BRIEFING THE AFRICAN UNION MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000478

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2010
TAGS: PREL PREF AU CD SU
SUBJECT: BRIEFING THE AFRICAN UNION MISSION

Classified By: cda REGribbin for reasons 1.4 b&d


1. (C) Summary. I advised the visiting African Union mission
members whose mandate is to find ways to reduce tension
between Chad and Sudan that the prospects for improved
relations between the two capitals were marginal, probably
only cosmetic, pending the outcome of projected fighting with
rebel groups. End summary.


2. (C) The African Union group headed by former president of
Burundi Pierre Buyoya has been consulting widely in Ndjamena
during the past week with government officials, civil society
representatives, political party personnel, and
representatives of various embassies. I exchanged views with
them on October 14. Essentially, I outlined US priorities in
Chad to encompass resolution of the humanitarian crisis,
evolution towards democracy and improvement of development
performance. Regarding eastern troubles, I noted the
conundrum of both Chad and Sudan hosting and/or supporting
the other's rebels. Logically, each side should desist, but
neither appeared willing to do so, or especially, to be
first. I shared my view that both the Chadian government and
the Chadian rebels appeared poised and ready to fight. I
opined that some conflict was probably necessary before
either side would really be willing to look at alternatives.
Thus, some next step in the Chadian/Chadian rebels
conflagration would be prerequisite to forward movement in
relations with Sudan. Of course, if a Sudanese hand was more
fully revealed in such conflict, relations could worsen.


3. (C) Quizzed on Chadian links to Sudanese rebels, I
recounted that Zaghawa tribesmen moved easily across the
common border. There were long-standing links to JEM rebels,
whose personnel were periodically present in Chad. Asked
about arms, I said it was widely believed that the GOC passed
or procured equipment for the rebels. I did not doubt that
was the case. I noted that JEM forces had come to the aid of
the government during last February's fighting.


4. (C) Asked about internal political evolution, I indicated
American support for the electoral and other reforms
underway. I acknowledged that this would not result in a
perfect democratic process, but widening the envelope,
strengthening institutions and providing from greater
plurality were worthwhile objectives. Following some
resolution of the current confrontation with rebels, the
challenge would be to devise mechanisms that were even more
inclusive.


5. (C) Comment: Added to the Dakar Contact Group and the
Libyan initiative, the AU mission is one more potato in the
soup. Although I think they have learned a great deal about
the complexities of the situation in Chad, the AU team will
learn even more about regional complexities when they visit
Khartoum beginning next week. Thus far, Deby has resisted
entreaties to conform to continental advice to heal relations
with his neighbor. Although their weight is useful, I do not
see the AU mission being able to break the stalemate. End
comment
GRIBBIN