MARTHA KARUA ELECTED AS NARC-KENYA PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002613 SIPDIS LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE SUBJECT: MARTHA KARUA ELECTED AS NARC-KENYA PARTY CHAIRPERSON Classified By: Political Counselor Mitch Benedict, for reasons 1.4 (B a nd D) ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: On November 14, a convention of 2,000 delegates of the National Rainbow Coalition - Kenya (NARC-Kenya) elected current Minister of Justice, National Cohesion, and Constitutional Affairs Martha Karua as its Chairperson. Karua has made no secret of her desire to contest the 2012 Kenyan presidential elections, and her elevation to NARC-Kenya Chairperson provides her a solid platform to do so. The convention also elected Karua allies to the key positions of Deputy Chairman and Secretary General. The convention is the culmination of Karua's efforts to consolidate her hold on the party; it also maintains regional balance for a party hoping to brand itself as a national party. Karua's takeover of NARC-Kenya will also have implications for President Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU); NARC-Kenya has provided a large number of PNU Members of Parliament. These MPs will continue to operate under the PNU umbrella, but are likely to act more independently as Karua tries to differentiate herself from potential rivals Deputy Prime Minister/Trade Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Minister of Internal Security and Provincial Administration George Saitoti - who are both PNU leaders. End Summary. -------------- KARUA SEEKS A VEHICLE -------------- ¶2. (U) Martha Karua has made no effort to hide her presidential ambitions. She declared her interest in standing for president in 2012 in March, while Kenya was still contesting the results of the 2007 presidential election. Her hope was to run as the chosen candidate of President Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU). Karua believed she was in a strong position to do this because, as acting Chairperson of the National Rainbow Coalition - Kenya (NARC-Kenya),she brought NARC-Kenya into the PNU camp in the run-up to the 2007 elections. When the Grand Coalition government was being formed, Karua engaged in a highly public lobbying campaign to be appointed Deputy Prime Minister. However, Kibaki snubbed her and instead appointed Uhuru Kenyatta to the position. After this, Karua increasingly felt that President Kibaki and those around him were attempting to using PNU as a vehicle to promote Kenyatta as Kibaki's successor. This caused her to �A;seek an independent platform from which to seek the presidency in 2012. ¶3. (U) Already acting Chairperson of NARC-Kenya, Karua had a ready vehicle but she needed to consolidate her power over the party and also steer it free of PNU. In June Karua convened a meeting of the NARC-Kenya leadership at which she engineered the dismissal of another potential presidential rival in 2012 -- Minister of Internal Security and Provincial Administration George Saitoti -- from the leadership of NARC-K due to alleged non-participation in party affairs. She also moved to have her allies assume lead roles in organizing a party convention necessary for NARC-Kenya to adopt the organizational changes required by the Political Parties Act - a prerequisite for all political parties wanting to operate beyond 2008 (septel). -------------- STEERING CLEAR OF PNU -------------- ¶4. (U) Karua had been distancing NARC-Kenya from PNU since July, when President Kibaki convened a meeting of PNU's 15 constituent parties and insisted they dissolve and form one large political party. Karua balked, stating that NARC-Kenya had made a big mistake joining PNU and had weakened itself, claiming many NARC-Kenya candidates had been left out during the PNU nominations process. She has continued to speak publicly about the need for Narc-Kenya to reestablish its national brand and differentiate itself from PNU. ¶5. (U) The NARC-Kenya convention held on November 14 in Nairobi, therefore, was the culmination of Karua's efforts to take firm hold of NARC-Kenya and to set it on a path independent of PNU. She succeeded on both accounts. Karua obtained near-unanimous support from the 2,000 delegates in NAIROBI 00002613 002 OF 002 attendance. She also succeeded in place two strong allies in key leadership positions. Assistant Minister for Housing Asman Kamama (Rift Valley) was elected Deputy Chairman, while Assistant Minister for Health Services Danson Mungatana (Coast Province) was elected Party Secretary. These appointments allow the party to attempt position itself as a national party. -------------- IMPACT ON PNU -------------- ¶6. (U) Having set NARC-Kenya on an independent path will also impact PNU. With Karua at the helm, NARC-Kenya will increasingly chart an independent path, which will inevitably weaken PNU. NARC-Kenya has 23 MPs, including 19 of 43 MPs elected on a PNU ticket. (Note: Four MPs were elected on NARC-Kenya tickets; due to anti-Kikuyu/PNU sentiment in certain areas running on a PNU ticket would have led to defeat. These four also vote with PNU. End Note) NARC-Kenya MPs will continue to caucus with PNU, however, as withdrawal from the PNU caucus would cause their seats to be declared vacant, triggering by-elections - a move that no MP will support. However, we anticipate NARC-Kenya will leverage its numerical strength within PNU's Parliamentary Group to influence policy decisions. It may use tactical non-appearances by its MPs to stymie PNU in parliament when NARC- Kenya disagrees with PNU decisions. On the leadership front, Karua remains loyal to President Kibaki. However, her elimination of George Saitoti from a leadership role within NARC-Kenya means that Saitoti's political future is now firmly tied to PNU, and he therefore must compete with Uhuru Kenyatta to be the PNU leader in the run-up to the 2012 elections. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Karua's takeover of NARC-Kenya provides the vehicle for her presidential candidacy in 2012. Karua, who is known for her abrasive manner, will need to remake her image if she wants to be a serious contender. Already she has hired a public relations firm to help fashion a kinder and gentler persona within the public imagination. She must also contend with the resistance of her Kikuyu tribe to women leaders. One contact told poloff that Kikuyu elders had already told Karua that they would not support a woman candidate for president. Even more insurmountable may be the resistance of many Kenyans to another Kikuyu president following Kibaki. She certainly has her work cut out for her, but Karua is a formidable person and has shown that she is a battler. While she is unlikely to become the next president, she may well garner enough support to play the role of spoiler. End Comment. RANNEBERGER