SOMALIA - A/S Frazer Meeting with ARS Leaders

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 002580 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - A/S Frazer Meeting with ARS Leaders ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On October 29, Assistant Secretary Frazer discussed the importance of a political solution as the foundation for increasing security and addressing Somalia's humanitarian crisis with leaders of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia. ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif indicated his resolve to work with all Somalis to find a resolution to the Somali problem, beginning with the establishment of a unity government. The ARS leaders noted progress in the Djibouti Process, citing the next step as a parliament that adds an equal number of members of the ARS to the existing organ. This new parliament would then elect new leaders to guide Somalia through a transitional period of three to four years, they said, to pave the way for elections. The ARS leaders asked for U.S. assistance in deployment of an international peacekeeping force, in drawing more attention to the humanitarian crisis, and in generating political support for the peace process. End summary. -------------- Committed to A Common Solution -------------- ¶2. (U) On October 29, Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer met with leaders of the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) on the margins of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Summit on Somalia in Nairobi (to be reported septel). It was A/S Frazer's first meeting with ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif Ahmed. Other ARS representatives in attendance were Chairman of the Central Committee Sharif Hassan Aden, and members of the ARS Central Committee Asha Hagi Elmi, Fowzia Mohamed, and Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, all of whom are also members of the High Level Committee implementing the Djibouti Agreement. Also present at the meeting were Ambassador Ranneberger, Special Envoy Yates, Special Assistant Dana Banks, and PolOff Jessica Davis Ba (notetaker). ¶3. (SBU) ARS Chairman Sheikh Sharif opened the discussion by stating that the present humanitarian crisis; deterioration in the security, especially the targeting of aid workers; piracy; and other problems facing Somalia can all be attributed to political differences. Sharif said, "We are resolved, as Somalis, to work together to find a common solution to the Somalia problem to eliminate the suffering of our people." To solve these problems, he said, "We have joined the dialogue and have lived up to our obligations and hope that you will also honor your promises." Sharif concluded his opening remarks by underscoring their intent to find a genuine and a lasting solution, beginning with urgent attention to humanitarian issues. ¶4. (SBU) Chairman of the ARS Central Committee Sharif Hassan noted ARS commitment to a solution to the long-standing issues that have plagued Somalia. He said the ARS is not opposed to establishing institutions and that a new governing structure is needed for the interim transitional period. Hassan echoed Sharif's point that a political solution must be at the root of any change and that unless this is resolved, nothing positive can occur. Hassan said, "Somalis are now mature and they are ready to support a peace settlement." He appealed to the U.S. for help to forge a political solution. -------------- Linking Political Progress and Security -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A/S Frazer responded that we share the same objective and have the same motivation - the Somali people. She noted the primary U.S. concern as the humanitarian situation and securing access for assistance. A/S Frazer agreed with the ARS analysis of the link between political progress and improving security, commending the leaders on the steps they have taken to find a political solution to sustain the country. Frazer indicated a willingness to work together, emphasizing that the U.S in not prescribing the process. She noted the full support of the U.S. for the UN Special Representative of the Secretary General for Somalia (SRSG) and for the progress made through the Djibouti Agreement. She said that in the short term, visible progress is needed on the ground and that Sharif and Hassan are needed in Somalia. ¶6. (SBU) Sharif responded, "It is true that we want to go back to our country and to sell the idea of peace, but there are certain conditions that must first be met -- complete the shaping of a NAIROBI 00002580 002 OF 004 political framework and establish a clear and viable schedule for Ethiopian withdrawal." Sharif said there should be much more clarity on these issues in the coming days, allowing them to move forward to prepare for a mission into Somalia. Responding to A/S Frazer's question on how the U.S. can help, Sharif said that as the only superpower, a full and open U.S. commitment to the political process will help create Somali support for "a viable government, responsive to the needs of its people." In particular, Sharif asked for U.S. leadership to deploy an international peacekeeping force, and in drawing more attention to the humanitarian crisis, and in generating political support for the peace process. ¶7. (SBU) Frazer responded that the U.S. is pushing the UN on a peacekeeping force, stating that a clear statement in the communique from the IGAD Summit should help move this forward. On the humanitarian side, A/S Frazer said, we are prepared to do more and have resources to do so, but are hampered by access. On the political front, she asked for more specifics about "the Sharifs'" vision for an interim organ, and for the views of Somalia's neighbors on this approach. -------------- Views on Transitional Governance -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Sharif replied, "It is obvious the Transitional Federal Government [TFG] has failed." Any vision for a framework for an interim government must be based on equal opportunity for the TFG and the ARS, he said. Sharif said that to begin, the number of MPs in the transitional federal parliament should be increased by adding 275 representatives affiliated with the ARS to the current 275-member body as a solution to avoid any stakeholders being left out. Hassan added that with only a few months left in the TFG's term, it was obvious the TFG would be unable to fulfill the charter and that the current government should not be allowed to continue. Hassan added that the ARS - TFG agreement should be reflected in the composition