MP'S SURPRISE RESIGNATION UPSETS POLITICAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 000056

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR WHA/CAR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL BF
SUBJECT: MP'S SURPRISE RESIGNATION UPSETS POLITICAL
CALCULUS, UNDERMINES OPPOSITION LEADERSHIP

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (SBU) The opposition PLP lost a seat in parliament
January 9 as a Nassau MP resigned suddenly and declared
himself an independent. The MP's defection undermines the
PLP leadership's post-election strategy of contesting three
races in election court in hopes of overturning the governing
FNM's slim parliamentary majority. The resignation, which
was accompanied by a blistering exchange within the PLP
leadership, is a blow to the embattled PLP leader, former
Prime Minister Perry Christie. In advance of a planned party
convention in February, the MP's defection is certain to
reopen debate about Christie's record and the need for
strategic changes following the PLP's shock election defeat
in May 2007. The unexpected resignation has bared to the
public the in-fighting and backstabbing that had plagued the
PLP during its time in office and has only intensified
following the PLP's loss. The turnabout in parliamentary
fortunes eases pressure on the FNM government as it struggles
to deal with daunting challenges of crime and stagnating
tourism numbers. END SUMMARY.

--------------
SURPRISE DEFECTION
--------------


2. (U) Opposition MP Kenyatta Gibson shocked Bahamian
politics and the public by announcing his resignation from
the opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) in a two-page
media statement January 9, citing changes in personal
convictions but no specific grievances. He becomes the only
independent in a parliament now divided 23-17-1 in favor of
the governing Free National Movement (FNM). Gibson's
defection turns the PLP leadership's post-election strategy
of contesting three races in election court in hopes of
overturning the governing FNM's slim parliamentary majority
from desperate to irrelevant. With the PLP's parliamentary
strength reduced by one, the party would be unable to form a
majority even in the unlikely event that all three election
challenges were to end in victories in court. Gibson could
continue to vote with the PLP, but his very public and
acrimonious departure would be rendered meaningless in that
case, given the small policy differences and emphasis on
personality and patronage politics in both parties.

--------------
INSULTS FLY
--------------


3. (U) The surprise resignation not only upsets the PLP's
post-election calculus, but further undermines the already
weak position of PLP Leader Perry Christie who, like the rest
of the party, was reportedly "blindsided" by the news.
Gibson was initially circumspect in his resignation
statement: "I do not intend to spend the entirety of this
parliamentary session defending legacies and decisions to
promote the advancement of the few." But in reply to
Christie, who characterized the resignation as an act of
"political treachery" and called for him to give up his
parliamentary seat, Gibson unleashed a hail of invective.
His subsequent statement called Christie "reptilian", "washed
up" and a "cowardly bully," who was an "expert proponent of
self aggrandizement." Asserting that Christie was no longer
fit to lead the party, he described Christie as an
"arch-mediocrity, captain of all things small and petty,
master of all things which are insignificant and void."
Quoting from Oliver Cromwell, he concluded: "Depart I say,
and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"


4. (SBU) Gibson's resignation came only days after the PLP
Spokesman, ex-Foreign Minister Fred Mitchell, sought to
downplay in a media statement the likelihood of any
leadership challenges at the upcoming PLP convention. On the
contrary, Gibson's strategically timed announcement on the
eve of the anniversary of the PLP's achievement of majority
rule in 1967, added insult to injury by upstaging the party's
commemoration. It has also intensified questions about
Christie's viability as opposition leader -- already under
pressure from the shock election defeat in May 2007.
Already, Christie's record of leadership and the need for
strategic changes have been widely bandied about in the press
in advance of a planned party convention in February.

--------------
RELIEF FOR EMBATTLED FNM
--------------


5. (SBU) Striking like a thunderbolt out of a clear blue
sky, news of Gibson's resignation came just in time to become
the top story on evening news broadcasts and morning
newspaper headlines, pushing all other current affairs aside.
The media splash handed the FNM a bit of unexpected relief
after months of pressure from negative crime stories and
unfavorable tourism numbers, coupled with stinging opposition
attacks over both. The FNM's presumed courtship of another
MP whose allegiance to the PLP may be shaky, Malcolm
Adderley, may also return to center stage. Speculation about
Adderley's loyalties returned to the forefront recently after
Prime Minister Ingraham reappointed him to a two-year
position as Chairman of the Gaming Board, the sole PLP member
to hold on to such a position after the May 2007 elections.
While the urgency of such an effort might wane, the prospects
for another defection cannot be ruled out.

--------------
COMMENT: MOUNTING PLP FACTIONALISM
--------------


6. (SBU) Gibson's resignation is a big nail in Perry
Christie's political coffin. It will intensify pressure for
Christie to step aside for new leadership. It also eases
political pressure on the FNM government, which is expecting
to win ongoing court challenges to three seats by the PLP.
It is ironic that this attack came from Gibson, who was one
of the MP's involved in a high-profile fisticuffs in the
cabinet office earlier this year. Christie's unwillingness
to replace Gibson fed the image of his indecisiveness as a
leader, and of the PLP as a party without internal
discipline. Christie no doubt feels personally betrayed for
having stood by Gibson only to have Gibson bite his hand.
The resignation has laid bare the factional lines in the
party, with the party's official website now being used to
criticize other members, and those members in turn publicly
criticizing the party's own website. For the foreseeable
future, the PLP will be distracted and consumed with its
ongoing internal disarray and lack of direction. The party
convention, if and when it is held, may not resolve even the
leadership crisis. Christie had indicated to Post that he
would stay on only as long as the PLP had a realistic chance
of being named the victor in the contested seats. With this
defection and the (just announced) FNM victory in the first
court challenge, it is likely that Christie will now step
aside unless the factionalism is so strong that no consensus
can be reached on a successor.
SIEGEL