PM ODINGA RECEIVES HERO'S WELCOME IN HOMECOMING - BUT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 NAIROBI 001320 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM KE SUBJECT: PM ODINGA RECEIVES HERO'S WELCOME IN HOMECOMING - BUT SUPPORTERS VOICE DOUBTS ABOUT GRAND COALITION -------------- Summary: -------------- ¶1. Prime Minister Raila Odinga received a hero's welcome from a crowd of over 300,000 at a home coming in his native Nyanza province. American flags were spotted amidst the excited crowd. He had a difficult time convincing his supporters that his Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party was an equal partner in the new government, however. While Raila urged his supporters to forgive past injustices and move on, they in turn implored him to settle for nothing less than the presidency, as the tribes of western Kenya had yet to reach "The Promised Land" of unfettered national rule. The ODM and the Party of National Unity (PNU) will need to work harder to ensure that Kenya's political future cannot rely on a "winner- takes-all system". End summary. -------------- Welcome Home: Hero, Leader and Brave Son -------------- ¶2. On May 10, more than 300,000 Kenyans congregated at the Kisumu Municipal Stadium to welcome their native son who arrived in a Kenya Air Force plane (previously preserved for the exclusive use of the President of Kenya). Jubilant residents lined up on the streets to witness the VIP convoy led by an elaborate police escort to a meeting arranged at the Tom Mboya Labor College, where the Prime Minister was expected to have a town hall meeting with local business, civic, grassroots party and religious leadership. This event did not fully materialize apart from the hurried introductions, because of the impatience of the huge gathering awaiting Raila at the stadium. ¶3. On May 11, Raila attended a memorial service for his father, Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, considered the doyen of opposition politics in Kenya, at the family home in Nyamira, about 50 miles west of Kisumu. (Note: Raila's older brother, Bondo MP Oburu Odinga, has inherited the family homestead. End note.) Later in the day, another huge rally was held at the neighboring Bondo Teachers' Training Centre where religious and tribal elders from the ethnic Luo, the Kalenjin, Kisii, Maasai, and Luyia communities attended. Civic and parliamentary representatives, a good number of whom are now in the coalition cabinet, were introduced to the crowd. -------------- Raila Defends Grand Coalition -------------- ¶4. At the Kisumu rally, Raila explained to his supporters that he ;entered into a coalition agreement with President Kibaki's PNU to avert the destruction of the country. Telling his audience that it is better to live to fight another day, Raila discouraged ODM MPs seeking to form an opposition, saying that would weaken his position in the coalition. Raila promised that the new coalition government would deliver on constitutional and economic reform. He explained that a number of ODM-led ministries (Roads, Health, Water, Communication, Industrialization) would be critical in bringing development to traditionally neglected regions. ¶5. In a public gesture of inter-ethnic cooperation Raila officiated at the launch of Equity Bank branch office at Bondo. The bank is expected to dispense credit to empower impoverished and neglected women and youth groups in the area, due to their association with what successive governments have considered to be an "opposition zone". (Note: This bank is owned by prominent ethnic Kikuyu businessmen. This is significant given the mistrust between Raila's ethnic Luo and Kibaki's ethnic Kikuyu communities. End Note.) ¶6. Other leaders reinforced Odinga's line that the power-sharing deal is real, reform will happen, but hard work lies ahead. Lands Minister James Orengo noted that Raila now has real power, noting that the Kenya police (notorious for arbitrarily arresting him on numerous occasions),were now serving and saluting Raila and according him VIP treatment. Agriculture Minister William Ruto acknowledged to the restive crowd that the prices of food commodity prices were high requested one year to sort the mess out. When Ruto's appeal for patience fell flat, he retreated to defensive rhetoric, demanding the police release from custody the suspects who were arrested for allegedly causing death and violence in the post-election period. Ruto argued that if it was not for the gallant efforts of the arrested youth, ODM could not be boasting of power sharing now. Other speakers at the event included several cabinet NAIROBI 00001320 002 OF 002 ministers. National Assembly Speaker Peter Marende who avoided hot political issues, promised the speedy enactment of a new constitution, as promised by ODM in the run up to the 2007 Election. -------------- Other Leaders Play To Crowd's Fears -------------- ¶7. Still the prevailing mood of the weekend was one of mistrust, and other ODM leaders voiced their resentment over the coalition agreement. Elizabeth Ongoro, a Luo MP from Nairobi, described PNU-ODM power sharing deal using a Luo parable of a snake entering a milk gourd just as the mother is preparing to feed the milk to her children. Breaking the container, she said, would waste badly needed food. Another MP described the arrangement as being forced to share a goat dinner with the thief who stole it. (Note: The theme of the perceived PNU theft of the election recurred through the weekend. End Note.) -------------- Kudos To USA and Kofi Annan; Two Thumbs Down For Uganda -------------- ¶8. At Bondo, Raila's birth place, support for the U.S. role in the recent election crisis was on display literally. At the dais were three five-foot portraits of Kofi Annan, President George Bush and Odinga, a tribute that POL FSN was told was to honor the unforgettable support the United States Embassy and Kofi Annan gave to Raila and the reconciliation process. ¶9. The role of other outside players, however, was not viewed as favorably. The Bondo crowd cut short Tanzanian Minister Magufuli's speech calling for strengthening of the East African Federation when he suggested greater cooperation with Uganda. (Note: Ugandan President Museveni is viewed with mistrust and suspicion by ODM supporters, particularly after his warm welcome of Kibaki's victory at the height of the post election crisis. Septel. End Note.) -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. Raila's home coming showed that he enjoys great popularity, but many Western Kenyans still harbor anger over the disputed election and place little faith in the prospects of a successful coalition government. The notable exception to this sentiment appears to lie with the (predominantly South Asian),business community that has a large financial stake in Kisumu and its environs. Rebuilding Western Kenya's economy will require good relations with the coalition government, and powerful businessmen were visibly networking with government officials all the weekend. ¶11. To win over ODM grassroots supporters, however, Raila and his PNU coalition partners will have to prove ODM fear mongers wrong by demonstrating that the power sharing arrangement will bring positive change for ordinary Kenyans.