ESCALATING TENSIONS AS A CONFIDENT DEBY ATTACKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L NDJAMENA 000018

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR PARIS AND LONDON AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/08/2013
TAGS: PHUM PREF PREL CD SU
SUBJECT: ESCALATING TENSIONS AS A CONFIDENT DEBY ATTACKS
SUDAN-CHAD BORDER


Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY DCM LUCY TAMLYN FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D)



1. (C) Summary: On January 5, Chadian President Deby
delivered a blunt and confrontational speech to a
pro-government rally accusing Sudan of trying to destabilize
Chad by backing Chad's rebel groups. Meanwhile, news media
reported on January 7 that Chadian forces bombed rebel bases
along the Darfur-Chad border. Deby's confident speech, and
the aggressive air raids, seems to indicate that Deby is
ready to commit to pursuing a military strategy to deal with
the armed Chadian opposition -- even if that means
antagonizing and escalating tensions with the Government of
Sudan. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Repeating an assertion he has made before, President
Deby stated at a January 5 pro-government rally that the
unwillingness of the Sudanese government to end the support
for Chadian rebels is destabilizing Chad and will not be
tolerated. Deby stated that the continued support by Sudan of
"mercenaries" is affecting the security and stability of
Chad. In front of a crowd of approximately 1,500 supporters,
Deby went on to say that "no mercenaries will be allowed to
circulate in Chad" and that Chad "will destroy them (the
rebels/mercenaries) in their rear bases." (Note: Deby likely
was defining rear base as the use of Sudanese territory by
Chadian rebels as a place for resupply, rest and
recuperation. End Note) When queried directly by a rally
participant if he plans to cut diplomatic ties with Sudan,
Deby replied "allow me to consult with the government and in
some days, I will give you my final response." The January 7
diatribe against Sudan followed President Deby's New Year's
address (broadcast on national radio) which condemned the
"repression, terror, and barbarism" by the Khartoum regime
and accused President Bashir of seeking to destroy Chad.


3. (SBU) Meanwhile, on January 5 and 7, Chadian airplanes
bombed rebel bases near the West Darfur capital, Geneina,
killing upwards of nine rebels. Alwihda website reported that
armed rebellion commander Colonel Fizani Mahadjir was the
target of the air raids and two of his close bodyguards died
in the attack. This reportedly resulted in head of Sudanese
forces Bashir threatening to retaliate if the bombings
continue. In an interview with Radio France International
(RFI),the GOC spokesman said that although Chad does not
want a war with Sudan, Chad has the right to go after areas
where Chadian rebels movements have been allowed to operate
freely. Hoping to mitigate the tense atmosphere, Libya has
sent a message to both President Bashir and President Deby
asking them to play down confrontations, according to local
internet daily Chadactuel. In addition, the Security Council
and AU have called for both parties to ramp down tensions.


4. (C) COMMENT: Deby's aggressive stance with the Chadian
armed opposition seems to indicate that he feels confident
enough to go on the offensive against the Chadian rebels,
even if that means crossing the Chad-Sudanese border. He may
hope that, by attacking now before the arrival of the
EUFOR/MINURCAT force, he can neutralize the armed opposition
and avoid Sudanese retaliation. Nevertheless, by baiting
Sudan, he risks all out war with Khartoum and jeopardizes his
claim that Chad is a victim of Sudan's aggressive behavior.


5. (U) Tripoli minimize considered.
NIGRO