SOMALIA - Political Perspectives from Dubai

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 002619 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER ALSO FOR AF/EPS - Ann Breiter and Ada Adler STATE PLEASE PASS TO USAID/EA COMMERCE FOR BECKY ERKUL E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ETRD EAID KWMN SO AE SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Political Perspectives from Dubai REF: Nairobi 2618 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. This cable is the second of two on Somalia's Dubai-based Diaspora (Reftel). The Somali community in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) drives Somalia's economy, and is intimately involved in its political landscape. Commercial ties within the Dubai business community are cross-clan, yet they maintain clear allegiances to clan and regional networks. They derided decision-making based on clan representation and said that Somalia needed new leaders with experience and demonstrated capacity. The Dubai-based Diaspora follows Somali events extremely closely, and some maintain regular contact with Somalia's political leaders within and outside of the government. They are disappointed by the failures of the TFG and many saw promise under the former Islamic Courts Union. The businessmen agreed that a strong functioning government is critical to protecting their interests and they would commit to supporting a peace process leading in this direction. These business leaders have significant influence on all sectors of Somalia's economy and are well-connected to the political process. Collaboration with this community is key to any long-term reconstruction and development and could help mitigate Somalia's immediate crisis. END SUMMARY. -------------- Somalia Will Always Be Home -------------- ¶2. (U) Between November 7 and 13, Somalia Unit PolOff met with some of Somalia's most successful business leaders who operate from Dubai but maintain major influence in the economic and political life of Somalia. We met with Somalis who have lived in Dubai for two and three decades, having gone to UAE for various reasons prior to the civil war. Most had arrived in Dubai in the last 15 years, usually after living in other countries before making their way to UAE to "claim their share of the wealth." Yusuf Haibeh Abdi, a shipping, media, and telecommunications executive and the leader of the Somaliland community in Dubai, told us he had been living in the region for 42 years, first in Qatar and now in UAE, initially traveling with his father, also a successful businessman. While the Somali community heralds its major businessmen, we also engaged with dozens of small and medium-sized Somali businesses that have also found success in Dubai. Many of the small-business owners are women who run jewelry, clothing, freight forwarding, and transportation companies catering to Somali and other African women who come to Dubai to purchase products to sell in their home countries, Somalia or otherwise. ¶3. (SBU) After visits to their homes, offices, and the communities in which they live, it is strikingly clear that these business leaders have done extremely well in Dubai. Most of their businesses are based on direct trade and investment in Somalia and they have highly diversified business interests with joint ventures across sectors. They also have shared investments, with business connections that cross clan boundaries. Some are investing in real estate, banking, and other Dubai-based transactions unrelated to Somalia. The Somali community is fully integrated into the Dubai lifestyle and both men and women have adopted the traditional Arab style of dress. They told us they are happy, their children are safe, and despite working long hours, they enjoy a good life in Dubai. However, almost all said they fully intend to return to Somalia as soon as the conditions are ripe. Our contacts proudly proclaimed that they participated in building Dubai from nothing, "just sand" into what it is today - they can do the same in Somalia. -------------- Fully Engaged in Current Events -------------- ¶4. (SBU) The Dubai-based Diaspora follows current events in Somalia extremely closely. All reported that they read and listen daily to the Somali-language media, and many watched Somali television from Hargeisa-based Universal TV and Nairobi-based Eastern Television Network. They were extremely well versed on political, economic, and security issues and were very interested to hear U.S. perspectives on the current political crisis. They also wanted to learn more about U.S. policy toward Somalia. The business leaders welcomed our description of a more robust engagement by the USG on Somalia and our invitation to hear their ideas about how we can be NAIROBI 00002619 002 OF 003 of greatest assistance. ¶5. (SBU) Further evincing their interest and influence in current events, some of the business leaders reported direct contact with key political actors. Somalilander Yusuf Haibeh Abdi said that he had spoken with Somaliland President Riyale a few hours prior and said he speaks to Riyale regularly. He said that Riyale personally told him of our visit to Hargeisa in September and welcomed continued engagement with the USG. Abdi told us that after the bombing, the Somaliland community in Dubai raised the money to purchase medical supplies and sent one ton of medicine to Hargeisa. Abdi was fully briefed about ongoing investigations into the bombing and shared with us the latest developments. Other business leaders reported conversations with TFG President Yusuf, TFG Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein, Puntland President Muse, and Chairman of the Alliance for the Re-Liberation of Somalia (ARS) Sheikh Sharif Ahmed. -------------- We Need a Strong Government -------------- ¶6. (SBU) A common theme among our interlocutors was that their business interests would improve under a capable and strong government. Their material support to the TFG and regional administrations has been significant, both with loans and payment of tariffs to officials in the regions where they have operations, they said. Shire Hagi Farah, Executive Director of Al Jubail Trading, operates fishing vessels and told us he pays substantial annual licensing fees to the Puntland administration. All agreed that on the national level, the TFG has been a failure and