JEM "FOREIGN SECRETARY" COMMENTS ON ACTIVITIES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NDJAMENA 000582

SENSITIVE
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2018
TAGS: PREL PREF PHUM MARR KPKO PINR PGOV AU UN SU
LY, FR, CD
SUBJECT: JEM "FOREIGN SECRETARY" COMMENTS ON ACTIVITIES IN
DARFUR, DEFECTIONS TO JEM, AND RELATIONSHIP WITH CHAD

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Classified By: ACTING POL/ECONOFF KAREN T. LEVINE FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AN
D (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On December 14, the Justice and Equality
Movement's "Foreign Secretary" Bushara Suliman Nour, based in
Ndjamena, labeled recent JEM military movements in Darfur as
"routine" and "strictly within our areas," but later asserted
that JEM could easily attack and control all three state
capitals in Darfur. JEM has grown stronger in the last week,
claimed Nour, as rebel commanders from rival movements
defected to JEM the week of December 7. Nour also asserted
that JEM's relationship with the Government of Chad (GoC)
remains stable, as JEM has a direct relationship with
President Deby and balances rival security forces within the
GOC. Much of what Nour said repeats other recent comments by
JEM representatives, demonstrating the close coordination of
JEM's public message. Nour's unabashed reference to
continued support from the GoC and potential JEM attacks on
the three state capitals are both troubling, but could be
grossly over exaggerated and part of JEM's larger propaganda
campaign.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Khartoum TDY PolOff Eric Barbee met Justice and
Equality Movement (JEM) "Foreign Secretary," Bushara Suliman
Nour,in Ndjamena on December 14th.


JEM'S MOVEMENTS ARE ROUTINE, BUT READY FOR WAR
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3. (C) Nour opened the meeting stating that the Government
of Sudan (GoS) started rumors about JEM's military movements
in order for the Sudanese Government to justify its own
operations in Darfur. (Note: These comments mirror
statements made by JEM spokesman Ahmed Hussein to the
international press on December 16. End Note.) Poloff
responded that UNAMID has also independently reported JEM
movements in both North and South Darfur, to which Nour
quickly responded, "The GoS has bought off UNAMID and
especially its leaders like (UNAMID Joint Special
Representative) Adada." (Nour specifically mentioned that
Salah Ahmed, a deputy to National Intelligence and Security
Services (NISS) Chief Salah Gosh, was charged with co-opting
senior UNAMID officials.) Although admitting that JEM's
military leadership does not inform him about all JEM's
operational plans, Nour said that the JEM movements he was
aware of "were routine and within our areas of control in
North Darfur." At the close of the meeting (and notably
after poloff had put away his pen),Nour returned to the
discussion of JEM's military operations and rhetorically
asked, "Do you realize that JEM could easily attack and
control all three state capitals in Darfur?" He then stated
that JEM could immediately stage such a attack if it were not
concerned about the "humanitarian impact of such a war." He
added that while JEM is not worried about the Sudanese Armed
Force, it is concerned about indiscriminate attacks from the
janjaweed and Arab militias following JEM's initial military
victory throughout Darfur.

NCP PUSHING BASHIR OUT
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4. (C) According to Nour, JEM believes that there is a
major power struggle within the National Congress Party
(NCP),and that senior party leaders are currently searching
for an alternative to President Omar Al-Bashir. Nour said
that many NCP leaders feel that Bashir must be replaced by
another military leader in order to maintain the loyalty of
the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). According to Nour, the NCP
is actively pursuing an unnamed retired military general.
(Note: Nour said he had not yet been informed of the
specific name of this individual.) Nour said that Vice
President Ali Osman Taha and Intelligence Chief Salah Gosh
also have their own presidential aspirations and that "JEM
knows that either Taha or Gosh would be acceptable to the
U.S. and the rest of the West."

