Somalia - Tour d'Horizon with the Prime Minister

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 000446

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL EFIN EAID SO
SUBJECT: Somalia - Tour d'Horizon with the Prime Minister

REF: Nairobi 409


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Somalia's Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein
offered his perspectives on establishing security in Mogadishu,
reconciliation, training troops, selecting ministers, and focusing on
transitional tasks during a February 8 lunch meeting. The Prime
Minister reviewed many of the same themes highlighted by the Foreign
Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Information,
Youth and Sports during meetings on February 7 and 8. The Prime
Minister and his key cabinet members articulated their vision on the
next steps and how to strengthen the Transitional Federal
Institutions to create an environment where reconciliation and peace
are possible. End Summary.

--------------
The Public is Not Our Enemy
--------------


2. (SBU) On February 8, the Special Envoy met extensively with Prime
Minister Nur Hassan Hussein in Nairobi. The Prime Minister had just
arrived from Addis where he had met with President Abdullahi Yusuf.
(Note: We were told by one of Hussein's assistants that he and Yusuf
met for at least seven hours total during their time together. He
did not tell us any details of the discussions, but mentioned that
they were "still on the same page."). Also on February 8, we met
with Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Ali
Ahmed Jama Jangili and on February 7 with Deputy Prime Minister and
Minister of Information Youth and Sports Ahmed Abdisalam Adan. The
Special Envoy met again with the Prime Minister and several of his
staff during a larger February 9 meeting with UN officials and
members of the donor community. The representatives of Somalia's
Transitional Federal Government were transiting Nairobi from the AU
Summit on their way to Brussels for meetings with the European
Community.


3. (C) Prime Minister Hussein told us he continues to lead an "all
inclusive" reconciliation process. He said, "We are prepared to
discuss with everybody and will meet with the opposition where they
are. The only exclusions are those individuals who are formally
listed as international terrorists. We are not excluding the Shabaab
as a whole." The Prime Minister described the series of meetings in
Mogadishu where he was actively engaged in discussions with
representatives from a wide range of groups. Deputy Prime Minister
Abdisalam told us pointedly that in the past, "the public were
considered as enemies." He emphasized that following the lead of the
Prime Minister, the cabinet now is working in specific "hot spots,"
trying to help the people "shed their baggage of animosity and
mistrust." Through this process, the TFG is trying to broker local
agreements, working on reconciliation from the ground up, rather than
addressing reconciliation on a national scale.

--------------
Security Through Reconciliation
--------------


4. (C) The Prime Minister noted that getting the Ethiopians out of
Somalia is a shared goal of all parties. Abdisalam said, "Only
Ethiopia unites the opposition groups." In his outreach, PM Hussein
said he is emphasizing the critical link between reconciliation and
the withdrawal of Ethiopia. The Prime Minister confirmed that
Ethiopia pulled back its troops in Mogadishu at his request. "When
offering reconciliation, you have to be perceived as strong", Hussein
said. Abdisalam told us, "The Ethiopians are looking for a way out
and we want to put our own institution on the ground. Somalis have
to find the solution" The Prime Minister said that in going forward,
he plans to base a security plan for Mogadishu on discussions with
the military and police.


5. (C) Abdisalam stated that at present, "There are no TFG forces --
only militias associated with various individuals. There is a
breakdown of command, resulting in troops not responding to orders,
some of whom are robbing the public." The cabinet leaders all
emphasized that addressing the security situation is the most
critical task now facing the TFG. Prime Minister Hussein emphasized
his two-pronged approach: first, focusing on AMISOM and pushing
forward with the "not so easy" tasks of getting troop contributions,
and second, strengthening the Somali capacity to ensure security.
The Prime Minister identified the training of military and police in
Ethiopia as key to the medium and long term goal of enhanced Somali
capacity.

--------------
Ethiopian Training Fosters Nationalism
--------------


6. (C) Foreign Minister Jangili described the current training
program for Somali security forces in Ethiopia. He said that he, the
Prime Minister, and others who were in Addis for the AU Summit had

NAIROBI 00000446 002 OF 003


the opportunity to travel to the training location to visit the
Somali troops. (Note: Neither Jangili nor the Prime Minister
specified where the troops were being trained, but said it was a
remote location somewhere in the south of Ethiopia.). Jangili
described a very positive program where young, fit soldiers recruited
from all of the clans were participating in a six month training
program. Because the rigorous training is far from their usual
environments with the khat and negative influences that characterize
them, the troops have undergone "a wonderful transformation." They
are more disciplined and have bonded. Singing patriotic songs, they
are forging a collective national identity. "The clans have molded
into one army," Jangili claimed.


