SOMALIA - Deputy Prime Minister Questions TFG Future

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 002579 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - Deputy Prime Minister Questions TFG Future REF: A) Nairobi 2520 B) Nairobi 2380 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On the margins of the IGAD summit in Nairobi, A/S Frazer met with TFG Deputy Prime Minister Ahmed Abdisalam Adan. Abdisalam noted the fragility of the TFG and the ARS and the importance of strengthening both institutions and the Djibouti process that binds them. The DPM emphasized the hope of all Somalis for a change and their strong commitment to a peace process. He expressed concern with IGAD's apparent attempt to usurp the ongoing Djibouti process with a parallel initiative. Abdisalam also voiced his frustration with both President Yusuf and the Prime Minister, saying they have lost all credibility and that no progress can be made with them leading the TFG. He said the bombings in Hargeisa and Bossaso were a signal to discourage good governance and to change Somalia's focus to terrorist threats. Abdisalam told A/S Frazer that time is of the essence and the longer it takes for a shift in leadership of the TFG, the more difficult it will be to effect real progress. End Summary. -------------- IGAD - A Parallel Process? -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On October 29, Assistant Secretary for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer met with Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Information, Sports and Youth Ahmed Abdisalam Adan. Abdisalam, who entered government in January as one of the new cabinet representatives from outside parliament, has worked closely with Prime Minister Hussein on the reconciliation process, beginning in Mogadishu. The meeting took place shortly after the conclusion of the IGAD summit (Ref A) and Abdisalam raised several questions about the apparent new role for IGAD in Somalia's peace process. He expressed concern that IGAD appears to be launching a parallel track to the Djibouti Process at a critical juncture when Somalis are ready to support a common solution to achieve peace. ¶3. (SBU) Abdisalam thanked A/S Frazer for her strong support of the Djibouti process, even with the serious challenges to its implementation. He believes the international community should emphasize support for the process, rather than bolstering either the TFG or the ARS as institutions. Abdisalam noted his concern that the IGAD summit appeared to be an attempt to squeeze the UN Political Office for Somalia out of the process. The DPM was especially concerned by Article 16 of the communique stating "...the anchor of all efforts in relation to Somalia must be IGAD." Abdisalam said we should not allow the role of UN SRSG Ould-Abdallah to be minimized or for IGAD to open a parallel track that will send "mixed messages" to the political negotiations. He said most Somalis were against the IGAD meeting that seemed to usurp the existing Djibouti process. (Note: Abdisalam voiced similar apprehensions in a meeting with us prior to the IGAD Summit. See Ref B for a report of this discussion.) -------------- TFG Fragile with Discredited Leaders -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Abdisalam told A/S Frazer that with the signature of the two agreements in Djibouti on October 26 and with the deadlines outlined in the IGAD communique, the "tough job starts now." Unfortunately, he did not believe the existing TFG leadership was up to the job. Abdisalam said that communities in Merka, Beletweyn, and others across Somalia are lashing out against targeted assassinations and the terror that has gripped their neighborhoods, but that neither the TFG nor the ARS has the capacity to support them. He said bluntly, "The TFG cannot move forward with the current leadership." After the harsh criticism leveled against Yusuf by his regional colleagues during IGAD, Abdisalam said, "If I was Yusuf I would have resigned to allow the process to move forward." ¶5. (SBU) Abdisalam said any roadmap that is developed to implement the peace process will not go anywhere with the current TFG leadership. He asserted that it is a losing proposition for the ARS to join the TFG as is. The DPM opined that Yusuf sees the peace process as a clan issue, not a peace issue. "The President can be given a decent exit, as can the Prime Minister and the Speaker," he said. Abdisalam believed that the TFG's problems stemmed from the top, but they were compounded by corrupt figures such as Commissioner of Police Abdi Awale Qeybdid and Director of National Security Mohamed Warsame Farah "Darwish", who use the excuse of NAIROBI 00002579 002.2 OF 003 security to block any