they have seen no benefits of President Yusuf's administration. Most said that if asked, they would be wiling to contribute both financially and practically, lending their professional expertise to the eventual formation of an elected government that could address business interests while serving the needs of the Somali people. They were clear in their belief that TFG was not, and could not become, this kind of government. ¶7. (SBU) Sharif Ahmed Ba'alawi is believed by many to be one of Somalia's most successful businessmen, with considerable and diversified operations across many sectors, including ownership of the state-of-the-art Coca-Cola bottling plant in Mogadishu. Ba'alawi acknowledged the difficulties of doing business in Somalia stating that insecurity and non-existent government institutions threaten his USD 8 million Coca-Cola investment. He told us his plant, with operations based on glass bottles, is unprofitable because security concerns and movement restrictions make distribution difficult and practically impossible to return bottles for refill. However, his diversified approach enables him to gain a fortune in other sectors, including real estate interests in Dubai, UK, and other countries and expansion into the Democratic Republic of Congo. "We know how to be successful in conflict, giving us a clear advantage over others who flee when things get difficult." He concluded by stating that if Somalia had a government that could provide security, his Mogadishu-based operations would be immediately profitable. This sentiment was echoed by telecommunications operators and others who said they would be able to immediately expand operations if the conditions were right. -------------- Promise Under Union of Islamic Courts -------------- ¶8. (SBU) While all decried the growing presence of al-Shabaab, several mentioned the immense promise they felt with the establishment of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in 2006. For example, Ba'alawi told us that when the ICU came into power, he began spending more time in Mogadishu. "For the first time in a long time, I felt safe and was not obligated to travel with fifty bodyguards. I could drive my car alone through the streets which were open and without roadblocks, families were enjoying the beach one the weekends, and Mogadishu was reminiscent of the ways things were in Somalia 20 years ago," he said. Although he was considering a significant investment in Rwanda in 2006, Ba'alawi chose instead to purchase 400,000 square meters of property in Somalia for development. He said that at the time of the ICU, he believed that Somalia had finally taken a turn for the better. NAIROBI 00002619 003 OF 003 ¶9. (SBU) Ba'alawi said he has great respect for Sheikh Sharif because he is honest, unlike so many of the "so-called Somali leaders." Ba'alawi told us he had just invited Sharif to Dubai to meet with the Somali community and it would be his first visit since the ICU was ousted. (Note: In a November 9 meeting in Dubai, ARS Central Committee Chairman Sharif Hassan Aden told us he would wait until Sharif was prepared to travel to Dubai in order to hold an "important" gathering of business leaders to solicit their support for a Unity Government. We recommended that Hassan consider making this a joint trip between ARS and TFG representatives to underscore commitment to Unity Government.) ¶10. (SBU) When we asked Ba'alawi about his views on the Unity Government, he replied that he does not see the benefit of Sheikh Sharif joining the current TFG administration because it is "completely bankrupt" and would bring down anybody associated with it. Instead, he believes that ARS should remain on the outside, as a formal opposition movement, and "return" to power at the end of Transitional Federal Charter mandate. To achieve peace, Ba'alawi said, Ethiopia must withdraw. "When this occurs, there will be no ideological reason left for fighting -- al-Shabaab will die a natural death," he said. Ba'alawi also suggested that the ARS-Asmara faction should be brought into the peace process and said that he met with one of its leaders in Dubai, pushing him to leave Eritrea. He believes that more than even before, this faction is close to leaving Asmara. -------------- Abolish 4.5 Clan Formula -------------- ¶11. (SBU) All of the business leaders agreed, no matter the size of their company, that for Somalia to escape its current situation, everyone must stop looking at clan affiliation as the most important dimension for leadership. Individuals from all clans expressed this shared sentiment. For example, Ba'alawi remains influential in the Banadir region although he is a member of the Ashraf coastal minority group. He lamented that clan interests are one of the major sources of the current crisis and will forever prevent progress unless Somalia abolishes the 4.5 formula for clan representation. He offered his own example of what is fundamentally wrong with Somalia: although he is favorably regarded across Somalia, he would "not receive even one vote" if he were to run for elected office because of his clan affiliation. Ba'alawi said that as a result of the resurgent supremacy of clan interests, "Somalis would prefer an illiterate fool than someone with proven experience and a track record of success." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Ba'alawi told us he plans to keep his land in Somalia because he firmly believes that the country can once again be a haven for tourism and business, led by a private sector that could enable it to become a regional powerhouse. All our interlocutors agreed that to do this, Somalia needs a government. The Dubai-based business community expressed a commitment to making Somalia's future greater than its past, and is willing to help liberate it from a present mired in conflict and clan interests. This sentiment was echoed in all of our meetings. This Diaspora community expressed willingness to provide vision and advice to Somalia's leaders and several expressed interest in becoming part of Somalia's political class. The creativity and acumen that has made them successful in a Somalia's high-risk business environment may be the vital traits necessary to lead Somalia out of its present conflict. ¶13. (U) The Somalia Unit thanks Consulate Dubai for facilitating the visit on which this telegram is based. RANNEBERGER