KENYA - FEBRUARY 8 SITREP

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000417 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR S/ES-O/CMS, AF/E, AF/EX, CA/OCS/ACS, DS/IP/AF E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC AMGT CASC PGOV EAID ECON PHUM PREL KE SUBJECT: KENYA - FEBRUARY 8 SITREP REF: A. NAIROBI 379, B. NAIROBI 378, C. NAIROBI 370, D. NAIROBI 367 SENSITIVE-BUT-UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE USG CHANNELS. ¶1. (SBU) POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: As noted ref B, the Kofi Annan-led negotiations in Nairobi entered their most critical and difficult phase February 7, as the parties began talks on power-sharing. We spoke with one ODM negotiator at their 1430 break and were told that the parties were making significant progress and that the ODM team was optimistic a deal might be reached soon. During the late afternoon session, however, PNU negotiator Martha Karua poured cold water on the day's progress by announcing a complete reversion to PNU's original position - that the parties must solve their differences in court. Raila Odinga did not take the bait, but stated at an evening press conference, flanked by Louis Michel, the European Union Commissioner for Humanitarian Affairs: "Initially, our stand was that we won the elections and Kibaki did not, hence he should resign and we should be sworn in. But we have said we are not static on that point. We are willing to yield some ground so that an acceptable solution can be found between us and the other side." Talks continued February 8, but will break for the weekend and resume on Monday, February 11. Kofi Annan is scheduled to meet separately with Kibaki and Odinga at the Statehouse at 1600, sources tell us. Two Kibaki-side provocations fizzled over the last 48 hours. The East African Community Heads of State Summit and an IGAD ministerial meeting that were scheduled to take place in Nairobi from February 7-8 were cancelled under pressure from nearly all sides, including Kofi Annan, the international community, and very robust protests from Kenyan civil society. The IGAD ministers were already in town and so met informally with each other and both sides to the negotiations. The heads of state never touched down. ¶2. (SBU) SECURITY SITUATION: Kenya has experienced a period of relative calm over the past few days, with no major reports of violence being received. The inevitable and already present upsurge in opportunistic criminal activities is being closely monitored by the RSO and the Kenyan security services. Loosely organized gangs of youths are taking advantage of the violence, threats of violence, abandoned properties, and the security forces diverted focus from crime, in order to loot, extort, and threaten the communities most affected by the recent violence. To date, no American Embassy employee or private American citizen has reported being affected or threatened by this new trend. Travel of all Mission employees continues to be monitored and approved by RSO and DCM, for the sake of accountability. ¶3. (SBU) U.S. MISSION POSTURE: There are no/no USDH personnel in the cities of Kisumu and Kericho. USAID OFDA field assessment team of two USDH and two FSNs are in the southern Rift Valley town of Narok. U.S. Peace Corps is completing its Close-of-Service workshop in Nairobi for their 58 Volunteers. In Nairobi, USG offices at the Gigiri Chancery compound and CDC/KEMRI compound are operating normally. International School of Kenya and Rosslyn Academy are open and buses are running without disruption. Power, water, and communications are fully operational. In-country travel policy is in effect and all personnel and family members are accounted for. ¶4. (SBU) HUMANITARIAN SITUATION: The USAID Disaster Assistance Response Team (USAID/DART) reports growing humanitarian needs in Kenya's Central Province, where up to 30,000 people have recently become internally displaced. These internally displaced persons (IDPs) consist of two groups: some are arriving from other provinces to seek shelter with relatives and host communities; others are fleeing the province out of fear or threats of additional violence. During a two-day assessment trip, the USAID/DART noted that few humanitarian organizations are present despite the deteriorating situation. The team's Field Officer observed a lack of emergency relief supplies and confirmed with Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS) staff that most relief supplies had previously been sent to conflict-affected areas of Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western provinces in the initial weeks of the emergency. The USAID/DART's field officer has contacted WFP and KRCS to highlight the situation and advocate for an increased emergency response in Central Province. ¶5. (SBU) U.S. CITIZENS: Consular wardens from Kisumu, Eldoret, Kitale, Nakuru and Naivasha (covering Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western provinces) report calm and quiet in their respective areas. All noted that life is getting back to normal and that businesses, banks, post offices and schools are open and functioning. The warden in Eldoret mentioned that she heard of isolated incidents of violence - for example, a spear being thrown through a window - but stated that they have not heard about any major incidents like roadblocks or torched houses. The warden in Kitale mentioned that he had visited a camp for IDPs near Kitale and that the camp was quiet. The warden in Kisumu specifically noted that travel in and around Kisumu is operating normally, although many locals are still fearful of traveling to Nairobi overland for fear of being targeted. The Nakuru warden noted that the burial of murdered MP David Kimutai Too will take place today in Kericho, which could prove to be a volatile event. The Naivasha warden reported that the many flower farms located in Naivasha are open and operating, although she had no information about staffing levels on the farms. Post revised its Situation Update as of February 6 and expects that a revised Travel Warning will be issued today. Rannenberger