INDIA SKEPTICAL NEPALESE ELECTIONS WILL BRING

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 001051 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM NP IN SUBJECT: INDIA SKEPTICAL NEPALESE ELECTIONS WILL BRING STABILITY SUMMMARY: -------------- ¶1. (U) GOI officials are publicly upbeat on the significance of Nepal's first democratic election in 15 years, with the MEA officially saluting the Nepalese people for taking a positive and important step. However, Indian observers are privately dubious about the outcome of Nepal's voting, and point to the immense challenges and complications that will face the eventual winning party. The multiple acts of violence and terror against candidates in the week leading up to the election, as well as reports of polling station violence and voter interference fuel Indian anxiety that the election's results will be tainted and subject to challenge. The Indian security community is reportedly taking no chances on the possibility that election turmoil could flare across into India, and has tightened border security to preclude this. END SUMMARY. -- INDIANS OFFICIALLY HAIL ELECTION, PRIVATELY FEAR FIASCO -- ¶2. (U) In the week leading up to Nepal's election day, Indian pundits and observers have written extensively on the importance of Nepal's election, describing it alternately as "historic," a "date with democracy," and even cribbing from Nehru's legendary speech, a "tryst with polls." Indian observers have noted the excitement with which millions of Nepalis have lined up to vote, undeterred by election-day violence at some polling stations, underlining this will be Nepal's first democratic election in 15 years. On polling day, April 10, India became the first foreign government to publicly hail the Nepalese election, in an official statement issued by the MEA, hailing it as "successful" and "a welcome and historic step" and "happy outcome." The MEA further pledged India's intention to stand by the people of Nepal in the major tasks of democratization and development that lie ahead while building a stable, prosperous and peaceful Nepal. Yet as the Hindustan Times points out, the challenges ahead for Nepal are immense, for "impoverished, ill-governed" Nepal to cement peace after a decade-long civil war. India's Ambassador to Nepal Mukherjee reportedly told New Delhi media April 10 that the GOI has tightened security along the Indo-Nepalese border and will remain on alert for at least another week. -- TOO MUCH DISAGREEMENT MAY PREVENT A PEACEFUL OUTCOME, SAY PUNDITS -- 
 ¶3. (U) Indian Nepal-watchers have assessed that Maoist leader Puspha Dahal (aka Prachanda),representing the CPN-M (Communist Party of Nepal/Maoist) is angling to assume the Presidency with the aim of making it the strongest arm of the government-to-be, while his supporters shout "Prachanda for President" slogans in Nepal's streets. In contrast, Indian media notes, his two main competitors, the NC (Nepali Congress) party and the UML (Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist/Leninist) party, intend to implement a more parliamentary form of government with a weak, ceremonial President and a strong Prime Minister, much like India's system. Other Indian observers grimly speculated that the election results may be contested by a losing faction as not being free and fair. The Hindustan Times wrote in an April 8 article that one of the biggest questions facing Nepal is just how well the Maoists will fare at the polls, and if they will accept defeat peacefully, as they promise. Disgruntled losers in the election could dispute the outcome by pointing to violent interference on election day at polling stations. Indian media widely reported that voting was suspended at three polling stations in Chitwan district, following an incident where ballot boxes were kicked over, resulting in a scuffle with officials; a separate incident in Galkot where a polling station was burnt down, and in the bloodiest incident yet, voting at a polling station in the mountainous Surkhet region was suspended for a week due to bloody clashes between police and Maoist cadres, which left seven dead. The Indian Express noted that the UML has lodged 98 complaints with Nepal's Election Commission in the run-up to the balloting, all but two against the Maoists for intimidating political rivals and violating the code of conduct. The Hindustan Times predicts "no-one NEW DELHI 00001051 002 OF 002 expects the Maoists to win a majority" - that the country's long established political heavyweights, the NC and the UML are clear favorites, and "equally, few expect the Maoists to return to the jungles." -- SOME INDIANS BELIEVE SOCIAL DIVISIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DOG NEPAL DESPITE ELECTIONS -- ¶4. (U) The Calcutta Telegraph underlined that the stark social division and mistrust between in Nepal between the haves and have-nots will remain regardless of the outcome of the elections. The reporter describes an April 9 scene in a bar in Pokhara, Nepal, where affluent Nepalis and tourists are drinking and relaxing on the night before polls, oblivious to the significance of the voting, with one "prosperous native" quoted as saying "Desperately waiting for tomorrow to be over - then the real party can resume again. Such a nuisance, this election." The reporter observes that Nepal is a besieged schizophrenia of excess and deprivation, and describes its elite as insular and unseeing, with a roiling underclass living in desperate poverty. -- COMMENT: INDIA BREATHES A SIGH OF RELIEF AS ELECTIONS PASS SURPRISINGLY QUIETLY -- ¶5. (U) Comment. Indian media has been unexpectedly quiet in the first day following what, in the days leading up to April 10, was widely considered to be an election that will significantly affect India's domestic and cross-border interests. Post suspects that less-than-expected violence on Nepal's election day and relatively minimal accusations of vote-rigging led to a realization that election day in Nepal wasn't the disaster many had been expecting. However, Post's contacts have noted from early on that judgment of Nepal's democratization process can't be made until results have been tabulated, a new government has been formed, and the reaction to the political wins and losses tests a new, fragile system. From Delhi's perspective, round one was surprisingly uneventful, but the fear remains that the real punches are yet to be thrown. END COMMENT. DEIKUN