KENYA - JANUARY 31 SITREP

UNCLAS NAIROBI 000339 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR S/ES-O/CMS, AF/E, AF/EX, CA/OCS/ACS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC AMGT CASC PGOV EAID ECON PHUM PREL KE SUBJECT: KENYA - JANUARY 31 SITREP SENSITIVE-BUT-UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR RELEASE OUTSIDE USG CHANNELS. ¶1. (SBU) POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS: Orange Democratic Movement (ODM - opposition) Member of Parliament for Ainamoi (Kericho District) David Kimutai Too (ethnic Kalenjin) was shot dead in Eldoret by Police Constable Andrew Moache (ethnic Kissi). Moache was arrested and will be transferred to Nakuru for arraignment, according to the Police Commissioner. Too was in his vehicle at the time parked along a road in the West Indies Estate (other reports put him in a hotel room or a house). A traffic policewoman named Eunice Chepkony was in the vehicle with him. She was shot in the legs and stomach and has since died in hospital. The police maintain this was a "crime of passion," with Chepkony the subject of mutual affection beween Too and Moache. In any event, this incident comes one week after the killing of another opposition MP, Merlitus Were, and has greatly increased already high tensions. Senior ODM figures are convinced that the government is whittling down the ODM majority in parliament through murder. Their supporters fervently believe this is the case. We have again offered the Commissioner of Police and the Minister of Internal Security the investigatory services of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. On the political front, formal talks between the two sides continue today. ¶2. (SBU) SECURITY SITUATION: All of Kenya was calm until violent outbreaks were experienced in Kisumu, Kericho, and Eldoret as a result of the killing of ODM MP of Parliament (MP) for Kericho, David Kimutai Too, in Eldoret. He is the second ODM MP to be slain within a week. Crowds looted the former Foreign Minister's private office in Kisumu before police being dispersed by police. As a result of the killings, all areas of Kenya remain tense and police are preparing for additional protests and violence. ¶3. (SBU) U.S. MISSION POSTURE: The Department approved In-Country Authorized Departure for Kisumu and environs. Personnel and family members have arrived in Nairobi. A total of four emergency USDH are in Kisumu and Kericho. Post is in the process of organizing the withdrawal of these four to Nairobi, which will occur either this afternoon/evening or tomorrow. Ambassador conducted Town Hall Meeting for Mission personnel and family members at the Embassy Compound today, and announced two policies regarding travel to and within Kenya. First, all Country Clearance Requests must be submitted in writing to the DCM for consideration. Second, all travel, official and personal, outside of Nairobi must be cleared by the RSO and approved in advance by the DCM. Special restrictions regarding travel to Kisumu and environs have been explained to all agency and section chiefs. In Nairobi, all Embassy Offices are open, including the warehouse (which had been closed on Tuesday following disturbances in that area). The International School of Kenya and Rosslyn Academy are open and buses are running normally. Jomo Kenyatta International Airport (JKIA) is open, flights are operating normally, and access roads are unobstructed. Office and residential electricity and water systems are operational, and fuel tanks for generators and vehicles are topped up. Communication circuits, IVG lines, E&E radio net, cellphones/SMS, and Blackberries are fully operational. Mission Kenya actual staffing on board today is: Total USDH/USPSC - 254; total LES/FSN/PSA 682; total long-term TDY -- 178; total short-term TDY - 43; PCVs -- 62. Total USDH in Kisumu and environs - 4. Post is in the process of informing the GOK that the Peace Corps program will be temporarily suspended. Peace Corps has already begun moving PCVs from their sites back to Nairobi for out-processing and return to CONUS next week. ¶4. (SBU) HUMANITARIAN SITUATION: USAID staff have received multiple reports of local officials attempting to close temporary settlement sites currently hosting internally displaced persons, without establishing an alternate settlement option, providing transport out of the area, or giving advance notice to the humanitarian relief community. In addition, relief agencies are noting threats against displaced populations who are sheltering at