GERMANY/BAVARIAN POLITICS: THE ASCENSION OF MINISTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000354 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV INRB GM SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN POLITICS: THE ASCENSION OF MINISTER PRESIDENT HORST SEEHOFER SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Politically resilient Horst Seehofer, elected Christian Social Union (CSU) chairman on October 25 and Bavarian Minister President on October 27, now has the challenging task of resurrecting his much-weakened party in the months leading up the September 27, 2009 Bundestag elections. Nobody in the CSU has been more identified with the social issues portfolio of the CSU. His critics have characterized him as the "ninth minister of the Social Democratic Party (SPD)" in Chancellor Merkel's federal cabinet. His style is populist, charismatic, and maverick. Detailed biographic data follow in paragraph 6. An analysis of Seehofer's tenure as Agriculture Minister reported Septel. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) The CSU will look to reform its message and presentation in order to resonate with a 21st century Bavaria, reassert its supremacy at home, and restore its influence on the national stage. The party has put its hopes in Horst Seehofer. For over twenty years, Seehofer held a variety of political offices in Bonn and Berlin, and he comes with political baggage. Since a close brush with death in 2002 from the life-threatening illness myocarditis, he has more than once re-emerged after being all but written-off as a political player. Sources close to Chancellor Merkel have told us that he annoys her and that she has only tolerated his serving as her Federal Agriculture Minister since former Minister President Edmund Stoiber insisted Seehofer get the job in 2005. Revelations in 2007 of an extramarital affair in Berlin -- replete with baby -- deeply offended the Catholic sensibilities and leadership of the CSU, but it has turned out that the party rank-and-file remained loyal. Today, Seehofer owes his sudden comeback, unthinkable before the Bavarian state election on September 28, to their despair. Deeply traumatized by the loss of its half-century absolute majority in Bavaria, the CSU cast about for a new leader and -- rather quickly -- found it in him. -------------- Seehofer's Positions: Vague and Contradictory -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Seehofer can claim only modest achievements as Federal Agriculture Minister, the post from which he just resigned. (Analyzed in more detail SEPTEL.) He was able to keep his name in the press and used his position to rehabilitate his image. For example, when he assumed office, he was a public supporter of genetically engineered crops. However, when protests by GreenPeace and organic farmers drew widespread attention, he reversed his public stance on the issue, sensing political opportunities. His rhetorical skills and his readiness to listen won him much support in the public arena. (Note: As Minister-President of Bavaria he is legally prohibited from holding a national ministerial position. End note.) -------------- A Jolly Soul, A Good Talker, A Self-Promoter -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Seehofer is a natural politician, performing well on talk shows as well as in beer tents. At the same time he has been accused of being a loner, an egotist and an opportunist. He has never left any doubt about his interest in becoming party chairman, but it is likely that not even Seehofer himself ever dreamed of becoming CSU party chairman and Minister President simultaneously, following in the footsteps of Franz Josef Strauss and Edmund Stoiber. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) Seehofer still has work to do to convince his critics, who took a leap of faith electing him party chairman with 90 percent of the vote and Minister President with only four dissenting votes from the CSU and FDP coalition. He is a Berlin import who insists on his independence and rejects old boys' networks. Political observers are eagerly waiting for his first government declaration on November ¶13. Two important challenges lie ahead - a good result in the European Parliament elections in June 2009 and a return to old CSU strength in the national elections in September 2009. This is a precondition for a replacement of the current grand coalition with a CDU/CSU/FDP coalition. End Comment. -------------- Biographical Information MUNICH 00000354 002 OF 002 -------------- ¶6. Horst Seehofer is the first Bavarian Minister-President without a university degree. He is a graduate of the Bayerischen Verwaltungsschule (Bavarian School of Administration) in public management. Seehofer was born July 4, 1949, the son of a truck driver/construction worker in Ingolstadt, a city at Bavaria's center, part of the district of Upper Bavaria but close to Franconia. He first entered the Bundestag in 1980; in 1986, CSU chairman Theo Waigel engaged him as secretary in the CDU/CSU-FDP coalition talks. From 1983 to 1989 he was spokesman for social affairs of the CSU caucus in Bonn. From 1989 to 1992, he served as Parliamentary State Secretary at the Ministry for Labor and Social Affairs. On May 6, 1992, Chancellor Helmut Kohl nominated him Federal Minister for Health, a position he held until 1998. In this capacity, he started a number of reform projects, such as higher contributions for patients to health carriers as well as budget cuts for medical doctors and hospitals. Although his opponents had to concede he was one of the few experts on the German health system, medical doctors still resent his rough savings course. Open opposition to Angela Merkel's idea of a "per capita flat rate" in 2003 cost him the position as deputy CDU/CSU caucus chairman in Berlin. In 2005, he gave up a new job with the so-called "VdK" (an interest group for patients, handicapped, and retirees) to become Federal Minister of Agriculture, Food and Consumer Protection. Seehofer was CSU deputy party chairman from 1994 until being elected Chairman last week. ¶7. (U) Seehofer is married to his second wife and has three grown children. He also has a baby girl from an extramarital affair who was born in 2007. He is a model-train enthusiast. ¶8. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with Embassy Berlin. ¶9. (U) Track previous reporting from Munich at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. Crockart