MARTHA KARUA ELECTED AS NARC-KENYA PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 002613

SIPDIS

LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KE
SUBJECT: MARTHA KARUA ELECTED AS NARC-KENYA PARTY
CHAIRPERSON

Classified By: Political Counselor Mitch Benedict, for reasons 1.4 (B a
nd D)


1. (U) SUMMARY: On November 14, a convention of 2,000
delegates of the National Rainbow Coalition - Kenya
(NARC-Kenya) elected current Minister of Justice, National
Cohesion, and Constitutional Affairs Martha Karua as its
Chairperson. Karua has made no secret of her desire to
contest the 2012 Kenyan presidential elections, and her
elevation to NARC-Kenya Chairperson provides her a solid
platform to do so. The convention also elected Karua
allies to the key positions of Deputy Chairman and
Secretary General. The convention is the culmination of
Karua's efforts to consolidate her hold on the party; it
also maintains regional balance for a party hoping to brand
itself as a national party. Karua's takeover of NARC-Kenya
will also have implications for President Kibaki's Party of
National Unity (PNU); NARC-Kenya has provided a large
number of PNU Members of Parliament. These MPs will
continue to operate under the PNU umbrella, but are likely
to act more independently as Karua tries to differentiate
herself from potential rivals Deputy Prime Minister/Trade
Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Minister of Internal Security
and Provincial Administration George Saitoti - who are both
PNU leaders. End Summary.

--------------
KARUA SEEKS A VEHICLE
--------------


2. (U) Martha Karua has made no effort to hide her
presidential ambitions. She declared her interest in
standing for president in 2012 in March, while Kenya was
still contesting the results of the 2007 presidential
election. Her hope was to run as the chosen candidate of
President Kibaki's Party of National Unity (PNU). Karua
believed she was in a strong position to do this because, as
acting Chairperson of the National Rainbow Coalition -
Kenya (NARC-Kenya),she brought NARC-Kenya into the PNU
camp in the run-up to the 2007 elections. When the Grand
Coalition government was being formed, Karua engaged in a
highly public lobbying campaign to be appointed Deputy
Prime Minister. However, Kibaki snubbed her and instead
appointed Uhuru Kenyatta to the position. After this,
Karua increasingly felt that President Kibaki and those
around him were attempting to using PNU as a vehicle to
promote Kenyatta as Kibaki's successor. This caused her to
seek an independent platform from which to seek the
presidency in 2012.


3. (U) Already acting Chairperson of NARC-Kenya, Karua had a
ready vehicle but she needed to consolidate her power over
the party and also steer it free of PNU. In June Karua
convened a meeting of the NARC-Kenya leadership at which
she engineered the dismissal of another potential
presidential rival in 2012 -- Minister of Internal Security
and Provincial Administration George Saitoti -- from the
leadership of NARC-K due to alleged non-participation in
party affairs. She also moved to have her allies assume
lead roles in organizing a party convention necessary for
NARC-Kenya to adopt the organizational changes required by
the Political Parties Act - a prerequisite for all political
parties wanting to operate beyond 2008 (septel).

--------------
STEERING CLEAR OF PNU
--------------


4. (U) Karua had been distancing NARC-Kenya from PNU since
July, when President Kibaki convened a meeting of PNU's 15
constituent parties and insisted they dissolve and form one
large political party. Karua balked, stating that
NARC-Kenya had made a big mistake joining PNU and had
weakened itself, claiming many NARC-Kenya candidates had
been left out during the PNU nominations process. She
has continued to speak publicly about the need for
Narc-Kenya to reestablish its national brand and
differentiate itself from PNU.


5. (U) The NARC-Kenya convention held on November 14 in
Nairobi, therefore, was the culmination of Karua's efforts
to take firm hold of NARC-Kenya and to set it on a path
independent of PNU. She succeeded on both accounts. Karua
obtained near-unanimous support from the 2,000 delegates in

NAIROBI 00002613 002 OF 002


attendance. She also succeeded in place two strong allies
in key leadership positions. Assistant Minister for
Housing Asman Kamama (Rift Valley) was elected Deputy
Chairman, while Assistant Minister for Health Services
Danson Mungatana (Coast Province) was elected Party
Secretary. These appointments allow the party to attempt
position itself as a national party.

--------------
IMPACT ON PNU
--------------


6. (U) Having set NARC-Kenya on an independent path will
also
impact PNU. With Karua at the helm, NARC-Kenya will
increasingly chart an independent path, which will inevitably
weaken
PNU. NARC-Kenya has 23 MPs, including 19 of 43 MPs elected
on a PNU
ticket. (Note: Four MPs were elected on NARC-Kenya tickets;
due to
anti-Kikuyu/PNU sentiment in certain areas running on a PNU
ticket
would have led to defeat. These four also vote with PNU. End
Note)
NARC-Kenya MPs will continue to caucus with PNU, however,
as withdrawal from the PNU caucus would cause their seats
to be declared vacant, triggering by-elections - a move
that no MP will support. However, we anticipate
NARC-Kenya will leverage its numerical strength within
PNU's Parliamentary Group to influence policy decisions. It
may use tactical non-appearances by its MPs to stymie PNU
in parliament when NARC- Kenya disagrees with PNU
decisions. On the leadership front, Karua remains loyal to
President Kibaki. However, her elimination of George
Saitoti from a leadership role within NARC-Kenya means that
Saitoti's political future is now firmly tied to PNU, and he
therefore must compete with Uhuru Kenyatta to be the PNU
leader
in the run-up to the 2012 elections.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) Karua's takeover of NARC-Kenya provides the vehicle
for her presidential candidacy in 2012. Karua, who is
known for her abrasive manner, will need to remake her
image if she wants to be a serious contender. Already she
has hired a public relations firm to help fashion a
kinder and gentler persona within the public imagination.
She must also contend with the resistance of her Kikuyu
tribe to women leaders. One contact told poloff that
Kikuyu elders had already told Karua that they would not
support a woman candidate for president. Even more
insurmountable may be the resistance of many Kenyans to
another Kikuyu president following Kibaki. She certainly
has her work cut out for her, but Karua is a formidable
person and has shown that she is a battler. While she is
unlikely to become the next president, she may well garner
enough support to play the role of spoiler. End Comment.
RANNEBERGER