DEFECTIONS TO JEM AND COORDINATION WITH OTHER MOVEMENTS
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5. (C) Nour claimed that within the last week several
significant commanders had defected from rival movements to

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JEM. Most significantly, former senior military commander
for SLM/Minnawi (SLM/MM),Arko Suliman Dahia, joined JEM with
16 vehicles. Nour commented that while he respects Minnawi's
bravery, tenacity, and military prowess, Minnawi now lacks
support and influence in Darfur. Nour claimed that the only
way Minnawi can prevent further defections and build stronger
alliances with SLA/Unity is "by buying their loyalty -
something that is impossible as Minnawi is suffering
financially." Nour said that this defection will not
complicate relations with SLM/MM as "Minnawi had lost Arko
long ago and it was only a matter of time before Dahia joined
another movement."


6. (C) Nour also reported that two SLA/Unity commanders,
Sadiq Bura and Salah Jerbo, are also ready to leave Unity and
join JEM. Nour said that JEM will accept Bura, but that JEM
leaders have not yet decided on Jerbo, as "we all know that
Jerbo is one of the rebels that (ICC Prosecutor) Ocampo has
on his list." Nour noted that JEM may accept Jerbo, but that
if the ICC does issue an indictment for him, "We would
immediately and unconditionally turn him over to the ICC."
Nour stated that he expects that the units controlled by
these two leaders will soon move into JEM controlled areas
for further negotiations. According to Nour, senior JEM and
SLA/Unity representatives met in October and November in
Ndjamena to discuss the possibility of a complete merger
between SLA/Unity and JEM. Nour said that seven SLA/Unity
representatives (including prominent Unity leaders such as
Suliman Jamous and Abubaker Kado) met with Khalil Ibrahim in
Ndjamena to discuss this merger, but that SLA/Unity leader
Abdallah Yehia declined the offer from the field the first
week of December. (Note: Two SLA/Unity representatives,
Zubeir Salim and Musa Ahmet Umar, based in Ndjamena confirmed
to poloff on December 15 that lengthy discussions between JEM
and SLA/Unity did take place in October and November, but
that the negotiations failed to deliver an agreement between
the two movements. More from these discussions will be
reported septel. End Note.)


RELATIONSHIP WITH GOVERNMENT OF CHAD
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7. (C) Nour claimed that JEM's relationship with the
Government of Sudan remains strong. He acknowledged that the
Government of Chad has significantly improved its military
and overall defense in 2008, but denied that this would
reduce the GoC's need for JEM. Nour claimed that the GoC
survives through a delicate balance between rival leaders of
Chad's military, intelligence, and extensive paramilitary and
security forces, and that the removal of JEM from this
equation would throw the whole system into utter chaos. Nour
also claimed that the appointment of DAUSA Deby as Chad's new
Ambassador to Libya, (note: DAUSA was often named as the
GOC's former point person for JEM) would not affect JEM's
relationship with the GoC. "In order to get anything done in
Chad," stated Nour, "you must go straight to the top and we
will continue to work directly with President Deby." Nour
asserted that DAUSA Deby's appointment does not indicate the
GoC's diminishing support for JEM, but only Chad's desire to
send a senior politician to Libya to deal with rising tension
along the Chad-Libyan border.

COMMENT
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8. (C) Much of what Nour reported repeats recent comments
from other JEM leaders and demonstrates the close
coordination of JEM's public message. While we are
distrustful of much of this, some of his information (i.e.
his interpretation of failed negotiations between JEM and
SLA/Unity, the power struggle within the NCP, and frequent
defections between rebel movements) corresponds closely with
other reports. Nour's unabashed reference to continued
support from the GoC and potential JEM attacks on the three
state capitals are both troubling, but could be grossly over
exaggerated and part of JEM's larger propaganda campaign.


BIO NOTE
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9. (C) Justice and Equality's Foreign Secretary, Bushara

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Suliman Nour, has been based in Ndjamena since January 2008.
Originally from Tine, Nour reported that he was a relative
of SLM/Minnawi General Secretary Ali DAUSA and classmates
with SLM/MM Member of Parliament Ali Traio. Since his
arrival in Ndjamena, Nour stated that he has spent most of
his time traveling throughout West Africa representing JEM.
He is fluent in English.


10. (U) Tripoli Minimize considered.
NIGRO