ELECTION COURT CONFIRMS GOVERNMENT WIN AFTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NASSAU 000146 SIPDIS SENSITIVE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV BF SUBJECT: ELECTION COURT CONFIRMS GOVERNMENT WIN AFTER RECOUNT REF: NASSAU 56 -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) The first of three legal challenges to results of the May 2007 elections was decided January 21 with a recount confirming the victory of the governing FNM party's candidate. The decision leaves the Ingraham government with an unassailable majority and scuppers any hopes the opposition PLP may have harbored of reversing the parliamentary balance in election court. The court accepted evidence that 110 people had voted illegally and ordered a "scrutiny" of remaining valid ballots to determine the result. Rather than providing the opposition with a post-election victory, the outcome of the court case has instead focused attention on the impact of the previous government's last-minute changes to constituency boundaries on the eve of elections. Top government officials blamed the late changes for confusion in the voter registration process and accused the previous government of incompetence and ill-intentions. -------------- GOVERNMENT WINS COURT CASE -------------- ¶2. (U) The first of three legal challenges to results of the May 2007 parliamentary races was decided January 21 after a new recount confirmed the victory of the governing Free National Movement's (FNM) candidate Byran Woodside, now Minister of State for Youth and Sports. The recount confirmed the original result in the Pinewood constituency in Nassau, albeit by a smaller margin of 49 votes (down from 64 according to the original tally). During the court case, both sides had contested a total of nearly 200 votes -- a relatively large number in the small election districts in The Bahamas. The election court accepted evidence that 110 people had voted illegally because they did not properly satisfy residency requirements. They then threw out these votes and ordered a "scrutiny" of ballots which ended with confirmation of Woodside's win. ¶3. (U) The decision leaves the government with an unassailable majority and dashes any hopes the opposition Progressive Liberal Party (PLP) still had of reversing the FNM's parliamentary majority in court, especially after the shock resignation of an opposition MP on January 9 (see reftel). The parliamentary balance remains 23-17 in favor of the FNM, with a single independent. Furthermore, the court result casts into doubt not only the political utility but the wisdom of pursuing the remaining two cases pending before election courts. Victories in the remaining two cases would still leave the FNM ahead 21-19-1, and likely cast further negative light on the previous government's poor performance in organizing the election. -------------- ANOTHER BLOW TO OPPOSITION -------------- ¶4. (U) Rather than providing the opposition with a post-election victory, the Pinewood constituency election court decision has instead focused renewed public attention on the then-governing PLP's wide-ranging, last-minute constituency boundary changes (read: gerrymandering). The changes are seen by some, certainly in the current government, to have introduced confusion and contributed to the voter registration problems identified in the election court proceedings. In their written ruling, justices stated that the parliamentary commissioner failed to ensure the integrity of the registration process and concluded: "This case exposed the most egregious failures in the parliamentary system." ¶5. (U) Elated FNM supporters held a victory rally on January 24, providing the Prime Minister, Hubert Ingraham, a soapbox to attack his predecessor and leader of the opposition, Perry Christie, for another instance of apparent government bungling. The Prime Minister blamed official "ineptitude, incompetence and late boundary changes" for disenfranchising Bahamians in the May 2007 election and contributing to the post-election controversies. He also strongly insinuated that the move was calculated to improve the incumbent party's chances at the polls, a move which clearly boomeranged to hurt the PLP. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The FNM now has nothing left to feel anxious about in the election court challenges, which become technical disputes without ramifications beyond the constituencies and candidates concerned, leaving the government to concentrate on tackling key domestic and bilateral issues. The PLP, on the other hand, has another -- and again largely self-inflicted -- wound to nurse ahead of its planned February convention. Notably, opposition leader Christie admitted privately to DCM that the court challenges and registration problems were a blemish on his administration, and a source of some embarrassment as any alleged irregularities occurred on the PLP watch. His attitude does nothing to dispel the impression that pre-election maneuverings, apparently designed to magnify the advantages of incumbency, have indeed backfired badly on the PLP. SIEGEL