political progress. -------------- Competing Agendas -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Abdisalam confirmed that parliament is ready to force regime change and came to Nairobi for that sole purpose. The hot debate at the end of the first day of the IGAD summit set the stage for the impeachment vote the MPs had prepared by circulating a petition in Nairobi signed by the majority of its members. While the parliamentarians were hoping to force Yusuf out, Kenyan President Kibaki changed the agenda, abruptly ending the IGAD summit before they had a chance. After inviting all 275 parliamentarians to Nairobi, there was no role for them in the summit, the DPM said. He suggested that the resulting confusion was part of the Kenyan attempt to take a more prominent role in Somalia. ¶7. (SBU) Abdisalam commented that Kenya understands the least about the Somalia crisis and sees itself in competition with Djibouti, which has played a central constructive role in supporting the peace process. In response to A/S Frazer's question about the TFG's relationship with the Government of Kenya, Abdisalam replied, "We have no contact with them." He said the Somali-Kenyan politicians have not been involved in the political process. He noted that even the Chief of Police and the Deputy Speaker, two of the most prominent ethnic Somalis in the Kenyan government, are suspicious of the peace process. -------------- A Critical Juncture -------------- ¶8. (SBU) A/S Frazer agreed that Somalis have no confidence in their government. She encouraged Abdisalam to take the breathing space afforded by the IGAD's preemption of an immediate regime change to pull the TFG together and make it functional. Frazer also said that any change in the TFG should be sooner, rather than later to take advantage of the present momentum. A/S Frazer volunteered U.S. assistance to the TFG through the process. ¶9. (SBU) Abdisalam shared our concern that the time is short for any changes to be made. He said that if the ARS does not join them to create a broader institution, all momentum will be lost. "The more you extend the time, the more people will break off from the process," he predicted. The Deputy Prime Minister asserted that on the other hand, if ARS joins a new TFG, together they can move forward, broaden the base, and establish a unity government, open to all Somalis. But the TFG must do its part. Abdisalam concluded, "You cannot organize an institution that does not want to be organized." ¶10. (SBU) With another jab at the present administration, Abdisalam said, "The leaders must realize that it is not about them, it is about Somalia." The DPM warned that if he discovers that things will not change this time, he does not want to be part of the government. "It does not make sense to stay in conflict - I have done all I can do." -------------- Bombing Targets Peace Process -------------- ¶11. (SBU) Abdisalam said that the October 29 bombings in Hargeisa and Bossaso will open the eyes of all Somalis. "You cannot leave Mogadishu burning and think it will not affect you." He said the attacks were well-planned and coordinated, marking a "localization of the conflict." Abdisalam likened the bombers' tactics to those used in Iraq and Afghanistan -- striking deep within many communities to weaken the resolve of its residents and demonstrate a wide reach. He said the terrorist tactics used on October 29 were intended to destabilize the security situation and keep Ethiopia in Somalia. As long as Ethiopia remains, Abdisalam said, Somalis regard the crisis as a conflict with an outside power. He concluded the meeting by telling A/S Frazer, "The solution to the threat is good governance." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶12. (SBU) Abdisalam is regarded as one of Somalia's new generation of leaders, although he has not proved as effective within the TFG NAIROBI 00002579 003.2 OF 003 as many hoped. In recent meetings, he has evinced a level of confidence in the ongoing reconciliation and peace process, at times seemingly at odds with the realities on the ground. His total lack of confidence in Yusuf is not a surprise as Abdisalam himself is a lightening rod for Yusuf's criticism. However, Abdisalam's similar critique of the Prime Minister, who he said has lost all support in an effort to please the President, is telling. There is a short fuse for the TFG to change its leadership and strengthen its ranks to be part of an effective unity government; it appears the DPM doubts it can deliver. In this case, the TFG (and Somalia) may lose the commitment of one of its brightest leaders and hope for a new generation to usher in peace. ¶13. (U) Assistant Secretary Frazer has cleared this message. RANNEBERGER