KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS: AT THE CRUNCH POINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 000444 SIPDIS SIPDIS FOR S, D, P, G, R, DS, DRL, AND AF A/S FRAZER FROM THE AMBASSADOR E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2018 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KE SUBJECT: KENYA'S ELECTORAL CRISIS: AT THE CRUNCH POINT REF: A. NAIROBI 419 ¶B. NAIROBI 380 ¶C. NAIROBI 371 ¶D. NAIROBI 370 Classified By: Ambassador Michael Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Following his meeting with Kibaki and Odinga on February 9, Annan announced that the two sides had agreed on the need for a political solution. The talks will reconvene February 11 to discuss details. The two sides remain far apart regarding what power-sharing should entail. In a sign of progress, the ban on demonstrations has been lifted. End summary. ¶2. (C) When the talks reconvene February 11 they will focus on the central issue of power-sharing. The meeting between Kibaki and Odinga which took place the afternoon of February 9 resulted in a major step forward: the government finally agreed with the ODM that a political solution is needed to resolve the current crisis and to address underlying grievances through institutional reform. We understand Annan made clear in the meeting that there must be a political solution. He was not asking them to agree, but rather informing them that the talks would proceed along those lines. Kibaki, according to one well-placed source, argued that a recount of the presidential electoral vote should be considered. Annan replied that a credible recount is not possible since all the relevant documents have not been securely maintained. ¶3. (C) Annan has asked the two sides to arrive at the talks on February 11 with specific proposals for power-sharing. It seems likely that the ODM may put forward a proposal calling for Odinga to become vice president or executive prime minister (but the latter position would require constitutional amendment),with fifty percent of all ministerial and civil service positions going to the ODM. The ODM proposal will almost certainly talk in terms of a transitional government of 1-2 years that would oversee institutional reform, following which there would be a new presidential election. The government will likely put forward something much more limited, perhaps offering a limited number of cabinet positions (without Odinga entering the government). The top people on each side have been meeting with their teams throughout the weekend. ¶4. (C) Neither Kibaki nor Odinga commented publicly following their meeting. Annan said that both sides realize the serious nature of the problems facing Kenya and agree on the need for unity and reconciliation. He also stated that the two sides had agreed that "a political settlement is the way forward." He expressed the hope that a deal would be worked out early during the week of February 11. The talks have been "constructive and cooperative," Annan said. Annan stated that the meeting with Kibaki and Odinga was intended to brief them. "I appealed to them to instruct their delegations to get it (the political settlement) done." Members of Annan,s support team told us that there is no deal and no draft on the table, but that Annan is pleased with the progress made in getting the two sides to move beyond legal wrangling to accept the need for a political solution. Following a meeting with the Ugandan Deputy Prime Minister February 10, Kibaki expressed confidence that "a sustainable solution to the current political situation would be found." During the funeral February 9 of one of the Members of Parliament who was killed, the ODM also noted progress in the talks, but emphasized that there can be no peace without justice and that the ODM will consult supporters before agreeing to any deal. ¶5. (SBU) Kibaki and Odinga also agreed to the convening of an informal session of Parliament (which is not in formal session at this time) on February 12 to receive a briefing on the talks. The session with Parliament is also intended to give moderte parliamentarians on both sides an opportunity to express support for a political solution, and to lay the groundwork for Parliament's cooperation to support whatever legal and constitutional changes may be necessary to implement a political deal. NAIROBI 00000444 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) In another sign of progress, the government on February 8 lifted the ban on public demonstrations. ¶7. (C) Comment. Agreement on the need for a political solution is an important step forward, but the two sides have dramatically different notions of what power-sharing should entail. Annan used the meeting with Kibaki and Odinga to push the ball forward. Our continued strong support will be vital to achieving the goal. End comment. RANNEBERGER