GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS: CSU WOOS VOTERS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L MUNICH 000308

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2008
TAGS: PREL PROG GM
SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS: CSU WOOS VOTERS WITH
"IF IT AIN'T BROKE DON'T FIX IT" APPROACH

REF: A. BERLIN 1231

B. MUNICH 257

C. MUNICH 219

Classified By: Eric Nelson, Consul General, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (U) Summary: Heading into the first regional election
after the leadership shakeup in the Social Democratic Party
(SPD) (see reftel),the Christian Social Union (CSU)
leadership in Bavaria is extolling the virtues of Bavaria's
relatively prosperous status quo. The CSU is scrambling to
maintain the absolute majority the party has enjoyed for
nearly 50 years in the state parliament (Landtag). At a
well-scripted campaign rally before 750 invited
party-faithful in Munich on September 11, seventeen days
before the elections, Minister President Guenther Beckstein
and his team said they seek a confirmation of traditional CSU
majority rule, but they warned that every vote would count to
maintain an absolute majority. End summary.

Pyrotechnic Packaging, Pedestrian Delivery
--------------


2. (SBU) Introduced with strobe lights, loud rock music, and
billowing stage smoke, Beckstein and CSU chairman Erwin Huber
still delivered pedestrian stump speeches promoting the CSU
as the party of "traditional values mixed with innovation."
Arguing that the CSU was a way of life and not just a
political party, Beckstein and Huber urged voters to "vote
for Bavaria." After reminding voters of the CSU's role in
German reunification and invoking the name of legendary
former party leader Franz Josef Strauss, they claimed the CSU
was the only guarantor of the strong and singular Bavaria
that finds itself at the pinnacle of German and European
prosperity after "half a century of consistent and stable CSU
rule." A tired-looking Chancellor Merkel appeared in a brief
video spot pledging support for the CSU.

CSU as Defender of Prosperity in Bavaria and in Berlin
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Huber praised Beckstein as a "true man of the
people" who had just returned from an extended August bus
tour throughout the State with his wife at his side. They
called for more focus and funding for education, more effort
to get foreigners to integrate, and a continuing high
investment in new technologies to make Bavaria one of the
five most innovative regions in the world. At the same time,
they said the CSU would fight to keep crucifixes hanging in
classrooms, block the establishment of new holidays based on
Muslim observances, and do more to support families. After a
mother of nine was brought on stage with a babe in arms,
Beckstein encouraged Bavarians to have more children and said
the CSU stood for traditional family values. Neither
Beckstein nor Huber mentioned foreign policy issues on this
night.

CSU Sees Challenges from SPD, FDP, and Left Parties
-------------- --------------


4. (U) A recent poll from the GMS opinion research center
predicted the CSU would receive 49 percent of the vote, and
earlier polls have also lingered at about 50 percent.
Another poll among representatives of typical middle class
professionals indicated that the CSU is losing ground in this
important voter segment. Working to improve these numbers,
Beckstein asserted that the CSU is Bavaria's unique party and
is the only true defender of Bavarian interests both at home
and in Berlin. He warned that the national parties would
treat Bavaria like any other German state and drag it down
from its summit into the vast, common middle. As for the
SPD, Beckstein said it had made no effort to distance itself
from the Left Party and could not talk about new beginnings
unless it stopped SPD Hesse leader Andrea Ypsilanti from
seeking the office of Hesse minister president with the
support of the Left Party. He derided the Greens using the
slang term "Multikulti" (multi-culturalists). Although the
CSU recently surprised with the official decision to reverse
itself and oppose biotech, he left denunciation of it to a
brief video spot featuring a farmer. Beckstein warned that
the Free Democrats (FDP) had no influence in Berlin and that
it would endanger the effectiveness of Bavaria's internal
security apparatus by placing too much emphasis on personal
data security and privacy. Finally, he excoriated the Freie
Waehler - a popular party at the communal level that might
win a seat in the Landtag this time - as a group with "quite
literally no program or platform."


5. (SBU) The CSU has taken aim at the Left Party, which has
already made inroads into several western states and is
waging a strong campaign in Bavaria, where it is already
polling at 4% -- one point below the threshold for entry into

parliament. In recent public remarks earlier in September,
Huber called on his party to fight a "crusade" against the
Left Party. This remark irritated the Christian Democrats,
CSU's sister party, and a CDU representative told Embassy
Berlin it was a regrettable choice of words, especially in
Germany. At a campaign rally in the Bavarian city of
Rosenheim recently, Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine
himself referred to "Christian values" when calling for
taxation of higher income. He reportedly received loud
applause when he called for the withdrawal of German troops
from Afghanistan.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) This is the first regional election after the
shakeup in the SPD, and analysts will look at the results
here for first indications of where voter sentiments might go
in the national elections next year. The CSU paid plenty for
pyrotechnics and staging at its rally kicking off the "hot
end phase" of the State election campaign but the event came
off as a rote exercise that seemed to leave few truly
energized. There were empty seats in the relatively small
venue. With the party presenting itself as an indispensable
element in Bavarian life and with much to be proud of, the
CSU sees its sense of ownership existentially threatened by
the prospect of falling below the absolute majority mark this
year.


7. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with
Embassy Berlin.


8. (U) Find previous reporting from Munich at
http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any.
NELSON