SOMALIA - A POLITICAL STALEMATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001906 SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2018 TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID PINS SO SUBJECT: SOMALIA - A POLITICAL STALEMATE REF: A. NAIROBI 1895 ¶B. NAIROBI 1900 ¶C. NAIROBI 1885 Classified By: Political Officer Joseph F. Trimble, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Days after several ministers supporting President Abdulahi Yusuf resigned in protest from Prime Minister Nur Hassan Hussein's cabinet (reftels A and B),our contacts tell us the political fight between the Prime Minister and President Yusuf has evolved into a resentful, but less bellicose stalemate between the two sides. Those around Yusuf and the PM are encouraging them to talk to one another. The President's Intelligence Chief Mohamed Warsame Farah "Darwish," not known for his peacemaking, claims to be counseling dialogue, according to one of our contacts. The Hawiye Traditional and Unity Council (HTUC) is reportedly mobilizing Hawiye leaders in support of the Prime Minister's dismissal of Dheere who they see as a major impediment to peace within the TFG (reftel C). The HTUC also is encouraging the PM to mend his relationship with Yusuf in the interest of moving forward on the Djibouti Agreement. UN Special Representative for the Secretary General Ahmedou Ould-Abdullah told the Ambassador President Yusuf has calmed down. There is a sense among observers that, now that heads have cooled, there is an opportunity for detente. ¶2. (SBU) Both sides are still grappling with the political fallout. On August 6 the Prime Minister's office confirmed to us the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Justice Salim Aliyow Ibrow (Digil and Mirifle). This brings the total confirmed cabinet resignations to four. Another bone of contention, the status of Benaadir Governor and Mogadishu Mayor Mohammed Umar Habeb, aka Mohammed Dheere, remains unresolved. While Yusuf says Mohammed Dheere is still the governor, the Prime Minister has already named Dheere's replacement. ¶3. (SBU) Several possibly contentious issues lie ahead. Resigned Gender Development Minister Khadija Mohamud Diriye was a TFG delegate to the Djibouti Agreement's important High Level Committee; she'll have to be replaced, and President Yusuf and Prime Minister Hussein might use that window to re-ignite debate over the committee members. To date, the TFG has been unable to produce a list of the delegates that were to accompany the ARS on a mission to Europe and the United States to "sell" the agreement. Likewise, if Mohammed Dheere's situation is not resolved carefully, there could be another flare-up. RANNEBERGER