GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS: CSU WOOS VOTERS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L MUNICH 000308 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2008 TAGS: PREL PROG GM SUBJECT: GERMANY/BAVARIAN ELECTIONS: CSU WOOS VOTERS WITH "IF IT AIN'T BROKE DON'T FIX IT" APPROACH REF: A. BERLIN 1231 ¶B. MUNICH 257 ¶C. MUNICH 219 Classified By: Eric Nelson, Consul General, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) Summary: Heading into the first regional election after the leadership shakeup in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) (see reftel),the Christian Social Union (CSU) leadership in Bavaria is extolling the virtues of Bavaria's relatively prosperous status quo. The CSU is scrambling to maintain the absolute majority the party has enjoyed for nearly 50 years in the state parliament (Landtag). At a well-scripted campaign rally before 750 invited party-faithful in Munich on September 11, seventeen days before the elections, Minister President Guenther Beckstein and his team said they seek a confirmation of traditional CSU majority rule, but they warned that every vote would count to maintain an absolute majority. End summary. Pyrotechnic Packaging, Pedestrian Delivery -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Introduced with strobe lights, loud rock music, and billowing stage smoke, Beckstein and CSU chairman Erwin Huber still delivered pedestrian stump speeches promoting the CSU as the party of "traditional values mixed with innovation." Arguing that the CSU was a way of life and not just a political party, Beckstein and Huber urged voters to "vote for Bavaria." After reminding voters of the CSU's role in German reunification and invoking the name of legendary former party leader Franz Josef Strauss, they claimed the CSU was the only guarantor of the strong and singular Bavaria that finds itself at the pinnacle of German and European prosperity after "half a century of consistent and stable CSU rule." A tired-looking Chancellor Merkel appeared in a brief video spot pledging support for the CSU. CSU as Defender of Prosperity in Bavaria and in Berlin -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Huber praised Beckstein as a "true man of the people" who had just returned from an extended August bus tour throughout the State with his wife at his side. They called for more focus and funding for education, more effort to get foreigners to integrate, and a continuing high investment in new technologies to make Bavaria one of the five most innovative regions in the world. At the same time, they said the CSU would fight to keep crucifixes hanging in classrooms, block the establishment of new holidays based on Muslim observances, and do more to support families. After a mother of nine was brought on stage with a babe in arms, Beckstein encouraged Bavarians to have more children and said the CSU stood for traditional family values. Neither Beckstein nor Huber mentioned foreign policy issues on this night. CSU Sees Challenges from SPD, FDP, and Left Parties -------------- -------------- ¶4. (U) A recent poll from the GMS opinion research center predicted the CSU would receive 49 percent of the vote, and earlier polls have also lingered at about 50 percent. Another poll among representatives of typical middle class professionals indicated that the CSU is losing ground in this important voter segment. Working to improve these numbers, Beckstein asserted that the CSU is Bavaria's unique party and is the only true defender of Bavarian interests both at home and in Berlin. He warned that the national parties would treat Bavaria like any other German state and drag it down from its summit into the vast, common middle. As for the SPD, Beckstein said it had made no effort to distance itself from the Left Party and could not talk about new beginnings unless it stopped SPD Hesse leader Andrea Ypsilanti from seeking the office of Hesse minister president with the support of the Left Party. He derided the Greens using the slang term "Multikulti" (multi-culturalists). Although the CSU recently surprised with the official decision to reverse itself and oppose biotech, he left denunciation of it to a brief video spot featuring a farmer. Beckstein warned that the Free Democrats (FDP) had no influence in Berlin and that it would endanger the effectiveness of Bavaria's internal security apparatus by placing too much emphasis on personal data security and privacy. Finally, he excoriated the Freie Waehler - a popular party at the communal level that might win a seat in the Landtag this time - as a group with "quite literally no program or platform." ¶5. (SBU) The CSU has taken aim at the Left Party, which has already made inroads into several western states and is waging a strong campaign in Bavaria, where it is already polling at 4% -- one point below the threshold for entry into parliament. In recent public remarks earlier in September, Huber called on his party to fight a "crusade" against the Left Party. This remark irritated the Christian Democrats, CSU's sister party, and a CDU representative told Embassy Berlin it was a regrettable choice of words, especially in Germany. At a campaign rally in the Bavarian city of Rosenheim recently, Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine himself referred to "Christian values" when calling for taxation of higher income. He reportedly received loud applause when he called for the withdrawal of German troops from Afghanistan. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) This is the first regional election after the shakeup in the SPD, and analysts will look at the results here for first indications of where voter sentiments might go in the national elections next year. The CSU paid plenty for pyrotechnics and staging at its rally kicking off the "hot end phase" of the State election campaign but the event came off as a rote exercise that seemed to leave few truly energized. There were empty seats in the relatively small venue. With the party presenting itself as an indispensable element in Bavarian life and with much to be proud of, the CSU sees its sense of ownership existentially threatened by the prospect of falling below the absolute majority mark this year. ¶7. (U) Consulate General Munich coordinated this report with Embassy Berlin. ¶8. (U) Find previous reporting from Munich at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. NELSON