KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR PM ODINGA'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NAIROBI 001461

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR S, D, F, P, AF A/S FRAZER, AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2018
TAGS: PREL EAID KE US
SUBJECT: KENYA: SCENESETTER FOR PM ODINGA'S VISIT TO
WASHINGTON

REF: NAIROBI 1452

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Pamela Slutz, Reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary. The June 16-19 visit of Prime Minister Odinga
will highlight U.S. support for the coalition government,
bolster the authority of the office of the Prime Minister to
supervise and coordinate the government, and provide us an
important opportunity to press for results on institutional
reform. Kenyans across the political, social, and ethnic
spectrum continue to express their deep appreciation of the
decisive role the U.S. played in ending the political crisis
earlier this year. Odinga will come with a positive message
of his and President Kibaki's commitment to make the
coalition work. He sees the meetings with the Secretary, A/S
Frazer and NSA Hadley as centerpieces of the visit, but will
have a heavy schedule on the Hill, with the non-governmental
community, and with the private sector. Constituted barely
two months ago, the coalition government remains fragile,
with substantial noise coming from people on both sides who
do not share Odinga's and Kibaki's commitment. Although the
coalition government needs to move quickly on constitutional,
electoral, and land reform, it faces at the same time
enormous challenges to its solidarity and cohesiveness. The
negative impact on the Kenyan economy from the crisis is
exacerbated by upward-spiraling petroleum prices and the
worldwide shortage of staple foodstuffs, including maize and
wheat. Para 7 delineates priorities for the coalition
government. Deliverables for the Odinga visit include
signing an open skies agreement, a Peace Corps event
highlighting the return of volunteers to Kenya, and possible
announcement of the USD 75 million FY09 supplemental request
to Congress. End summary.


2. (C) Prime Minister Raila Odinga views the U.S. as having
played the decisive role in bringing about the coalition
government, and greatly appreciates our invitation to visit.
As part of our efforts during the crisis to press him to
compromise, we told him that we would invite him to visit in
order to bolster the authority and role of the Prime
Minister, and that we would provide some measure of technical
assistance to the office of the Prime Minister, which we have
offered through USAID. In order for the coalition government
to succeed, the constitutional authority and role of the
Prime Minister to "supervise and coordinate" the government
ministries must be carried out effectively. The June 16-19
visit provides a timely opportunity to highlight our support
for the coalition government, to bolster the office and role
of the Prime Minister, and to make clear the need to achieve
results on institutional reforms in order to address the
underlying grievances that fueled the post-election violence
and crisis. President Kibaki, who also sees the U.S. as
having played the decisive role in resolving the crisis, told
me that he welcomes Odinga's visit as a means to reinforce
the U.S.-Kenya partnership.


3. (C) The coalition government, which has been in office
barely two months, is fragile. The government is plagued by
rivalries among ministers from Kibaki's Party of National
Unity (PNU) and Odinga's Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).
There is a high volume of noise from players on both sides on
such issues as whether or not those who allegedly committed
violence during the crisis should be given amnesty, and
whether there should be a new opposition to hold the
coalition government accountable. Non-governmental groups
and other observers are criticizing the cost of the 42-member
government, and some are sounding alarm bells that )- in the
absence of an opposition -) the coalition government has no
incentive to fight corruption. Unfortunately, there are
government ministers -- on both sides of the coalition --
tainted by allegations of corruption.


4. (C) It is important to filter out the noise in order to
listen to what Kibaki and Odinga themselves ae saying.
Since the coalition government has assumed office, I have met
several times one-on-one with each of them. They have been
extraordinarily complimentary of one another. Kibaki praised
the way in which Odinga is seeking to play his role to
coordinate and supervise the government. Odinga told me he
is pleased that Kibaki has told government ministers they
must be responsive to the Prime Minister. The antics of some
members of their teams notwithstanding, Kibaki and Odinga
have avoided quarreling in public. On amnesty, for example,
both have highlighted the need to respect the rule of law.
Odinga pointed out that giving blanket amnesty up front
presumes that everyone detained is guilty, and Kibaki has not
ruled out amnesty once cases have been moved through the
judicial process. The two men agree that institutional

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reform is the top priority. Both, of course, see no role for
any formal opposition, although a caucus of like-minded
parliamentarians to keep the government honest is a
possibility. The coalition partners (and we) have drawn the
line: now is not the time to constitute a new opposition
party that would conceivably bring down the coalition.


5. (C) I believe that Kibaki and Odinga share the political
will to make the coalition government succeed. Kibaki wants
to leave a legacy and has told me he needs Odinga in order to
move forward with his agenda for the nation. Odinga has told
me that he needs Kibaki to achieve results and to gain
credibility for his possible run for the presidency in 2012.
This political will to work together is possible because
their short- and medium-term agendas for the nation are
essentially the same: institutional reform, expansion of
social services, and economic growth through the private
sector. Two to three years down the line, the coalition
could well break up as serious maneuvering begins for 2012.
We therefore need to keep strong pressure on Kibaki and
Odinga to get results over the next 12-24 months.
Maintaining the momentum of the coalition political accord is
essential.


