Somalia - A Primer on the Puntland Elections

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002899 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM SOCI SO SUBJECT: Somalia - A Primer on the Puntland Elections ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The semi-autonomous region of Puntland will hold presidential elections on January 8, 2009. The President will be elected by the Parliament. Following the disputed elections of 2001/2002 and the departure of then Puntland President Abdullahi Yusuf for the Transitional Federal Government presidency, Somalia watchers are hoping for a more orderly process this time around. This is the first of a series of reports on the Puntland elections. End summary. Background -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Somalia's semi-autonomous region of Puntland is preparing for parliamentary and presidential elections, which will take place in December 2008 and January 2009, respectively. The current Parliament came to power in December 2004. The incumbent President assumed office in the same month, when then Puntland President Abdullahi Yusuf was chosen to be Transitional Federal Government President. The terms of Parliament and the President expire at the end of this year. ¶3. (SBU) Puntlanders, especially the candidates, have spent much time and effort debating which law will govern the January 2009 election: the 1998 transitional constitution or the 2008 draft constitution, which the Council of Ministers approved in August. The draft constitution has not been approved by referendum, which is necessary in order for it to take effect. Among the changes proposed in the draft constitution are a four-year Presidential term (as opposed to the five-year term proposed in the 1998 constitution),and an independent electoral commission comprising at least fifteen members. Election Mechanics -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Puntland president is elected by the 66 members of Parliament. The MPs are selected by their respective clan elders. Each clan has a designated number of MPs. The Parliament Ratification Commission approves the MPs' candidacies after confirming that they have the full support of their clan leaders. The MPs in turn elect the speaker of Parliament, the President, and the Vice President. Controversy Surrounding the 2009 Elections -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In response to disagreements about the 2009 election procedures, a group of traditional elders conducted a ten-day meeting in early December. The elders determined that the Parliament Ratification Commission would have seven members. Barkhad Ali Salah, policy adviser to current President Mohamud "Adde" Muse Hersi, will remain the commission's chairman and representative from Bari region, where Bossaso is located. The remaining six members will be appointed by the opposition (members for Nugal, Mudug and Ayn),while the current president was to appoint members from Sool, Sanaag, and Karkar regions. ¶6. (SBU) Another issue was security forces to maintain order during the election process. The traditional leader's document calls for the establishment of a 300-strong police force, the members of which will be drawn from different districts, to patrol Puntland's capital, Garowe, during the elections. The force was to be commanded by the Puntland government until December 31, according to the signed document. The traditional elders resolved that they would supervise the force from January 1 - 10, when the newly-elected administration would assume command. ¶7. (SBU) Finally, after opposition candidates expressed concerns, the traditional elders forbade the incumbent President from using public funds to finance his campaign. The Campaign -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Indirect elections means that campaigning in the community is less important than winning support from the 66 MPs. Among the techniques employed have been bribery, appealing to clan loyalties among the sitting MPs, and efforts by candidates to leverage their popularity. In most cases candidates have launched their runs well before the official, November 8 start of the official campaign. The Candidates -------------- NAIROBI 00002899 002 OF 002 ¶9. (SBU) Nearly twenty candidates, including many from the Diaspora, have declared their candidacy for the presidency. The incumbent was seen as an early favorite, but observers now believe the election could go to another candidate (septel). Following are biographical sketches of the six frontrunners: -- Mohamud Musse Hersi (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud Saleebaan): The current president's campaign is well-financed and he has a close relationship with many of the MPs. Hersi, however, has been heavily criticized for security lapses, which have seen the kidnapping of foreigners, an increase in piracy, and capture of the Sool region by Somaliland troops. -- Nuuradiin Aden Diiriye (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud Saleebaan): A young, educated candidate, well known by members of the international community. His campaign is also well-financed. -- General Abdullahi Ahmed Jama (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Warsengeli): A former Somali government official whose military background, some believe, will allow him to improve security in Puntland. -- Ali Abdi Aware (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud Saleebaan): Former Foreign Minister for President Hersi's government and a highly respected politician. -- Abdirahman Mohamed Faroole (Darod/Kabalah/Harti/Majerteen/Mohamud Saleebaan): Formerly a minister for the Puntland government with strong financial backing. (Note: The Harti clan, from which all candidates come, dominates Puntland. The Mohamud Saleebaan sub-clan is the clan of recently-resigned TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf.) The Issues -------------- ¶10. (SBU) All candidates have the same general platform: improving security, increasing foreign investment, more employment opportunities, and recovering the Sool region, which was captured by Somaliland troops about one year ago. RANNEBERGER