SOMALIA - PRESIDENT CONTINUES EFFORTS TO OUST PRIME

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002807 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E USUN PLEASE PASS A/S Frazer and AF/E-Garey E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM SOCI PINR SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENT CONTINUES EFFORTS TO OUST PRIME MINISTER REF: A) Nairobi 2652 B) Nairobi 2681 ¶1. (U) Continuing his effort to oust Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde," on December 16 President Abdullahi Yusuf nominated Mohammed Mahmud Guled "Gamadheere" prime minister. On December 15 Yusuf tried to sack the prime minister, but was rebuffed by the parliament in the form of a strong vote of confidence in Nur Adde and passage of his cabinet slate (reftel A). Nur Adde has since sworn in his ministers and is pushing parliament to debate the Joint Security Council's November 25 unity government proposal (reftel B). ¶2. (SBU) Citing Yusuf's continued challenge to Nur Adde, Kenya's Foreign Minister Wetangula threatened Yusuf with a travel ban and asset freeze, in keeping with a warning to Somali peace process spoilers in article 11 of the November 18 Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) declaration. Somalia watchers at the French Embassy in Nairobi told us they have recommended their delegation to the December 16 New York International Contact Group meeting push for communique language critical of President Yusuf. ¶3. (SBU) In a phone call with Special Envoy John Yates, the Speaker of Parliament Sheikh Aden Mohammed Nur said Yusuf's actions were contrary to the Transitional Federal Charter. Parliamentarians and others with whom we spoke expressed disdain for Yusuf's latest gambit. "It's the last kick of a dying horse," one told us. There was a consensus even among Yusuf supporters that he had badly misjudged how parliament would react. A former minister thought Yusuf's age, coupled with bad advice from his closest advisors had gotten the better of him. ¶4. (SBU) Yusuf's PM nominee Gamadheere is his long time ally. Gamadheere received mixed reviews from Somalis with whom we've consulted. Some praised him as a patriotic stalwart who never emigrated from Somalia like so many others over the last 18 years. Others discounted his abilities. Regardless of his qualifications, it seems unlikely Gamadheere will rise to the prime ministership. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Yusuf surprised us by following up his December 15 attempted sacking with such an antagonistic and seemingly ineffectual effort the very next day. He may be surprised himself that at least one IGAD state, Kenya, is considering sanctions - others may follow if he continues down this path. End Comment. RANNEBERGER