6. (C) That said, the coalition government faces enormous
challenges. If these challenges are not managed effectively,
the nation could face new instability fueled by economic
pressures on ordinary Kenyans. If that were to occur, it
would probably be focused more along class and social lines,
than ethnic lines. The severe economic setback resulting from
the crisis will be exacerbated in the coming months by rising
petroleum prices and the worldwide shortage of staple
foodstuffs, including maize, the staple of the Kenyan diet.
The government and the entire country have a great deal of
work to do to achieve genuine reconciliation to heal the
wounds from the worst crisis in Kenya's modern history.
Nearly 150,000 internally displaced persons remain in camps
either unable or unwilling (or both) to return to their
homes/residences/farms. Ethnic identification with
"ancestral" lands and fundamental disagreement over how to
allocate land nation-wide continue to exacerbate tensions.
After several repetitions of such land- and ethnic-based
violence (1992, 1997, 2002),many of those displaced are
concerned that no amount of increased police presence will
provide long-term security in the absence of land reform,
social and economic equity, and community-level
reconciliation. As reftel reports, the outcomes of the five
by-elections held June 11 broke largely along ethnic lines.


7. (C) Against this backdrop, we should focus the coalition
government's attention on six main priorities.

-- First, deliver on promised institutional reforms. While
it may not be productive to set absolute deadlines or
benchmarks, there must be significant progress on
constitutional reform within the next 12 months. Land reform
must also be addressed, although this enormously complex
problem will take longer to resolve. We understand that the
two sides are already working on the draft of a new
constitution.

-- Second, the commissions that have been established to
investigate electoral abuses and recommend changes; to probe
the post-election violence; and to advance truth, justice,
and reconciliation pursuant to the political accord must work
effectively and yield actionable results. Equally important,
the recommendations should be implemented. (Note: Of the
three commissions, the work of the Kriegler Commission is the
most advanced; its report on the conduct of the December 27,
2007 election and recommendations for electoral reform should
be ready by September.)

-- Third, precisely because the coalition government is a
unified political effort, the coalition government must be
extra zealous to maintain full transparency and
accountability in its actions in order to maintain
credibility with the Kenyan people. We must make clear that
we are watching closely the government's efforts to combat
corruption. In that sense, there can be no "business as
usual." The refrain often heard from Kenyans is: "we want
unity, but unity with a purpose, and with truth and justice."

-- Fourth, steps must be taken to address urgent economic
problems. The government has announced removal of import
duties on maize and has reduced the tariff on wheat imports.
The coalition government must also take steps to control
inflation, which is as high as 30 percent in some areas due
in large measure to the disruption to transportation and to

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distribution of commodities during the crisis. It is
particularly important that the coalition government attract
more foreign investment and bring tourism quickly back to the
record levels Kenya was seeing before the crisis. Odinga
will be meeting with the private sector during his visit. A
letter from me has gone to 60,000 U.S. tour operators and
businesses encouraging them to consider returning to and
investing in Kenya.

-- Fifth, Kibaki and Odinga must lead the way to promote
genuine national reconciliation. As part of this process,
internally displaced persons must be voluntarily returned to
their homes (to their farms and residences ) not their
"ancestral" homelands) as soon as community-level
reconciliation efforts have paved the way for this. We have
already provided USD 15 million for humanitarian assistance
to IDPs and are also providing assistance to the
reconciliation effort.

-- Sixth, the coalition government must work more closely
than ever with its international partners/donors. Kenya
wants to hold a Kenya-donor community consultative group
meeting in the next two months; we and our donor colleagues
are generally agreed this should go ahead, provided it is
informal and not a pledging conference. There may also be a
complementary business promotion event. Odinga is planning a
business promotion tour to the UK in July and to the U.S. in
September.


8. (C) The outpouring of appreciation to us for playing a
decisive role to end the crisis continues from Kenyans across
the political, social, and ethnic spectrum. The way that
people on the street are saying it, and the way we are
hearing it from a constant stream of e-mails and letters is:
"thank you (U.S. Government and American people) for saving
our nation." There are, therefore, high expectations for
Odinga's visit, though we have sought to paint a realistic
picture. The Kenyan people generally recognize that the U.S.
and Kenya already share a huge partnership. We have widely
publicized the additional USD 25 million (promised by the
Secretary during her visit) following the political accord.


9. (C) There are, however, three "deliverables" that can
enhance Odinga's visit. First, an "Open Skies" (bilateral
aviation) agreement will be signed. Second, there will be a
Peace Corps event highlighting the resumption of the program
and return of volunteers to Kenya (which began in early
June). Third, we should highlight the USD 75 million FY09
supplemental request to Congress for Kenya.


10. (C) The most important result of the visit will be to
show the continuing strong commitment of the United States to
help the coalition government succeed and achieve results for
the benefit of all Kenyans. Odinga recognizes this and will
come with a positive message. He sees the meetings with the
Secretary, A/S Frazer, and National Security Advisor Hadley
as centerpieces of his visit. But his well-rounded schedule
includes opportunities for him to carry this message to other
executive branch agencies, the Congress, non-governmental
groups (to include academia and think tanks),the private
sector, and the World Bank and IMF.
SLUTZ