's SP fought the hardest against the BSP, but only managed second place in three of the elections. ¶3. (U) When a candidate fails to garner one sixth of the votes cast in an election, the candidate forfeits his registration deposit. "Losing your deposit" is the ultimate sign of electoral failure. In four out of the five races, the Congress Party and BJP candidates lost their deposits. This result was not lost on Mayawati, who proclaimed, "TUQ9QQiah*=oQY ¶4. (SBU) Comment: After a separate UP by-election win in January, the SP appeared to be gaining momentum, and Mulayam campaigned in all five of the recent electoral districts. However, one year into her term in office, Mayawati's caste-based approach proved durable. The question remains open as to whether she can sustain this coalition for a full term without delivering on development and good governance. The dismal result for the Congress Party represents the latest in a series of setbacks (reftel). Though it would be unwise to draw definitive political conclusions from a few by-elections, the weakened Congress Party will most likely have to align with the SP or the BSP if the United Progressive Alliance is to remain competitive in the national elections. The continuing heated rhetoric between Mayawati and Rahul Gandhi points to a Congress-SP tie-up. But with a risk-averse Congress Party, we're not likely to see any new alliances until the national polls are announced. The UP results also demonstrate the BJP's weakness in the state. It too needs a UP ally to remain competitive. However, the BSP may ask too high a price for collaboration while the SP will remain wary of any pre-election tie-up with the BJP for fear of losing some of its Muslim support. End Comment. WHITE