GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS - HISTORIC VOTE COULD END AN ERA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000319 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS - HISTORIC VOTE COULD END AN ERA OR CONFIRM BUSINESS AS USUAL -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Bavarian voters go to the polls September 28, but the election could have an impact beyond Bavaria's borders. If the ruling Christian Social Union (CSU) falls below its own goal of 50 percent of the vote, it could scuttle the careers of the CSU leadership duo and shake up the local government. After forty-six years of holding an absolute majority in the state and one year before the German national elections, a bad CSU result would not only change the balance in the Bundesrat right away but also be an early sign of worsening prospects for a center-right national coalition in 2009. End Summary. -------------- The Big 5-0: The CSU's Must-Have Target -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The Bavarian state election on September 28 is rousing voters not with hot topics but with tantalizing "what-if" speculations on how the political landscape in Bavaria and Germany might morph depending on the strength of the showing by the Christian Social Union (CSU). Three questions dominate: a) will the CSU retain absolute control of the Landtag (parliament),b) are there signs that the new SPD leadership will improve its popularity, and c) if the CSU gets less than 50 percent of the vote, what will be the national repercussions? ¶3. (SBU) The CSU has singlehandedly led Bavaria for 46 years, purported to be the longest run for a party in all of Europe. To drive the point home, the CSU's ad campaign emphasizes that the CSU is Bavaria and Bavaria is CSU. In an historic shift, fifty percent of voters are reportedly undecided, apparently torn between a yearning for change for its own sake and a fear of changing a winning combination synonymous with prosperity. The CSU fears having to share power with a coalition partner such as the FDP. A sense of entitlement mixed with fear of the unknown could drive a decisive number of CSU voters to the polls and put the CSU over the top. Moreover, owing to the arcane formulas that govern filling Landtag seats, it is unlikely that the CSU will have to share power with a coalition partner even if the CSU comes in just under 50 percent. If votes divide as polls suggest, five political parties will enter the Landtag: CSU, SPD (Social Democratic Party) and Greens, along with a smattering of FDP (Free Democratic Party) and Independents ("Freie Waehler"). It is still open whether The Left Party will clear the five percent threshold. If votes split as expected among various parties, even a showing of around 47 percent by the CSU might secure an absolute CSU majority in the Landtag. Most unlikely is a multi-party coalition led by the SPD, although this is the dream of SPD leader Franz Maget. The new SPD leadership of former Labor Minister Franz Muentefering, as SPD Chairman-designee and Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has not yet managed to improve the party's 20 percent standing in the Bavarian polls. -------------- Analysis of Voter Concerns: Worries of the Rich and Famous -------------- ¶3. (SBU) At what may be the worst possible moment for the CSU, the global financial crisis hit just a week before the election. The CEO of the Bavarian State Bank (BayernLB) had to concede that it had lent Euro 300 million to Lehman Brothers, bringing the bank's losses in the current crisis to Euro 5.2 billion. A Landtag (Bavarian parliament) investigative committee already looked into the scandal earlier this year, trying to find out the extent of CSU chairman (and Bavarian Finance Minister) Erwin Huber's involvement. The financial debacle might cost the CSU a decisive percentage point in the returns. ¶4. (SBU) Besides this, Bavarian voters seem more interested in the American election than in their own, according to both press reports and an informal show of 500 hands at a recent Amerika Haus mock Republican versus Democrat debate in Munich. Enjoying legendary prosperity, Bavarian voters have been half-heartedly debating what can be characterized as the problems of the well-to-do, such as the new smoking ban, overcrowded schools, continued use of nuclear power, or the failure to build the much-hyped maglev Transrapid train. The opposition parties have tried to rally voters against what they have cast as the CSU's perceived arrogance. Heavier than all this, however, weighs the impression that Bavaria has lost clout on the national and international political stage. The leadership duo of Minister President Guenther Beckstein and CSU party chairman Erwin Huber is less impressive and powerful than its predecessors, MUNICH 00000319 002 OF 002 famous national leaders like Edmund Stoiber, Theo Waigel or Franz Josef Strauss. -------------- National Fallout from a Weak CSU Showing -------------- ¶5. (SBU) A weak CSU showing in the elections would have both local and national ramifications. Most immediately, it could end the careers of Beckstein and Huber, the latter of whom has had federal cabinet aspirations. Nationally, a CSU "defeat" would have the immediate effect of reordering party proportional representation in the Bundesrat (the senate),decreasing CSU representation and increasing other party representation. This could affect the balance of support in the next German Presidential elections in May 2009, potentially improving SPD candidate Gesine Schwan's chances against incumbent Horst Koehler (CDU). ¶6. (SBU) This negative trend could also have a long-term effect on the outsized standing of the CSU at the federal level, and, should the trend continue, it could also produce a decrease in the number of CSU Bundestag deputies after the 2009 Bundestag elections. Stronger blocs would pay less attention to the CSU when filling federal ministerial and other important positions. A weakened CSU would be less able to defend Bavarian interests at the federal level and could result in a less advantageous agreement with the CDU in a future CDU-led government. ¶7. (SBU) A weak CSU could also damage the sister party, CDU, on the national level, dimming the Chancellor's prospects for forming a center-right governing coalition with the Free Democrats after 2009 elections. CSU politicians regularly point out that their strength in Bavaria makes them a disproportionate contributor to the size of Merkel's CDU/CSU caucus in the Bundestag. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The powers of inertia are strong, in Bavaria probably even more than elsewhere. The current uncertainties may favor the CSU, motivating the party faithful to vote. There is also the lack of viable alternatives. Despite a well-liked opposition leader, the SPD seems unable to overcome its 20 percent low point in the polls, and small parties like the FDP and Independents in Bavaria are collecting protest votes rather than voter magnets based on their own virtues. Still, any figure for the CSU starting with a "4" instead of a "5" could lead to an interesting upheaval in local (and potentially national) German politics. ¶9. The Munich Consulate General coordinated this report with Embassy Berlin. ¶10. Find Munich's previous reporting at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. NELSON