SOMALIA - PRESIDENT'S ATTEMPT TO SACK PM FOILED BY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002776 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: EWWT PREL PINS PGOV SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - PRESIDENT'S ATTEMPT TO SACK PM FOILED BY PARLIAMENT ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Abdullahi Yusuf's effort to fire the Prime Minister on December 14 has triggered a backlash from the transitional Parliament in Baidoa where, on December 15, a reported 143 parliamentarians passed a vote of confidence in the Prime Minister. Yusuf's decree, and the Parliament's response, set the scene for the next stage of the confrontation among the TFG's top leadership. The Prime Minister has told us that he intends to ask the Parliament to approve his long languishing transitional cabinet and get down to the business of defining the shape of the projected TFG - Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) unity government. He also held out the possibility that Parliament will vote no confidence in the President or even attempt the more difficult business of impeaching him. President Yusuf, as of this writing, has not reacted publicly to the Parliament's vote. End Summary. -------------- Yusuf Fires the Prime Minister -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On December 14, Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) President Abdullahi Yusuf told media he had signed a decree relieving Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein "Nur Adde" of his duties. President Yusuf cited Nur Adde's failure to prepare and submit a new constitution within one year of his appointment and his failure to create a functioning government as his reasons for dismissing the Prime Minister. According to media reports, Yusuf made thinly veiled references to Nur Adde as corrupt, ineffective and treasonous. In response, the Prime Minister reportedly called Yusuf a "liar." This latest crisis marks a new low in President Yusuf's and the Prime Minister's tumultuous relationship. -------------- Yusuf Certain He Has the Votes -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Special Envoy for Somalia John Yates reached President Yusuf by phone in Baidoa on December 14. Unlike recent conversations with us, Yusuf on December 14 was resolute and purposeful. He told S/E Yates that 157 parliamentarians backed his decision to sack Nur Adde, and said he would announce the Prime Minister's successor within three days. When asked, Yusuf denied widespread rumors that he had chosen Nur Adde's predecessor, Ali Mohamed Gedi, to replace the Prime Minister. His choice, Yusuf said, would "please" members of the international community. (Separately, at least one member of parliament reported that former Prime Minister Gedi was returning from Nairobi to Baidoa to position himself for the prime ministership.) -------------- Pressing the President -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In separate conversations December 14 and 15 both SRSG Ould-Abdallah and the Somalia Unit expressed to Yusuf Advisor Hussein Warsame our unhappiness with Yusuf's decision. Ould-Abdallah told Warsame that Nur Adde had been an extremely inclusive Prime Minister who had been attempting to advance the Djibouti Process. The timing of Yusuf's decision, on the eve of an International Contact Group that had high-level international attention, was "most unfortunate," and would test the patience of many in the international community. We also told Hussein that we saw nothing good in a decision to remove Nur Adde, noting that the one constant in the inability of TFG's prime ministers to improve governance institutions and complete transitional tasks was President Yusuf. -------------- PM Terms Yusuf's Decree Illegal; Parliament Reacts -------------- NAIROBI 00002776 002 OF 002 ¶5. (SBU) In a December 14 conversation with us, the Prime Minister termed Yusuf's decree "illegal," and said he had no intention of obeying it. Nur Adde said that he fully expected that the Parliament would approve his transitional cabinet on December 15, then precede to the formation of a unity government. (On December 15, the Parliament expressed confidence in Nur Adde's prime ministership by a vote of 143 - 20 with 7 abstentions, constituting a quorum). Nur Adde also thought it possible that the parliamentarians, who he said were unhappy with Yusuf's decree, would at a minimum vote no confidence in the President. On December 15, there was no formal discussion in the Parliament of beginning any no confidence or impeachment proceedings against Yusuf. The timing of Yusuf's decree, Nur Adde said, had been pegged to the Prime Minister's intention on December 15 to bypass the President in getting his proposed cabinet approved. (Note: Parliament also did not debate this proposed cabinet and expressed confidence in the existing body.) Yusuf realized he did not have the votes to block Nur Adde, and elected to attempt to fire him rather than see himself thwarted by the Prime Minister. -------------- Speaker Backs Prime Minister -------------- ¶6. (SBU) S/E Yates also spoke to Speaker of the Parliament Sheikh Aden Mohammed Nur "Madobe." The Speaker told S/E Yates that, contrary to President Yusuf's calculations, a majority of parliamentarians supported Nur Adde. The Speaker joined Nur Adde in predicting that the parliamentarians would vote no-confidence in the President. The Speaker also noted there was parliamentary agreement to discuss the Djibouti talks' proposal for a unity government characterized by a larger parliament and extended TFG mandate. The SRSG told us December 15 after a separate conversation with Sheikh Aden that the Speaker was firmly in the Prime Minister's camp. Comment -------------- ¶7. (SBU) It is unlikely that Yusuf's resistance to Nur Adde will end with today's vote by Parliament. He no doubt expected to be rebuffed by the parliamentarians, and is likely prepared to attempt to further escalate the confrontation. We hope to keep attention focused on the Djibouti Process by issuing a press release supporting personnel continuity and a focus on the positive work the ARS and its TFG counterparts are doing in Mogadishu. RANNEBERGER