MORE PESSIMISM FROM OMANI FM ON UPCOMING ARAB

C O N F I D E N T I A L MUSCAT 000223

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2018
TAGS: PREL MU
SUBJECT: MORE PESSIMISM FROM OMANI FM ON UPCOMING ARAB
LEAGUE SUMMIT, LEBANON, PEACE PROCESS

REF: A. MUSCAT 180


B. CAIRO 466 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Ambassador Gary A. Grappo per 1.4 (B and D).


1. (C) Summary: Omani Minister Responsible for Foreign
Affairs Yusef bin Alawi reiterated his previous pessimistic
forecast (ref A) for next week's Arab League (AL) Summit in
Damascus. Prospects for positive development on Lebanon and
Israel-Palestine were "very modest," although bin Alawi
intimated that a Qatari initiative on Lebanon might attract
interest. Meeting with the Ambassador March 19, Bin Alawi
also reviewed recent meetings he had had in Damascus with the
Syrian, Qatari and Iranian foreign ministers and with Syrian
President Bashar al Assad. End Summary.


2. (C) On the peace process, bin Alawi had little to say
beyond comments made to NEA Assistant Secretary Welch in
Cairo on March 6 (ref B). "I've been doing this longer than
any of you and I see nothing at the moment that is
encouraging," pronounced bin Alawi. Since Annapolis, he
said, the Israelis have "walked back," Mahmoud Abbas'
standing has been further diminished, the Arab League has
shown neither the clout nor the initiative to affect the
problem, and Palestinians continue to confront scarcity and
hopelessness. While not turning its back on the Annapolis
process, Oman is discouraged, said bin Alawi. "We've seen
this before."


3. (C) On Lebanon, bin Alawi said "no one but Michel Aoun"
can break the logjam in Beirut. In his view, Aoun is
determined to stall and wait the process out in his
unflinching pursuit of the Lebanese presidency. Amal and
Hezballah do not care for the current situation, said bin
Alawi, but neither can afford to alienate him. Moreover, the
Syrians told bin Alawi they were powerless to affect the
situation, although he was not entirely convinced. Bin Alawi
voiced some hope in an unspecified Qatari effort to assemble
a proposal for consideration in Damascus.


4. (C) After the AL fomins conference in Cairo, bin Alawi
traveled to Damascus on the invitation of Qatari FM Hamed bin
Jassim to meet with him and their Syrian and Iranian
counterparts to discuss Lebanon. However, said bin Alawi,
they could not agree on a way forward and they left
empty-handed. Later, he was invited to call on President
Bashar and had an extended discussion with the Syrian on
Lebanon. Rather then discuss the immediate problem, bin
Alawi said he urged Bashar to take a "longer view" of the
relationship that Syria and Lebanon would have to have. He
urged Bashar to consider opening an embassy in Beirut and
begin discussions on fixing borders. He also reportedly
encouraged the Syrian to build strong economic ties with its
neighbor, i.e., make economic interests the "custodian of the
new relationship." He used the examples of the U.S. and
China and of the UAE and Iran as countries that used trade
and investment to forge constructive relationships in spite
of significant political differences. He said Bashar
appeared to be interested and even acknowledged the validity
of the Omani argument.


5. (C) Comment: Relaxed and in apparent good cheer after
two weeks on the road, Bin Alawi seemed resigned to the
region's problems. He actually apologized for having spoken
so bluntly to A/S Welch in Cairo but quickly added Oman's
trademark justification, "We believe in speaking honestly
with our friends." He gave the distinct impression that Oman
will be going through the motions in Damascus next week.
GRAPPO