police stations, churches, schools, or other public facilities. The Kenya Red Cross Society and the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees are leading efforts to establish an inventory of existing settlement sites in order to address issues related to camp closures, evictions, and threats from hostile communities. In addition, USAID staff are engaging with U.N. and international relief organizations to share information on reported threats against displaced populations and discuss possible relocation plans. ¶5. (SBU) U.S. CITIZENS: The Consular Section has daily contact with our Amcit wardens in Kisumu, Nakuru, Eldoret and Kitale and Naivasha. Kisumu reported that the situation is calm today and activity is getting back to normal, although schools are still closed. The warden in Kisumu reached out to the 100 plus Amcits in his region and none are planning to leave. He noted that part of the Amcit population is a Mennonite compound of 50 plus members. The Mennonites have their own evacuation plan in place, should the situation require it. Another group of Amcits lives on a farm with an airstrip, and has its own evacuation plan as well. Nakuru reported calm overnight and the roads clear. The warden there spoke with other Amcits in his area (30 plus) and none are planning to leave. Eldoret has about 50 plus Amcits. Today's murder of an Eldoret MP (see above) has caused panic in the city. The warden is advising all Amcits to stay inside and avoid all travel. The warden reports that the airport in Eldoret is operating and commerical flights are going out (most full). Kitale (just north of Eldoret) has about 20 plus Amcits. The warden there noted that the situation is mostly calm, although there have been sporadic roadblocks on the outskirts of Eldoret. The Naivasha warden reports a calm but tense situation. She noted that Americans and Europeans are not being targeted. She has reached out to the 15 plus Amcits in her area and none are planning to leave. Since last sitrep, Consular has fielded about 5 phone calls from private Amcits looking for consular information. Consular will release the revised Travel Alert as a warden message, as soon as it is posted by Consular Affairs. ¶6. (SBU) OTHER DEVELOPMENTS - UN STATUS: Our Perm Rep to the UN programs with their global headquarters in Nairobi heard today at the UN that SyG Ban Ki Moon will arrive this evening to speak with Kibaki and Odinga. The UN wants to add extra wattage to Kofi Annan's efforts. He will then meet the Executive Director for the UN Office Nairobi (UNON) and other senior UN officials in Nairobi. UNON is the administrative and security umbrella for the many UN offices serving Kenya and the region from Nairobi. UN Front Office interlocutors told Perm Rep that the UN will likely relocate some of its operations as it has become too difficult to work around Kenya and in Nairobi. UN Security remains at Level 2: essential staff required to some to work, others work from home. They are reluctant to go to Level 3 which requires relocation. Current think would relocate the Somalia Office and the Iraq Office, probably to Geneva. The Executive Director offices for UNON, UN Habitat, and UNEP would remain. Again per Perm Rep's interlocutors, the Government of Kenya has not/not been lobbying the UN to remain, perhaps taking it for granted that they will. ¶7. (SBU) ECONOMIC IMPACT: Shaken by the upsurge in violence, on Tuesday the Nairobi Stock Exchange lost $571 million (5%) in value, the NSE-20 share index also fell 5%, and the shilling dropped to a three year low during trading. As of January 30, the shilling has fallen 16.3% since December 24 and the NSE-20 Index has fallen 14.3%. Based on an informal survey of its members, the influential Federation of Kenyan Employers (FKE) estimated its 2,500 members had already lost $832 million and will have to lay off about 90,000 people. According to the FKE, if there is no political settlement within two weeks, businesses will lose $3.3 billion in the first half of 2008, and lay off 240,000 workers. Roadblocks make the Nairobi-Uganda highway dangerous and difficult, requiring busses and trucks to run in guarded convoys, and protesters tore up two kilometers of the Mombasa-Kampala railroad. There is also a credible report of a bridge being blown up on the road between Kisumu and Kitale near Soi. Critical Kenyan agricultural export sectors are greatly restricted, and could lead to shortages in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan and the DR Congo. Rannenberger