7. (C) Jangili told us the 650 "special forces" who have completed
the training are "doing great." As Somalis many they are familiar
with the environment and can carry out missions that would be
impossible for Ethiopian troops unfamiliar with the environment, he
reasoned. Jangili said the special forces have already carried out
several successful missions against the Shabaab. The Foreign
Minister approximated that a total of 1,200 police and 1,200 military
are to be trained. Prime Minister Hussein told us he is "totally
comfortable with the training" and looks forward to the troops return
to create a properly organized structure and command for Somalia's
security forces.

--------------
Engaging the Business Community
--------------


8. (C) The Prime Minister emphasized the positive role that the
business community can play in the reconciliation process and asked
the Special Envoy to tell him more about the recent meeting in Dubai.
When the cabinet arrived in Mogadishu, Abdisalam told us that the
business community was at his office the same afternoon. The Deputy
Prime Minister remarked that Mogadishu's business community is the
most organized of all the groups; presenting concerns, what they hope
to achieve, and what they want from the government. "Bakara market
has become the latest test of wills and the Prime Minister is
actively involved in brokering peace between militias, security
forces, and businessmen," he said. Abdisalam described a joint
committee that was being established to monitor security in
Mogadishu.


9. (SBU) The Prime Minister described an economic environment that
is being hampered by insecurity. Hussein said that changes in the
inflation rate have been historically associated with the formation
of cabinets and other political events. However, lack of formal
economic indicators makes it difficult to enact any fiscal policies,
he explained. The TFG is trying to address inflation, counterfeit
currency, and other economic issues, but does not have the capacity
to do so. Prime Minister Hussein asked for our assistance in
reactivating Somali membership in the IMF and the World Bank as the
first step in securing some of the expertise to address financial
issues. Hussein indicated that he is considering a stop in Dubai to
meet with the business community on his way back to Mogadishu from
Brussels. All of the ministers discussed the importance of engaging
the Diaspora.

--------------
Next Steps
--------------


10. (SBU) The Prime Minister assured us, "our priorities are linked
to the transitional tasks [set forth in the Transitional Federal
Charter]. We are very much committed to fulfilling these tasks,
which will be the measure of our success." The Prime Minister said
they are focused on the "Five Pillars" he introduced in his address
to Parliament. Hussein said that the first draft of the constitution
would be ready in July and they need to do consultations with the
public. (Comment: Although we had heard of the July target date, it
is unclear what consultative process has been initiated to prepare
this draft. End Comment). Other tasks included:
-- reconciliation accompanied by security
-- explaining the federal system to the public
-- strengthening local administrations
-- making operational national financial institutions
-- creating commissions, including an electoral committee.
In fulfilling these tasks, Hussein said they ha wanted to move
outside of the 4.5 Formula and toward a model of "one person, one
vote."


11. (SBU) The Special Envoy asked the Prime Minister when he planned
to appoint the final three ministers in his cabinet. Although he did
not offer a specific date, the Prime Minister said that the delay was
being caused by sub-clans who had not yet decided upon their
candidates. Instead of waiting for them to do so, he named the first
fifteen ministers. Through the selection process, Hussein said he is
"stepping away from clanism." He also said that there should be

NAIROBI 00000446 003 OF 003


space for at least one, maybe two, additional women as nominees.


12. (SBU) The Prime Minister discussed the proposal for the 6-month
"minimum package" for support (reftel). He voiced his concern over
having more direct management of the funds by UNDP in Nairobi. He
asked for our support in placing a technical specialist inside the
Ministry of Finance who could administer the funds and strengthen the
institutional systems. The Prime Minister argued that having
programs in Somalia and administration in Nairobi would "result in
delays that will kill the TFG." His preference is for all funds to
move through the Somali Central Bank, ensuring transparency and
bringing fund administration closer to the end user. (Note: We
understand that at the February 9 meeting with donors, the proposal
was agreed upon as drafted.)

--------------
Comment
--------------


13. (C) In his measured tone and quiet manner, the Prime Minister
was clear about the priorities of the Transitional Federal
Government. He indicated his intention to return to Mogadishu as
soon as possible (after his trip to Brussels February 11-12) to
continue the reconciliation process he initiated. Reiterating his
intention to dialogue with "anybody" and "meet with the opposition
where they are," the message remains the same even after his
discussions with President Yusuf. The Deputy Prime Minister and the
Minister of Foreign Affairs were both on message, reinforcing the
Prime Minister and the priorities of the TFG. The relationship with
Ethiopia is solid, according to the Prime Minister. In its public
presentation, the TFG is unified, speaking to its constituents, and
even engaging with the media to get its message out. All of these
signs are positive for Prime Minister Hussein, and at least for the
moment, President Yusuf appears to be prepared to let his Prime
Minister take the lead. End Comment.

RANNEBERGER