MENON CLAIMS IAEA NEGOTIATORS NOT GOING BEYOND 123

C O N F I D E N T I A L NEW DELHI 000102 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2018 TAGS: PREL PARM TSPL KNNP ETTC ENRG TRGY IN IR AF SUBJECT: MENON CLAIMS IAEA NEGOTIATORS NOT GOING BEYOND 123 REF: UNVIE 00014 Classified By: Ambassador David Mulford for Reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Ambassador told Foreign Secretary Menon January 11 that the demands made by the Indian negotiators during the January 2-4 safeguards talks with the IAEA appeared to go over beyond the principle of safeguards in perpetuity established in the 123 agreement. Menon countered that the team has stayed within the boundaries set by the 123 Agreement and separation plan, and speculated that IAEA personnel without knowledge of those two documents have distorted India's views. The Ambassador warned that the perception of conditioning safeguards on fuel supply created among member countries of the IAEA will harm India's chances later in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Menon relayed that the government has not yet made the political decision about sequencing the Board of Governors submission and the NSG exception. He expected, however, that the UPA-Left committee will likely deliberate over the safeguards agreement after the IAEA talks conclude. The discussion on Pakistan, China and the bilateral relationship are reported in septels. End Summary. Menon Says Nothing in Safeguards Text Goes Beyond 123 - - - ¶2. (C) In a January 11 conversation with Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon, the Ambassador expressed concern that the Indian team has sought to condition safeguards on fuel supply assurances, going well beyond the understanding in the 123 Agreement and separation plan that India would implement safeguards in perpetuity. Menon countered that India's position falls within the terms previously discussed, and that others "might not be aware of the balance." He asked where in the text India has gone too far. The Ambassador warned him that "it was unacceptable" to go beyond the 123 Agreement, which most observers feel was very favorable to India. Menon again denied that India has tried to exceed the language in the 123 Agreement, but noted that there are "deliberate ambiguities." The Ambassador underlined that even the perception that India wants to end safeguards if a disruption in fuel supply occurs will further alienate already skeptical Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) countries. Menon requested to see the specific language that appeared in the newly unified draft safeguards agreement. Political Decision on Sequencing Still Pending - - - ¶3. (C) The Ambassador asked if the political atmosphere will allow India to move the safeguards agreement to the IAEA Board of Governors (BOG). Menon replied that he had told Under Secretary Nicholas Burns that the political level must still meet to determine the next step. Regarding the UPA-Left committee chaired by External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Menon acknowledged that, though still unscheduled, the next committee meeting will likely consider the safeguards agreement because "politically they need to go through some process." Although he hoped that the January 16-18 talks will conclude the negotiations, Menon said that he would not bet on it. The Ambassador reiterated that further delays could hamper efforts in the IAEA and NSG. Comment: Keep India Honest - - - ¶4. (C) While we realize that the India-IAEA negotiations do not involve the U.S., we must continue stressing that other countries, as well as the U.S. Congress, will closely examine India's commitment to safeguards in perpetuity. Any hint that India can remove facilities and fuel from safeguards in the event of a stoppage in fuel supply will set off alarms. Even the appearance that India has reserved such a right has the potential to set India and the IAEA up for a conflict in the future and set a precedent that weakens the safeguards system worldwide, no matter what the operative text might dictate. We will continue persuading the Indians to stick to safeguards in perpetuity, as previously agreed with the U.S. MULFORD