of parliament. He concluded that once a unified administration was in place, there would be minimal interference by spoilers. ¶9. (SBU) Ahmed Abdullahi, who is one of the Central Committee leaders from the Islamic Courts contingent told A/S Frazer that ARS, with the support from the international community, is more assertive than the TFG and can show measurable progress on the ground. He concluded that "we are making a concession to agree to work with them, but the humanitarian situation requires us to take urgent steps." Abdullahi said the ARS is ready to play its role in facilitating the delivery of aid. Fowzia Mohamed added that the interim administration they have agreed to join is only a temporary structure to prepare the ground for elections. If it does not succeed, she said, there will be no elections. ¶10. (SBU) Asha Hagi Elmi thanked the U.S. Government for its nwavering support and A/S Frazer's personal commitment to energizing the Djibouti peace process. The Djibouti process, she said is the "only symbol of hope for Somalia today." She echoed the sentiment of the other two leaders, stating, "The Somali crisis is purely a political crisis that has given birth to the humanitarian catastrophe and increasing security risks." Elmi asked for specific and practical advice from us on how to move forward. Questioned by A/S Frazer on the role of the charter in a new inclusive government, Elmi replied that the charter would stay in place. A joint administration was necessary to secure the transition, she said. -------------- Governance Structure, Timeframe and Support -------------- ¶11. (SBU) S/E Yates asked for more details about how the interim administration would function, specifically whether the ARS/TFG High Level Committee (HLC) within the Djibouti process would function as the interim government structure. Sharif said that while the concept is good, in practice this arrangement cannot serve the purpose of providing a framework for governance. Any structure would need to be within the Charter and while important, there is no provision for the HLC in the Charter. Sharif continued that the Somali problem is bigger than the HLC, and the HLC is not enough to inspire the confidence of the people. ¶12. (SBU) Sheikh Sharif said he saw the interim structure operating NAIROBI 00002580 003 OF 004 for three to four years to pave the way for Somalis to freely cast their votes. It would be created along the 4.5 formula for clan representation, and could be done in two weeks, Sharif said. He said that preliminary conversations with Somalia's neighbors about this concept, including Yemen and Saudi Arabia, have been positive. ¶13. (SBU) Sherif Hassan believed that the bulk of Somalia's MPs will support this idea of a unified interim governance structure. Thus far, parliament has already agreed in principle to enlargement. The ARS is prepared to rely on the 4.5 formula in expanding the parliament. "To advance the prospects for peace, Somalis are ready - we want parliament to be open to all Somalis." Hassan concluded. -------------- Influence on the Ground -------------- ¶14. (SBU) A/S Frazer asked Sheikh Sharif pointedly whether he has the ability to provide security on the ground, especially given divisions within the ARS and the continued al-Shabaab threat. Sharif replied, "I believe I can act against the lawlessness in the country - people are fed up with al-Shabaab and with Asmara." Somalis want to hear from those leading the Djibouti process and want to see measurable progress on peace, justice, and humanitarian assistance, he said. During the 2006 reign of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU),he said, 90 percent of the population supported their efforts. "Now, the challenges are greater but we can lead Somalia in restoring peace." ¶15. (SBU) Hassan continued by noting that there are only a handful of ARS Central Committee members on the ground in Asmara. These individuals are not there because of deeply held ideologies, but to support Eritrean interests and all Somalis know this, he said. On al-Shabaab, Hassan said, "People are ready to take up arms; nobody wants them." -------------- We Have Changed -------------- ¶16. (SBU) Sharif Hassan sought to counter the impression that the ICU was undemocratic. He said, "There is a change, we are willing to represent the rights of women, trust us." Hassan continued by using Elmi as an example of a women who has won numerous international awards for her work on securing women's rights in Somalia. Hassan said, "The two women [Elmi and Mohamed] who are here with us today were MPs and ministers and now they are part of the ARS leadership -- We are all interested in change," Hassan said. ¶17. (SBU) According to Hassan, the Ethiopians' stated intention to withdraw has attracted much support from the Somali people. Hassan stated categorically that the ARS harbors no animosity toward Ethiopia. "We will remain as brothers and sisters in the region - all of us will move toward securing the peace." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶18. (SBU) The ARS leadership shares our vision of the inextricable link between political progress and increased security and we believe they are committed to being part of a long-term political solution for Somalia. In the outcome of the IGAD Summit, however, the TFG remains intact and the ARS will not have the immediate opportunity to implement the sweeping reforms they want. While the ARS leadership in this meeting offered a vision of change for Somalia and within its own ranks, their presentation was short on detail. It is doubtful that adding another 275 members to an already ineffectual and combative parliamentary body will create a credible foundation for good governance in Somalia. Given the failure of the TFG to make any progress, there is little argument that Somalia's transitional institutions are broken. However, the ARS offered only general ideas on how to make progress on the political, security, and humanitarian fronts. Despite their assurances, it is unclear what influence the ARS leaders actually wield in the country. The two-week timeframe to stand up a new interim governance structure "to include all Somalis" is overly ambitious, especially given that an agreed selection process does not yet exist. However, the meeting demonstrated the improved relationship between the U.S and the moderates leading the ARS, and perhaps provides a fragile foundation on which to address the issues NAIROBI 00002580 004 OF 004 at the core of the Somali crisis. ¶19. (SBU) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this message. RANNEBERGER