SOMALIA: IGAD SUMMIT ISSUES TIMELINE IN EFFORT TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 NAIROBI 002520 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/E E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI SO ET SUBJECT: SOMALIA: IGAD SUMMIT ISSUES TIMELINE IN EFFORT TO ENERGIZE TFG REF: NAIROBI 2469 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Like day one (reftel),the October 29 closing session of the IGAD Extraordinary Summit on Somalia featured protracted, closed-door negotiations, and pointed criticism of the Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG). The Summit communique (para 9),established a timeline for the TFG, and an IGAD representative to monitor its implementation in an effort to energize the process as the TFG's mandate winds down. Although the speeches and the communique were a pointed rebuke to the TFG, TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf survived Ethiopian and TFG parliamentarian unhappiness (see septel on A/S Frazer's post-Summit conversation with Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles). Although it was hoped that the event would further the Djibouti Process, some passages in the communique suggest that IGAD was endeavoring to establish itself as a rival to the UN's Special Representative for Somalia (SRSG). End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Continued, closed-door discussions with TFG President Yusuf and the hammering out of a communique delayed planned speeches by President Kibaki, Prime Minister Meles, IGAD, AU, UN, and other representatives by more than two hours on the last day of the IGAD Extraordinary Summit, October 29. When the leaders finally convened, their speeches were openly critical of the TFG. In his opening remarks, Kenyan President Kibaki noted that the TFG "faces serious challenges," and urged it to "end the deadlock; compromise; work together." ¶3. (SBU) Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles was much blunter. The TFG was "paralyzed," he said, and a "failure in all areas." There was a "lack of harmony" among its leaders. In remarks at an IGAD dinner on October 28, Meles had termed the October 28 - 29 Summit a "last-ditch effort to reverse a rapidly deteriorating situation." Meles termed the October 26 Djibouti declaration of an intent to establish a unity government and cessation of hostilities agreement, however, a "major achievement," but cautioned that "much would depend on the TFI's readiness to grab the bull by the horns." ¶4. (SBU) Kibaki's and Meles's open expressions of dissatisfaction were seconded by many of the transitional parliamentarians present. Parliamentarians used their October 28 session to vent their unhappiness with the government, particularly President Abdullahi Yusuf. Speaker Sheikh Aden Mohamed Nur "Madobe" continued to be unrelenting on the subject of Yusuf in his meetings with IGAD representatives. The discussions with parliament became so heated, observers told us, that IGAD members decided to issue the final communique before lunch on the final day, in order to avoid a second, unpleasant session with the members of parliament, which was to have taken place in the afternoon. ¶5. (SBU) Those present at the session told us that President Yusuf was defiant in the face of Ethiopian pressure and the parliamentarians' dissatisfaction. Yusuf reportedly maintained that the October 26 declaration of a government of national unity nd cessation of hostilities agreement were of no consequence. He asked for support in establishing a well-equipped and armed militia to contain the growing instability in Somalia, and he insisted that the TFG's mandate should be extended, now, for another three years. Yusuf appeared to have boycotted the October 28 IGAD state dinner and he did not speak at the October 29 heads of state session. Prime Minister "Nur Adde," according to all accounts, played almost no role in the IGAD event, although he was present. Many speculated that he may have tired of the job, and was hoping to be replaced. ¶6. (SBU) The final communique (para 9),is evidence of IGAD's, and particularly Ethiopia's, frustration with the TFG. It takes note of the "profound paralysis" in Somalia and the "near hopelessness" there and "complete failure to establish institutions of governance only nine months before the end of the transitional period." In a slap at President Yusuf, it regrets the "lack of unity and unhelpful competition" among the leadership, which it terms the "principal factor that has allowed the deterioration of the security situation." Yusuf did sign the communique and some have noted that his signature indicates agreement with this sentiment. ¶7. (SBU) Finally, the communique charts an ambitious timeline in seven areas for the TFG. Among them: a new cabinet must be appointed by November 14, progress reports must be NAIROBI 00002520 002 OF 004 submitted every two months to the IGAD Council of Ministers, the IGAD Assembly will meet every six months to review progress, and a facilitator will monitor the TFG's progress in such areas as establishing a Benadir Administration and drafting a constitution. Most tellingly, paragraph sixteen names IGAD as the "anchor of all efforts in relation to Somalia." Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The communique registers Ethiopia's frustration with its neighbor, and it attempts to assign homework to its delinquent government, but it is unlikely that the additional pressure will improve the performance of the TFG. Continued serious personal differences among the leadership will not disappear, in spite of the blunt criticism leveled by IGAD members, and Yusuf's survival as President will only encourage him to remain uncooperative as the TFG enters its final ten months. In the meantime, it is unclear at this juncture how the UN's Special Representative Ould-Abdallah will function against the background of renewed assertiveness by IGAD. Communique Text -------------- ¶9. (U) Begin communique text: (Heading) IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development Declaration of the 13th Extra-Ordinary Session of the IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government Nairobi, Kenya, October 29th, 2008 The IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government held an Extraordinary Meeting in Nairobi on 29th October 2008 under the Chairmanship of H.E Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Current Chairman of IGAD to consider the political, security and humanitarian situation in Somalia. The Assembly was attended by H.E. Ismael Omar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti, H.E. Mwai Kibaki. President of the Republic of Kenya, H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda, H.E. