WORLD BANK TEAM IN CHAD VISIT SEEKS STRONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000493 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF ECON ETRD PHUM CD SUBJECT: WORLD BANK TEAM IN CHAD VISIT SEEKS STRONG GOC COMMITMENTS BEFORE IT AGREES TO A RENEWED RELATIONSHIP Classified By: A/DCM: REGribbin for reasons 1.4 B&D -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) A World Bank "technical" team is in Chad for a two-week visit to conduct a dialogue with the government designed to lead to a fuller resumption of ties and activities, but much will depend on the GOC's willingness and ability to meet minimum Bank criteria. The team will probe the GOC's commitment to "inclusive development," investigate development sector ministries, and scrutinize public finances. Should the Bank determine that Chad's commitment and progress are suitable, a visit by Prime Minister Abbas to Washington to confer with President Zoellick and then re-establishment of normal relations, including with the Bank reopening an office in Chad, would follow. We judge that there is indeed enough common ground for the Bank and the GOC to rebuild and restructure a working a relationship that will be beneficial not just to the GOC and the Bank, but more importantly to the people of Chad. But that does not mean it will happen, because President Deby's suspicion of the Bank runs deep. We will continue to urge the Bank to engage seriously and fully with the GOC and to take into account the current strategic and humanitarian dimensions of the Chadian situation. We will continue as well to urge the GOC to meet the Bank's legitimate demands as a necessary price to pay for a renewed relationship. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Deputy Country Coordinator for Central Africa Kathryn Hollifield and Senior Country Officer Emmanuel Ngankam called on Ambassador and A/DCM on October 27. Ms. Hollifield said she was leading a fifteen member "technical" team that would be having in depth talks with Chadian counterparts and donors over the next two weeks. She recalled the progression of events to date beginning with the rupture of relations last February; the visit of the Bank VP for Africa to Ndjamena in August; full repayment of the pipeline loans; discussions with GOC Finance and Economy Ministers in Washington; and subsequent agreement by both parties to take next steps. Country Director for Central Africa Mary Barton Dock plans to join the visit next week. The current visit was an essential first step: Good "technical" discussions and agreement on fundamentals here would be followed by the Prime Minister's visit to Washington for a meeting with Bank President Zoellick and reopening of a Bank office here. ¶3. (C) Hollifield said that the World Bank team was looking at four elements: (1) The eight currently ongoing bank projects; (2) GOC performance in key priority developmental areas - health, education, water, urban issues, infrastructure, and telecommunications, with the team examining how obstacles were being addressed; (3) Management of public finances (in close collaboration with the IMF; and (4) A joint GOC-Bank plan as to how the two would move ahead. In depth talks were already underway with the appropriate ministries. Ngankam noted that the team would also visit with the oil revenue management body, the so-called "College," in order to assess" what future role it would play in national decision making. The Bank team would continue plenary and inter-ministerial discussions next week and would consult more with donors and come up with some preliminary conclusions. Ms. Hollifield promised to keep us advised and noted that the country strategy for 2008 had expired so at minimum, the bank needed to devise a new document. ¶4. (C) In response to Ambassador's queries as to what went wrong originally, Hollifield said that "the percentage approach" to revenue management just did not work. Secondly, she opined that the pipeline MOU was never "owned" by the GOC. Deby, for example, referred to it as "the Bank's MOU." A new basis for GOC-Bank collaboration had to be arrived at and the GOC would have to agree to "joint ownership" of that new foundation. ¶5. (C) Ambassador and A/DCM reviewed external and internal diplomatic, political, and military developments since February (when the Bank closed its office here),noting the continued rebel threat to Chad's stability while emphasizing progress on various fronts, including a new "government of national unity" with a reform bent under a serious, purposeful, ad forward-looking PM; a revived Electoral Reform rocess according to the August 13 Accord; securiy improvement thanks to EUFOR and MINURCAT; the romise of a reinforced MINURCAT II; continued inernational community commitment to alleviating te humanitarian crisis in eastern Chad; and some GOC success in attracting rebel groups back into Chad on peaceful terms. They stressed that the international community should try to assist the GOC to build its capacities to make progress toward better govern and better protect its citizens while seeking to advance economic and social development through more responsible management of its oil resources. They told Hollifield that the Bank could play a key role in building Chad's capacity to do just that, in many areas, given the IFI's acknowledged expertise and experience. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) Although the Hollifield gave us the impression that the Bank was making a good-faith effort to reengage with Chad, a positive result was not a foregone conclusion: The Bank would expect deep and specific commitment by the GOC for "normalization of relations" between the two. We judge that there is indeed enough common ground for the Bank and the GOC to rebuild and restructure a working a relationship that will be beneficial not just to the GOC and the Bank, but more importantly to the people of Chad. But that does not necessarily mean it will happen, because President Deby's suspicion of the Bank runs deep. We will continue to urge the Bank to engage seriously and fully with the GOC and to take into account the current strategic and humanitarian dimensions of the Chadian situation. We will continue as well to urge the GOC to meet the Bank's legitimate demands as a necessary price to pay for a renewed relationship. End Comment. NIGRO