Somalia - Violence Spikes in Mogadishu

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 001070

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2018
TAGS: PGOV PREL SO
SUBJECT: Somalia - Violence Spikes in Mogadishu

Classified by Ambassador Ranneberger for reasons 1.4 (b,d)

REF: Nairobi 1029


1. (C) SUMMARY. Between April 19 to 21, there was a spike in
violence in Mogadishu with armed confrontation between forces allied
with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and armed
anti-government elements. The alliances of the anti-government
militia remain unclear. Reports indicate that at least 80 persons
were killed and over 100 persons injured. While the majority of
casualties appear to be civilians, unconfirmed reports also indicate
that several TFG and Ethiopian troops were killed as well as
al-Shabaab commanders. The TFG claims that it defeated its
adversaries, but the heavy-handed tactics of the TFG/ENDF may thwart
progress towards reconciliation and direct talks with the opposition.
The scale of this fighting is higher than it has been in recent
months and may indicate that violent extremists are seeking to
exploit perceived weaknesses in the TFG. End Summary.

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Heavy Casualties in Recent Fighting
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2. (C) The recent spate of violence in Mogadishu began on April 17
when anti-government elements attacked a TFG base on a key road in an
attempt to interrupt TFG movement. On April 19,we understand that
the TFG began a tactical operation intended to underscore TFG control
of the area. In tanks and on foot, ENDF forces reportedly began
searches of the surrounding residential area for "terrorists" who
were using the neighborhood as a safe haven. Anti-government
elements were prepared for the incursion by the TFG/ENDF forces and
launched their own attack. In response, Ethiopia used overwhelming
force and heavily shelled the neighborhood from which the attack was
launched. The fighting continued through April 20 and 21, but
subsided the evening of April 21.


3. (C) Unconfirmed reports indicate that at least 85 persons were
killed and over 100 injured, the majority of whom were civilians.
Our Mogadishu-based contacts have confirmed that three prominent
clerics affiliated with the Tabliiq group were killed in a mosque
frequented by members of this sect. Our contacts were unable to tell
us the exact scale or location of the violence, because reportedly it
was too dangerous to go outside. While some suggest that these
numbers may be inflated, it is clear that heavy casualties were
registered on all sides. We understand that five Ethiopian soldiers
were killed and the TFG has told us that at least six al-Shabaab
commanders were also killed and several technical vehicles recovered.
Both the TFG and the anti-government elements are claiming victory.

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Armed Militia Alliances Unclear
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4. (C) It is difficult to say who is leading these attacks -- some
reports attribute the strikes to al-Shabaab while others report that
militias associated with the former Islamic Courts are behind the
recent violence. It is likely that the recent strike is being
launched by sub-clan militia that may have certain alliances with
both entities. The nature of the attacks is similar to the
guerrilla-style tactics that have characterized operations outside
the capital where armed elements briefly occupy a town. Outside of
Mogadishu, the anti-government forces seem to be variously associated
with al-Shabaab, the former Council of Islamic Courts, and
independent sub-clan militias (reftel).


5. (C) There are indications that certain anti-government elements
are trying to take advantage of the fact that Yusuf is out of the
country to challenge TFG control in Mogadishu. Others suggest that
rumors of Ethiopian withdrawal and a smaller presence of ENDF forces
in the city center have also provided opportunities for militias to
assert their relative strength. The scale of the fighting is greater
than it has been in recent months and is reminiscent of daily clashes
in the early part of 2007 between ENDF soldiers and anti-government
elements.

RANNEBERGER