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia, H.E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, 1st Vice President of the Republic of Sudan. Honorable Germain Niyoyankana, Minister of National Defense and Former Combatants, Republic of Burundi participated at the Meeting in Burundi's capacity as troop contributing country to AMISOM. The Assembly was preceded by the 29th Extraordinary Meeting of the IGAD Council of Ministers, held in Nairobi on 28th October 2008. The Assembly was briefed by H.E. Erastus Mwencha, Deputy Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E Ahmedou Ould Abdellah, Special Representative of the UN Secretary General to Somalia, and Senator Mario Rafaelli, Italian Government Special Envoy for Somalia, representing the Chair of IGAD Partners Forum (IPF). The Assembly also held intensive consultations with the Leadership of the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFIs) and Members of the Transitional Federal Parliament (TFP) of Somalia. After deliberating at length on the prevailing political and security situation in Somalia, the Assembly adopted and issuedthe following Declaration. We the Members of the IGAD Assembly, ¶1. Take note of the statements made by the representative of the African Union, the United Nations, and the IPF. ¶2. Take note also of the remarks and submissions made by the Leaderships of the TFIs and Members of the TFP of Somalia. ¶3. Express profound concern regarding the political paralysis in Somalia contributing to the continuing deterioration of the security situation in the country as well as to the near hopelessness of the existing situation with respect to achieving the objectives of the transition period as evidenced in the complete failure to establish institutions NAIROBI 00002520 003 OF 004 of governance only nine months before the end of the transitional period. ¶4. Regret the lack of unity and unhelpful competition among the leadership of the TFIs as their working at cross purposes has been the principal factor that has allowed the deterioration of the security situation in the country, and led to lack of progress in the national reconciliation effort. ¶5. Call upon the international community to support the strengthening of the TFIs through capacity building and provision of technical assistance. ¶6. Call further on the international community to provide the urgently needed humanitarian assistance to alleviate the suffering of thousands of the displaced Somali population. ¶7. Note that delays and prevarications of the international community in its response to repeated calls and appeals by IGAD, the African Union, and the United Nations to strengthen and provide the necessary support to AMISOM had a direct consequence and impact on the political as well as security developments in Somalia. ¶8. Note further the increased incidents of piracy along the Somali coastline and welcomes the United Nations Security Council resolutions 1816 and 1838 authorizing the use of force to combat the vice. ¶9. Commend the Governments of Uganda and Burundi for contributing troops to AMISOM and the Government of Ethiopia for deploying its troops to Somalia under bilateral arrangement with the TFG, and salutes the AMISOM and Ethiopia troops for their commitment to fulfill their tasks under difficult conditions. ¶10. Welcome the agreement signed in Djibouti on the 26th October 2008 between the TFG and the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) on the Implementation of cessation of armed confrontation. ¶11. Welcome further the agreement on the formation of a unity government of Somalia based on the principle of 4.5, and an inclusive Parliament. ¶12. Urge the TFG and the ARS to implement fully and in good faith the Agreement reached in Djibouti on 26th October 2008 and call upon the Members of TFP o endorse the same without any delay. ¶13. Decide that the TFIs shall implement the following as per the following timelines: i) Appoint a Cabinet on the basis of the previous resolution of Parliament of 11October 2008, within 15 days of the issuance of this Declaration. ii) Establish a Joint Security Committee (JSC) and its subcommittees as stipulated in the Djibouti Agreement that shall be operational effective 10November 2008 but not later than 25 November 2008. iii) Establish the Banadir administration as stipulated in the Addis Ababa Roadmap within 15 days of issuance of this Declaration. iv) Finalize the drafting of the Somali Constitution, enact electoral and parties law within 6 months of the issuance of this Declaration. v) The issue of the extension of the transitional period might be considered in accordance with the provisions of the Transitional Federal Charter (TFC) on the basis of the progress made on the ground. vi) Submit progress reports of the implementation (of the above decisions) every 2 months to the IGAD Council of Ministers meeting, which shall review the progress made. vii) IGAD Assembly of Heads of State and Government to meet every 6 months to review the progress made in the implementation of these decisions. ¶14. Decide to establish mechanism headed by a Facilitator to help monitor the implementation of the above decisions and report to the IGAD Council of Ministers and the Assembly of NAIROBI 00002520 004 OF 004 Heads of State and Government on the progress made. ¶15. Decide also that there must be a coordination mechanism among the IGAD states in the area of institutional and capacity building. ¶16. Decide further that the anchor of all the efforts in relation to Somalia must be IGAD. ¶17. Reiterate that in default of the above, the IGAD Assembly shall meet and review its options, as it will not be business as usual. ¶18. Urge the United Nations to take expeditious measures to fulfill its share of responsibilities as stipulated in the Djibouti Agreement signed on 19th August, 2008 and its modalities of Implementation as agreed upon by the parties, in particular the request to cover the financial needs of the 10,000 strong police force starting from 5th November 2008. ¶19. Recommend to the Parties and the Special Representative of the Secretary General of the United Nations for Somalia to be flexible in terms of modalities and timelines of implementation of the Djibouti Agreement(s) by the parties. ¶20. Thank the government and the people of Kenya for hosting the Extraordinary Assembly of Heads of State and Government. ¶21. Decide to remain seized of the matter. Done at Nairobi Kenya, on 29th day of October in the year 2008 (signed) H.E. Meles Zenawi, Prime Minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Current Chairman of IGAD H.E. Ismael Ornar Guelleh, President of the Republic of Djibouti H.E. Mwai Kibaki, President of the Republic of Kenya H.E. Abdullahi Yusuf, President of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia H.E. Salva Kiir Mayardit, 1sf Vice President of the Republic of Sudan H.E. Yoweri Kaguta Museveni, President of the Republic of Uganda End communique text. RANNEBERGER