ARMS CONTROL PANEL IGNORES REAL ISSUES AT MUNICH SECURITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MUNICH 000053 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR EUR/AGS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PARM NATO GM MARR SUBJECT: ARMS CONTROL PANEL IGNORES REAL ISSUES AT MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE REF: a) MUNICH 52 b) MUNICH 17 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The 44th annual Munich Conference on Security Policy, with this year's theme "The World in Disarray - Shifting Powers - Lack of Strategies?" took place February 8-10, 2008 at the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich, Germany (see reftels). The second panel on February 9, "From Cooperation to Confrontation? The Future of Arms Control" included speeches from German FM Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Senator Joseph Lieberman, IAEA DG Mohamed ElBaradei, and Kenneth Roth of Human Rights Watch. While Steinmeier and ElBaradei pressed their arms control agenda, Senator Lieberman noted that the unique threats emanating from Iran merited a "uniquely powerful response." Interestingly, no questioners asked for a greater explanation. Unfortunately, ElBaradei barely mentioned Iran during his speech. End Summary. FM Steinmeier pushes arms control agenda -------------- ¶2. (SBU) FM Steinmeier lamented the lack of leadership by the U.S. and other nuclear powers in urging arms control and disarmament. He called for additional confidence building measures to improve the global system of inspections and controls, and claimed that it was up to the West, and particularly the nuclear states, to demonstrate goodwill rather than only military power when pushing for a freer, more peaceful, and more just world. Steinmeier fears a new global nuclear arms race and urged the Euro-Atlantic community, especially NATO, to come together to push an arms control agenda for the 21st century. ¶3. (SBU) Steinmeier focused on the threat emanating from Iran, stating that despite the NIE Germany remains convinced that the danger from Iran is real and requires unified action, but did not accuse Iran of being the premier example of why the NPT is currently at risk. Similarly, while expressing deep concerns over the current state of the CFE Treaty he, remarkably, did not once urge the Russian Federation to end its suspension of the treaty. Playing further into the hands of Russian apologists, Steinmeier then switched immediately to discussing missile defense, calling for additional dialogue (despite the fact that such consultations are ongoing). Lieberman focuses on Iran -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Senator Lieberman focused his comments on Iran's nuclear ambitions. He urged the audience to read the full published conclusions of the NIE and noted that, despite the NIE's assessment that Iran halted its covert work on bomb design in 2003 - perhaps as a result of the Iraq invasion - Iran continues its work on enrichment. He praised Secretary Rice's offer to meet Iran "anytime and anywhere" provided Iran suspend "even only for the duration of the meeting" its enrichment efforts. Lieberman then thanked the efforts of Great Britain, France and Germany in keeping the momentum up and working toward a third UNSC resolution and urged the expansion of additional EU sanctions. Without mentioning Germany by name, Lieberman noted that "the power to prevent war with Iran lies disproportionately with those who have the greatest economic leverage over Iran." ¶5. (SBU) In light of Iran's deceptions and the lack of real progress in negotiating with the Iranian government, Lieberman urged additional efforts. Given the "unique terrible destructive power of nuclear weapons, we should take uniquely powerful precautions to prevent their acquisition by any regime whose leaders have openly called for the destruction of another state." Interestingly, during the question and answer period, none among the attendees asked for a further explanation of the Senator's specific thoughts on what constitutes "uniquely powerful" measures to counter Iran. ElBaradei chides nuclear powers, says little about Iran -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Immediately following Senator Lieberman's speech, IAEA Director General Mohammed ElBaradei spoke and, remarkably, only briefly touched upon the issue of the Iranian nuclear program toward MUNICH 00000053 002 OF 003 the end of his speech. Furthermore, he did not even mention Senator Lieberman's exposition of the threat from Iran, choosing instead to endorse the recent Wall Street Journal article by Nunn, Perry, Shultz, and Kissinger, and advocating a global security structure that is not based on nuclear weapons. He urged the nuclear "haves" to demonstrate renewed commitment to the eventual abolition of all nuclear weapons, arguing that without such a commitment, non-proliferation was "not sustainable." ElBaradei spoke about the trafficking of nuclear materials, adding his fear that most of the nuclear materials recovered were never reported stolen. Continuing his random stroll through the realm of arms control, ElBaradei next underlined that the CTBT is the "jewel in the crown" of non-proliferation. ¶7. (SBU) ElBaradei then turned his sites on missile defense, criticizing the reliance on "shields instead of abolition," "hardware instead of software," and "hard power instead of soft power." He recommended empowering the UN and the UNSC, but provided no guidance or vision on how that would work. When he finally did mention Iran, ElBaradei made distinctions between the past, the present and the future. He said that Iran has not been transparent about its past and that there is good progress in determining "whether" Iran actually had a weaponization program. He reported that Iran is cooperating well on current issues related to the work plan, but added that questions about the future must still be addressed, mainly the suspension of the enrichment program, direct negotiations and regional security issues must be addressed. Support for U.S.-India nuclear deal -------------- ¶8. (U) ElBaradei sounded a more positive note when responding to a question by German Bundestag member Uta Zapf (SPD) and Werner Hoyer (FDP) about the effect of the U.S.-India Nuclear Deal on the nonproliferation regime. ElBaradei argued that the deal will bring India closer to the NPT framework - calling it a "win-win." He added that it is unrealistic to expect India to join the NPT "even in 100 years" and noted that India has an excellent record on nonproliferation matters, despite the fact that it has not signed the treaty. He also underscored that India, with some 650 million people living with unmet energy needs, has a desperate need for reliable energy development. Human Rights Watch pushes for cluster munitions ban -------------- -------------- ¶9. (U) The final, highly technical speech by Human Rights Watch Executive Director Kenneth Roth focused on need to ban the use of cluster munitions and on the so-called "Oslo Process," which aims to reach agreement "by year's end" to do just that. He noted similarities between the effort to ban cluster munitions and the similar effort to ban anti-personnel land mines (the so-called Ottawa Agreement). While recognizing CM have "limited military utility," Roth said that the use of CM kills an unacceptably large number of civilians, even months after the conflict has passed. Roth argued that only a total ban through Oslo -- rather than a "regulating" agreement through the Convention on Conventional Weapons -- will make the use of these weapons during conflicts as morally reprehensible as the use of land mines. ¶10. (U) One interesting note, Roth called for the creation of a "hearts and minds fund" to compensate -- without accepting any legal responsibility -- those innocent civilians negatively affected by war or conflict. He called on the EU to consider creating such a fund whereby the families of victims would receive assistance, financial or otherwise, should a military attack result in the innocent loss of life. While there were no official interventions on this idea, corridor conversation following this panel took up this notion. ¶11. (U) For more information on the 44th Conference and past conferences, visit: "http://www.securityconference.de" and "http://munich.usconsulate.gov." ¶12. (U) This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. ¶13. (U) Previous reporting from Munich is available on our SIPRNET Website at www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/munich/. MUNICH 00000053 003 OF 003 NELSON