KENYA TAKES STRONG STAND AGAINST ZIMBABWE

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001659

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (CLASS MARKING PARA 7)

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/12/2018
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KE ZI
SUBJECT: KENYA TAKES STRONG STAND AGAINST ZIMBABWE

Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger, reasons 1.4 (b,d).

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Summary
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1. (U) In early June during a visit to South Africa, Prime
Minister Raila Odinga denounced the deteriorating political
situation in Zimbabwe after the March 29 elections. He was
the first Kenyan official to do so publicly. He continued to
speak out in public events and meetings with senior USG
officials during a mid-June visit to Washington, DC. Foreign
Minister Moses Wetangula initially sought to distance the
government from Odinga's statement, but the Ambassador
weighed in to make clear that we regarded Odinga's statements
as teh official position of the Kenyan government. Wetangula
then followed up with a statement supporting the PM's
comments. Now both Odinga and Wetangula have taken a strong
stand against Mugabe -- one that stands in stark contrast to
the less than forthright consensus statement adopted at the
recent African Union summit in Cairo. Most recently, the
Government of Kenya has publicly refused to recognize the
Mugabe regime as legitimate. End Summary.

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Prime Minister Speaks Out
(Repeatedly) Against Mugabe
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2. (U) Prime Minister Raila Odinga was the first Government
of Kenya official to denounce the deteriorating political
climate in the aftermath of Zimbabwe's March 29 elections.
During an early June visit to South Africa, Odinga called the
situation in Zimbabwe "a big embarrassment for the whole
continent." "We cannot condone what is going on there," he
continued.


3. (C) During his trip to Washington, DC in mid-June, Odinga
continued to speak out: in a June 17 forum sponsored by the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Odinga
derided other African leaders for remaining silent "when
disaster is looming in Zimbabwe." The next day in a meeting
with the Secretary (septel),Odinga offered to reach out to
other African leaders on the issue. In particular, Odinga
said he would ask Libyan President Muammar Qaddafi to
leverage Libya's current role in the UN Security Council to
be more helpful on Zimbabwe issues.

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Foreign Minister Follows... Eventually
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4. (C) There was no official reaction from Nairobi
immediately after Odinga's comments. On the contrary, behind
the scenes we heard that government officials were trying to
find a way to distance the government from Odinga's
statements. Immediately after Odinga's return from the U.S.,
the Ambassador wrote to Wetangula to state that the U.S.
welcomed Odinga's strong statements on Zimbabwe and regarded
them as the Kenyan government's position.


5. (U) On June 19, Wetangula issued an official statement
that supported Odinga's position and called on Mugabe to
"respect the wishes of the people of Zimbabwe" by
establishing an environment amenable to a free and fair
runoff election.


6. (U) Over the weekend of 4-5 July, Wetangula made his most
forward-leaning statement yet: that the Government of Kenya
will not recognize the Mugabe regime as legitimate.

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Where Does Kenya Stand on the Way Forward?
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7. (C) Odinga told visiting Congressmen last week that he and
President Kibaki had discussed the Zimbabwe issue and agreed
on the need to take a firm position. He even mentioned that
he and the President had mooted the possibility of Kenya
playing a mediating role -- Kibaki drawing on his lines to
Mugabe and Odinga drawing on his connections with Tsvangarai.
RANNEBERGER