Somalia: SRSG Ould-Abdallah on Way Forward

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000903 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/04/2018 TAGS: UNSC PGOV PREL SO SUBJECT: Somalia: SRSG Ould-Abdallah on Way Forward REF: Email April 4 to AF and AF/E Classified by Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for Reasons 1.4 (b, d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) UN Special Representative of the Secretary General Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah called on the Ambassador and Special Envoy to discuss the visit to Nairobi of the Alliance for the Re-Libration of Somalia (ARS),to vent his frustrations over dealing with ?the Europeans,? and to provide details on his vision for political dialogue with and among Somalis. End Summary ¶2. (C) UN Special Representative of the Secretary General Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah called on the Ambassador and Special Envoy April 2 to discuss the ongoing visit of the Alliance for the Re-Libration of Somalia (ARS) to Nairobi (Septel). The delegation will be in Nairobi for approximately a week (March 30-April 5),and has engaged in private talks with members of the international community, UN Offices, and Somalis. -------------- A Discussion, Not a Negotiation -------------- ¶3. (C) Ould-Abdallah assured us he is not/not seeking a negotiation, nor to restart a process such as the 2006 Khartoum talks between the Islamic Courts and the TFG, nor, to open up even for discussion the whole Kenyan process that led to the TFC. Rather, he said, he is aiming for a simple discussion. He would like the TFG and the ARS each to appoint 5-7 individuals who are empowered to meet and discuss issues of concern for a week or 10 days for the purpose of addressing political and security concerns. He believes the ARS can rightfully claim a sizable following, both among the diaspora as well as within Somalia. Ould-Abdallah told us the Ethiopians are supporting him, and he is coordinating closely with the TFG. -------------- Five Phase Approach -------------- ¶4. (C) Ould-Abdallah envisages future discussions based on a five stage approach. First would be achievement of broad agreement on an agenda and the designation of delegates. In principle Phase One would be completed by the time the ARS delegation departs Nairobi this week. Phase Two would be a period of internal discussions on each side; a development of the issues. Ould-Abdallah intends to focus primarily on security and political ;issues, but recognizes the agenda may constitute up to four or five broad areas, and certainly humanitarian issues. The Third Phase would be the meeting of the ARS and TFG delegations. Fed up with the Somali way of dragging meetings on for months and expecting others to pay for it, Ould-Abdallah said his goal is a ten day meeting, perhaps two weeks at most. His preferred location is Djibouti during May. The Fourth Phase would be the signing of an agreement, and the Fifth would be a conference on reconstruction, a sort of donors? conference to marshal resources which he said both the Swedes and Italians are anxious to host. ¶5. (C) The ARS has agreed to this and signed with the SRSG a 3-page MOU on the way forward (Ref). Full text Septel. ¶6. (C) In terms of a political outcome Ould-Abdallah said he sees two options. First would be that the ARS would become an official opposition that would be based in Somalia and function much as an opposition would in any ?normal? country. He said the Norwegians or Swedes would likely be more than eager to provide operational funding. The other potential outcome would be a government of national unity. Three ministerial positions remain vacant. Ould-Abdallah indicated that he has encouraged the Prime Minister to keep these seats vacant precisely to allow for the possibility of a more inclusive national unity government. -------------- Frustration with Europeans NAIROBI 00000903 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶7. (C) Since his arrival in Nairobi Ould-Abdallah has expressed impatience with some of the Nairobi-based Europeans over their independent side-dealings with Somalis. Particularly the Italians, but also the Swedes and some of the other smaller EU member states, have raised his ire. Prior to the arrival of the ARS delegation Ould-Abdallah asked specifically to be permitted to arrange their schedule and take the lead in meeting with them. However, within hours of making this request he learned the Italians and Swedes had scheduled independent dinners and meetings with the ARS before the SRSG was scheduled to meet with them. Outraged, he sent a letter to the French Ambassador, as current Chair of the EU, in which he asked her to confirm ?EU support for the central leadership role of the SRSG? and ?the EU representatives? position on Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the U.S. with regard to Somalia.? More than anything, Ould- Abdallah has said, he needs U.S. help with the Europeans. ¶8. (C) In preparing for his five phase approach to dialogue between the TFG and the ARS Ould-Abdallah is attempting to minimize opportunities for European meddling. He has assured us the meeting between the ARS and TFG will take place in Djibouti. However, his more public stance, including with the EU, is that it may take place in South Africa, Dar es Salaam, or other locations. The League of Arab States has offered the ARS accommodation and facilities in a Gulf State such as Qatar or Oman. Ould-Abdallah may have to compromise with a short visit to whichever Gulf State comes through with an offer, but he intends on hosting the dialogue in Djibouti and he wants to reduce the number of third party participants who show up to ?facilitate? dialogue. -------------- Next Steps -------------- ¶9. (C) Ould-Abdallah told us April 4 that he spoke with President Yusuf and explained where he was headed with the ARS. Yusuf reportedly said he knew the SRSG was his friend, and that he was acting on the best intentions of Somalia. Yusuf also seemed to indicate that he would support whatever outcomes were achieved as long as they were in accordance with Somalia?s constitution and laws. Ould-Abdallah expects the ARS to release a statement in the coming days, as the Ambassador and Special Envoy urged them to do, in which they call for a neutral U.N. international peacekeeping force. RANNEBERGER