BAHAMA,S PRIME MINISTER CONSIDERING VISIT TO CUBA

C O N F I D E N T I A L NASSAU 000710 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL BF CU SUBJECT: BAHAMA,S PRIME MINISTER CONSIDERING VISIT TO CUBA AS PART OF CARICOM EVENT REF: A. STATE 105422 ¶B. NASSAU 692 Classified By: Charge for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham informed Charge October 4 that he was considering joining a "group of his peers" on a CARICOM-sponsored visit to Cuba in December (NFI). PM Ingraham said he had last traveled to Cuba "a couple of decades" ago and noted that his Free National Movement (FNM) party had unsuccessfully opposed the Progressive Labor Party (PLP) government when it established diplomatic relations with Havana in 2006. He nevertheless said he intended to participate in CARICOM,s upcoming event in Cuba. ¶2. (C) Charge responded by thanking PM for sharing his travel plans with us. Noting that he obviously had not consulted Washington, Charge said he was certain that at best the US would be deeply disappointed if PM Ingraham were to travel to Cuba. The US considered The Bahamas a close friend but such a trip would be troubling. Charge noted that the Cuban regime had taken no significant steps to warrant such a visit by the GCOB. Further, Charge previewed Cuba demarche (reftel) that Embassy Nassau was to deliver the following week to the MFA. PM Ingraham listened without comment to the message that the Castro government had rejected repeated US offers of humanitarian hurricane assistance for the Cuban people. ¶3. (C) Ingraham energetically stated that the "U.S. stands alone on the Cuban Embargo" and told Charge that during a meeting at the Oval Office, President Clinton had bluntly told him that the embargo policy was based entirely on Florida electoral votes. Charge replied that the Administration was pursuing a principled and long-standing bi-partisan policy toward a repressive regime. The Prime Minister countered that that argument would be better if the U.S. had not adopted very different policies toward North Korea, China and other such countries. Ingraham added that the times were changing vis-a-vis Cuba. He added his view that U.S. Cuba policy would in any event look much different after the November elections in the U.S. regardless of which candidate won. The Bahamas upgraded its Consulate in Cuba to an Embassy in July 2006. ¶4. (C) Comment: In post,s view, PM Ingraham likely has decided to travel to Cuba and this was his way of giving us an early warning. Until very recently, the PM had deliberately kept his government at a distance from Cuba and the GCOB even pointed this out during a visit to Nassau by WHA DAS Madison in August. But after months of inaction, Ingraham recently named a new ambassador to fill the vacancy the GCOB had in Havana (ref b). To follow that up with a personal visit would complete the picture of GCOB engagement with Cuba. Dissuading PM Ingraham would be difficult, particularly given the apparent CARICOM cover for the trip and given his having moved on to the next Administration in his political calculations. Direct engagement by an appropriately senior Washington interlocutor might get the PM to reconsider, but it would be an outside chance. ZUNIGA-BROWN