CDU/CSU RIVALRY AND UNITY: MERKEL NEEDS BOTH FOR ELECTORAL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 MUNICH 000257 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV GM SUBJECT: CDU/CSU RIVALRY AND UNITY: MERKEL NEEDS BOTH FOR ELECTORAL SUCCESS -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. The July 18-19 CSU party convention demonstrated that recent media reports about a deep split between the CDU and CSU have been overblown. In a skillful speech before the CSU party congress, Chancellor Merkel brushed aside recent CDU/CSU tensions, praising the CSU's achievements as a model for all of Germany, and demonstrating that she knows how to win the hearts of the rebellious sister party. In the face of polls that continue to show the CSU could potentially lose its forty-six-year-long absolute majority, party chairman Erwin Huber and Bavarian Minister President Guenther Beckstein have vowed to fight back, and a sense of confidence for a successful election result seems to be returning to the party rank and file. ¶2. The CDU/CSU needs a certain amount of disunity to maximize its national strength. Past experience has shown that the CSU is strongest when it can play the card of Bavaria's uniqueness. By doing so, some collateral damage to unity with the CDU sister party is inevitable. However, a strong CSU showing in Bavaria's September 2008 elections is a prerequisite for the CDU/CSU to be successful in 2009 national elections. Chancellor Merkel seems to be well aware of this fact and is able to play along to strengthen her position on the federal level. End summary. -------------- Campaign Entering Hot Phase -------------- ¶3. The CSU started the hot phase of its campaign in the run-up to the September 28 Bavarian state election with a party convention in Nuremberg July 18/19. Party chairman Erwin Huber and Bavarian M-P Guenther Beckstein vowed to fight to maintain the CSU's absolute majority which they said was a prerequisite for Bavaria's standing as one of the world's most prosperous regions. A change of government would lead to a dramatic downturn, they warned. While recent opinion polls indicate that up to six political parties might in fact enter Bavarian parliament this fall, the potential newcomers -- FDP, Independents and Left Party -- have too little in common with the opposition SPD and Greens to make a change of government a realistic option. However, the CSU is deeply concerned about the mere possibility of falling short of the 50 percent threshold and will fight tooth and nail to defend Bavaria as Europe's singular one-party powerhouse. -------------- ;Sisterly Love -------------- ¶4. Recent reports about a deep split between the CDU and CSU appear to be overblown. The CDU/CSU relationship has never been easy and free of tensions, and the CDU needs an independent CSU party that can win majorities by identifying closely with the state of Bavaria and local interests. Without a strong CSU result in Bavaria, the CDU would not be in a position to win national elections. It has always been the CDU leaders' task to protect the CSU's independence and strength without at the same time caving in to CSU demands. In her keynote address at the CSU convention, Chancellor Merkel skillfully avoided mentioning the current bone of contention between the two parties -- the CSU's request to reinstitute full commuter subsidies for taxpayers, which Merkel vehemently rejects. The Chancellor instead dwelled on the many areas of CDU/CSU unity. At the same time, she praised the CSU's achievements, concluding that "Bavaria already has reached the top, something the rest of Germany is still striving for." She also paid tribute to the legendary Bavarian Franz Josef Strauss whom she praised as a key contributor to German unity. Finally, she made an extra concession to CSU chairman Huber, praising his tax reform concept -- "more net incomes for everyone" -- as an important initiative that will be fully integrated into a joint CDU/CSU concept next year. ¶5. At the same time, many CSUers have voiced concern about recent attacks (mainly by Minister President Beckstein) on Merkel, commenting that a strategy that includes attacks on the most popular politician in Germany might in fact backfire rather than win elections. The CSU should not forget who the real opponent is: Social Democrat (SPD) Chairman Kurt Beck and his party. In particular, Berlin-based CSU politicians such as Federal Ministers Michael Glos and Horst Seehofer and CSU Bundestag Caucus chair Peter Ramsauer insist that the CSU should not push the controversy too far. -------------- Brotherly Love -------------- ¶6. The CSU convention highlighted that Huber and Beckstein will either win together or fall together, as it is likely that neither MUNICH 00000257 002 OF 002 will survive an electoral disaster. Seehofer, who was defeated by Huber one year earlier, may see a chance to become CSU party chairman after all if the CSU falters this Autumn. ¶7. Surprisingly, Beckstein gave a strong speech at the convention, one that conveyed optimism and rallied the CSU rank-and-file. He reminded the convention that all other political parties in Bavaria have just one common denominator -- the fight against the CSU. Beckstein is not the charismatic leader that Edmund Stoiber was in his prime, but people see him as reliable. In a July 18 editorial, the "Sueddeutsche Zeitung" noted that the CSU might not be facing difficulties today had it not obtained a two-thirds majority in the 2003 election. This monopoly on power might have alienated the party from its voters. For the upcoming election, fifty percent is the goal. Somewhat less may be enough to retain an absolute majority of Landtag deputies, but the psychological consequences would be disastrous. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. The party convention made clear that the CSU is fighting with its back to the wall. For the first time in decades it is in real danger of losing its absolute majority. Recent CSU politicking has also shown that a wounded Bavarian lion may even attack its allies in an effort to regain strength -- something which should not come as a surprise to the CDU. Erwin Huber demonstrated political savvy with his tax reform concept and his call for the return of commuter subsidies at a time of soaring oil prices, thus identifying a campaign issue that might work. Polls have recently started predicting better results for the CSU. This is a minor fiscal issue, and the CSU still cannot achieve this without agreement from the CDU. However, tilting against that windmill still motivates the party base, adds to their identity, perhaps inspires voters, and challenges the Chancellor in a relatively benign way. Lock-step unity with the CDU would detract from CSU "specialness" and weaken the party. The Chancellor understands this and is able to play along to strengthen her position on the federal level. ¶9. This report has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. ¶10. Previous reporting from Munich is available at http://www.intelink.sgov.gov/wiki/Portal:Germ any. NELSON