GERMANY/MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Scene Setter for the

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUNICH 000384 C O R R E C T E D C O P Y (PARAGRAPH NUMBERING) SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT PLEASE PASS SENATOR MCCAIN AND SENATOR LIEBERMAN OSD POLICY FOR RDOTSON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: TAGS ZL, GM SUBJECT: GERMANY/MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE: Scene Setter for the Munich Security Conference, February 6 - 8, 2009 (CORRECTED COPY) MUNICH 00000384 001.2 OF 004 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) The annual Munich Security Conference, the "Davos of the security world," uniquely brings official national delegations together with private opinion makers and experts in an informal setting conducive to lively debate and dialogue. The MSC this year holds its first session on Friday, February 6, 2009 at 16:00, an earlier start in the weekend than in past years. The conference closes Sunday, February 8, around noon. The organizers hope Secretary of Defense Gates will attend as he has in past years and their direct Congressional contacts reportedly have said that Senator McCain will lead the CODEL, joined by Senator Lieberman and others whom the Senators will select. The MSC organizers invited Secretary of State-designate Clinton and Bavarian Minister President Horst Seehofer invited President-elect Obama, but the organizers realize their participation would be unprecedented. Other prominent Americans will attend. The MSC expects Chancellor Merkel to participate, and they believe French President Sarkozy (close hold) is leaning strongly toward coming, as is Afghan President Karzai, but not Russian President Medvedev. The Russians appear to be awaiting decisions on the composition of the USDEL. The draft agenda (subject to change) follows at paragraph 10. End Summary. The Traditional Conference Matures -------------- ¶2. (SBU) German Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger, the new leader of the Munich Security Conference (MSC),has acknowledged the traditional "focus on transatlantic and European security issues at the MSC will expand to include other global and regional issues affecting international peace and stability." The MSC will open earlier this year than in past years, on Friday, February 6, and it will sport new elements inside familiar outlines. One of these is a Young Leaders Roundtable on Security Policy (YLR) that will convene a day earlier, on February 5, and run through the MSC. (NOTE: Ambassador Ischinger bio: https://www.intelink.gov/diplopedia/ index.pthp?title=Category:Germany_Biography.) The US has a Special Relationship to the MSC -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Speaking Roles for USDEL: The organizers have acknowledged repeatedly the special US-German relationship at this conference. They want to maintain it even as the MSC matures. The organizers expect high-level USG speakers will address the MSC and, they hope, the YLR. They want to provide appropriate, prominent speaking roles for high level USDEL members. These speaking opportunities will emerge in bilateral discussions as the conference plans mature. ¶4. (SBU) USG Invitees: The organizers have invited President-elect Obama, Secretary of Defense Gates, and Secretary of State-designate Clinton. (Note: The MSC is not conceived as a Summit. Neither a U.S President nor a sitting Secretary of State has ever attended. End Note). They have invited National Security Advisor-designate Jones, and James Steinberg. The MSC organizers understand from their own Congressional contacts that Senator McCain will again lead the CODEL, joined by Senator Lieberman. The MSC has invited Senators Biden, Hagel, and Lugar, as well as Representatives Harman and Tauscher. ¶5. (SBU) Other US Invitees: Mission Germany notes that the MSC attracts other influential Americans in addition to the official USDEL and CODEL. Private participating Americans (such as former Secretary of State Kissinger) are often affiliated with the CODEL or USDEL, making this event unique for our delegations in many respects. Other delegations are similarly rich with notable participants in the MUNICH 00000384 002.2 OF 004 security and foreign policy fields. ¶6. (U) Bilateral Consultations: The MSC presents many opportunities for bilateral consultations between members of the USDEL and members of other delegations. ConGen Munich will make appropriate logistical arrangements to facilitate these meetings, in close consultation with our delegations. ¶7. (SBU) SecDef Cocktail Reception: Mission Germany recalls the successful cocktail reception hosted in the past by the Secretary of Defense for Members of the German Bundestag (Parliament) and suggests repeating it this year, if time permits, and considering adding other selected guests, as appropriate. ¶8. (SBU) Meeting with the Bavarian CSU: The MSC organizers are discussing with the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) if and when CSU representatives will meet for discussions with senior members of the US Delegation on the opening day of the conference. This is a session first instituted in 2006 and widely regarded as a useful event. The CSU is a member of the Federal coalition government. CSU Secretary General Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg would most likely lead the discussion for the CSU (Guttenberg bio: http://intelink.gov/diplopedia/ index.php?title=Karl_Theodor_Freiherr_zu_Gutt enberg) High-Level Invitees from Other Countries -------------- ¶9. (SBU) German Chancellor Merkel, FM Steinmeier, and DefMin Jung will lead the German delegation. The MSC organizers believe French President Sarkozy will come, as well as Afghan President Karzai. The Russians have told the MSC organizers that President Medvedev would probably not come unless his American counterpart were there. Depending on the leadership of the USDEL, Russia could send FM Lavrov and/or DefMin Serdukov. Russian PM Putin has not been invited. Polish PM Tusk is participating. Georgian FM Tkeshalashvili has been invited. Schedule and Topics of Sessions -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Here are the draft schedule and topics. CAVEAT: this schedule is subject to change and should not be disseminated outside the USG at this time. Thursday, February 5 -------------- Pre-conference event: Young Leaders Roundtable (YLR) on Security Policy. (US speaker will be invited to address the YLR on Thursday or Friday morning). Friday, February 6 -------------- Time TBD: USDEL Meeting with the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) (TBD) Morning: Young Leaders Roundtable on Security Policy continues (US speaker will be invited). 16:00 - 19:00: First Plenary Session of MSC. "Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and the Future of Nuclear Weapons: Is Zero Possible?" Opening statement by Ambassador Ischinger. Keynote Statement by German FM Steinmeier, answered by Henry Kissinger (confirmed). Thereafter: High Level Panel Discussion (panel members TBD) and interactive dialogue with participants. MUNICH 00000384 003.2 OF 004 19:00: Reception and Dinner hosted by the MSC organizers. Evening: No-host cocktails in one of the hotel bars. Saturday, February 7 -------------- 9:00 - 13:00: Second Plenary Session. "Towards a New European Security Architecture." This Session will feature set speeches by panelists, including German Chancellor Merkel; French President Sarkozy (CLOSE HOLD PARTICIPATION AT THIS TIME); Polish PM Tusk; High Level American (TBD); High Level Russian (TBD) 13:00 - 14:30 Lunch hosted by the MSC organizers. 14:30 - 16:00: Second Plenary Session continued: Reactions to morning speeches by panelists and participants. 16:30 - 18:30: Two concurrent "breakout" panel discussions. Breakout Panel 1: Managing Instability: Georgia, Ukraine, and the Western Balkans. Breakout Panel 2: Managing Instability: The Crisis of Global Governance. 20:00: Dinner hosted by the Bavarian Minister President Horst Seehofer. (Seehofer bio: https://www.intelink.gov/diplopedia/ index.pthp?title=Category:Germany_Biography). Evening: No-host cocktails in one of the hotel bars. Sunday, February 8 -------------- 9:00 - 12:00: Fourth Plenary Session: Mission Impossible? Afghanistan and the Future Strategy of NATO. Panel, including President Karzai (TBC),German DefMin Jung (TBC),High Level USDEL member (TBC),followed by discussion. Followed by Amb. Ischinger's closing remarks. 12:00 (TBC) Informal Closing lunch. ¶11. (SBU) Conference Facilities and Socializing Facilities: a) The MSC will again use the Bayerischer Hof Hotel as its headquarters and main conference venue. Seating will be extremely limited again this year as the conference organizers want to maintain the intimate character of the MSC and they must also respect the size limits of the venue. The MSC will also use nearby public conference rooms of the Hypovereins Bank (HVB),just across a small street from the hotel. Conference organizers are consulting closely with the Bavarian and German authorities on security arrangements and agreed to work closely with the RSO and Consulate staff. The MSC plans to use the HVB building for one of the panel discussions and for the Friday dinner and Saturday lunch. b) Evening/Late Night Cocktails: The MSC considers arranging evening cocktail gatherings so that participants can meet informally and continue discussions after dinner. ¶12. (U) Munich Young Leaders Round Table on Security Policy (YLR), February 5 - 8: For a pre-conference event, the MSC has invited 25 young leaders (from Germany, NATO member states, Partnership for Peace Member States, Member States in the Mediterranean Dialogue and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative) to come to Munich one day earlier for a program and debate forum designed especially for them. On the morning of February 6, the MSC hopes that a high-level member or members from the US Delegation will address the Young Leaders before the formal opening of the MSC that afternoon. The Young Leaders then MUNICH 00000384 004.2 OF 004 join the MSC as Observers after their own program ends. The Koerber Foundation is organizing the YLR (Official link to the Young Leaders Roundtable: http://www.koerber-Stiftung.de/ projekte/dialog_und_verstaendigung/ netzwerk_aussenpolitik/myl/index.html). ¶13. (SBU) Dealing with Public Protest: For the first time, the MSC organizers and the leadership of both PAX CHRISTI and the Friedenskonference and have invited one representative from these peace groups to come to the MSC as an official observer. Other protestors, such as "Attack," and groups organized by a Mr. Schreer, have refused to engage with the MSC and the organizers expect them to stage public protests as they have in the past. ¶14. (U) ConGen Munich coordinated this cable with Embassy Berlin. ¶15. (U) Track Munich reporting at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. NELSON